2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Ravens 34, Vikings 31
The Vikings started off hot here and had a double digit lead over the Ravens early. It was 17-3 heading into the last couple minutes of the first half before Lamar led another easy TD during the 2-minute drill. It was 17-10 at the half but the Vikings had been dominant.
The second half started with a bang as rookie Kene Nwangwu took a kick back 99 yards for a TD to extend the Vikings lead to 24-10. After that it was mostly downhill for Minnesota. They couldn't stop the Ravens to save their lives and before you could blink Baltimore was somehow up 31-24.
Minnesota finally put together another good drive to tie the game and managed to keep the Ravens from scoring with a minute left. Baltimore got the ball to start OT and had a good drive going, but Lamar had a pass batted at the line and intercepted. All the Vikings had to do was drive a few yards and kick a field goal for the win, but they couldn't even manage that. Baltimore got the ball back, and it was one chance too many for Lamar. Justin Tucker kicked the winning field goal yet again.
Maybe I'm the idiot, but there are two winning teams this year that I just cannot get fully behind. The Titans and the Ravens. I'm just never impressed when I watch them, but they keep winning so it's probably me that's wrong.
Personally, I think both teams are good but not great, not the type of team that should be a favorite to win the Superbowl, and yet here they both are leading the AFC right now. Lamar is just so hard to stop and has finally figured out how to come back when he's down in games, something that used to be a weakness for him.
I look at their schedule and I'm not impressed though. The only teams they've beaten solidly were the Broncos and Chargers. Every other win was either a comeback from way down or a lucky close win. For now though they have a sizeable lead on their North rivals, and it will be hard for any of them to catch Baltimore as they'll likely be beating up on each other. Unless Cleveland gets on a roll and starts pounding everyone I think Baltimore manages to walk away with 11-12 wins and a high seed in the playoffs.
Minnesota wants to be a good team, but they are clearly missing a few pieces still. The offense can be very good at times and then look very average for a few quarters. Very inconsistent still. The defense is much improved over last year but still not quite there. I think they probably put it together enough to get to 9-10 wins and a possible wild card spot, but they aren't taking down Green Bay this year.
Fantasy Notes
--Lamar Jackson (27-41 for 266 yards, 3 TD/2 INT, 21-120-0) is at his best in these evenly matched games where he doesn't get completely blown out but also can't build a big lead. He is the Ravens offense right now since their RB's are terrible. Where other QBs like Mahomes and Rodgers can struggle in fantasy on the rare occasions the passing game isn't working, Lamar is almost never held down because he can always use his legs to pile up points, especially in 4-pt leagues. Never overlook the high floor of running QBs like Lamar, Hurts, Watson, and very soon Trey Lance.
--The best RB for Baltimore is without a doubt Ty'Son Williams, but he's been relegated to the trash heap for reasons I will never understand. In his place Devonta Freeman (13-79-0, 2-4-2/3) is the lead back and doing a decent job now. Almost any RB can succeed if your QB is enough of a running threat, and Freeman is no exception.
If you need numbers at RB Freeman is a decent option right now. He's going to get about a dozen carries a game with a shot at a TD. That's better than you hope for with guys like David Johnson.
--I wouldn't try Le'Veon Bell (11-48-1) though. He looks completely shot and is clearly inferior to Freeman. That should tell you how far he's fallen.
--Marquise Brown (9-116-0/12) is quietly the #6 WR in ppr this year. Every game it seems like he either manages to hit 100 yards or a TD to put him over 15 points.
--Rookie Rashod Bateman (5-52-0/8) made his debut and is already the #2 WR for Baltimore. He looked fine. I couldn't really tell the difference between him and Devin Duvernay (2-8-1/2). He's a good player, but unless Brown gets injured his ceiling seems hard-capped in this offense.
--I've said it for years, Kirk Cousins (17-28 for 187, 2 TD/0 INT) is a great QB to have against inferior teams, but he just does not perform well against above average defenses. His schedule ahead has a few nice matchups, but for the most part it's filled with pretty good defenses. I wouldn't expect too many more big games from Captain Kirk this year.
--Dalvin Cook (17-110-0, 3-12-0/3) was fantastic here. He's never been my favorite runner and he gets hurt far too often, but when he's on the field he is very good. News broke this week that he's being accused of abuse by an ex-girlfriend, and with all the other stories about Watson, Ruggs, and Arnette floating around, this is potentially very bad.
You never know with these types of situations what to expect. This could get put on hold until more information comes out, or if the wrong type of info starts circulating, Cook could get released in a heartbeat. Until we know more you don't really have many options. If you're spooked then you can try and move him for something fair if there are any takers, but it's entirely possible you have to just hold him and hope for the best.
--Justin Jefferson (3-69-1/5) is the 15th ranked WR for ppr on the season and that feels like a disappointment based on where you had to draft him. I know RC has come to be quite impressed by him. I know he's good, but I just never walk away thinking he's a star. Maybe it's just this boring 1990's offense and Cousins holding him back. Diggs is certainly a good point for that argument.
--While Jefferson feels like a disappointment, Adam Thielen (2-6-1/7) probably feels like a nice value if you drafted him and he's only two spots higher than Jefferson at 13th on the year in ppr. Again, I feel like it's not any diminished skills by Thielen that's holding him back. He looks the same as he always has to me. He keeps catching TD's though, and as we've learned from Derrick Henry and Marquise Brown, you just have to keep riding that train while it lasts.
--Tyler Conklin (5-45-0/7) was likely a bit of a letdown after expectations got high about him facing the Ravens. It really wasn't a bad week though. As bad as the TE market has been, this stat line is nice to have every week. Conklin is definitely involved in the offense now. I like him to finish as a top 12 TE but more in the back end of that range.
--RC touched on it briefly, but you better get used to us bitching about Kene Nwangwu not getting enough touches the next 5-6 years. The guy is a physical specimen, but coaches know way more than us about who is good so I'm sure they'll keep him buried on special teams and maybe give him a carry or two per game.
In 2025 after he gets signed by the Patriots in free agency we'll all collectively lose our minds at the fantasy implications before we realize that the Patriots suck for RB fantasy numbers. He'll get stuck in a maddening rotation with three other backs for a couple years before bouncing around to the Bears, Giants, and Bengals for a couple seasons. Finally, in the year 2031 he will have a breakout year for the Chargers after coming off the bench behind main starter Breece Hall, and you can rest assured that FFM will be there to make sure you take him in the 15th round of redraft on the off chance that this time will be different.
IDP Notes
--Eric Kendricks (17 tackles) never gets mentioned as one of the best linebackers in the game, but he should. This guy has been one of the top tacklers in the league for years now. He's #4 on the year in tackles and not slowing down.
--Rookie safety Camryn Bynum (12 tackles, 1 pd) stepped in for Harrison Smith while he's out with COVID and was quite impressive. I really didn't expect him to look so good considering he's moving from college CB to NFL safety. He's got very good instincts for the position, decent athleticism, and ok tackling ability. Didn't look like a huge hitter but he gets guys down.
I really liked how he was always in a good position and seemed to have a good grasp of what the offense was doing. He nearly came up with an interception early because he read Lamar's eyes and broke on a ball intended for a receiver he wasn't even covering. He'll be a starter in short order and looks like a solid 10 year player based on this first impression.
Snap Counts of Interest
80 = Marquise Brown
65 = Rashod Bateman
41 = Devin Duvernay
57 = Devonta Freeman
23 = Le'Veon Bell
18 = Tyson Williams
48 = Adam Thielen
43 = Justin Jefferson
26 = KJ Osborn
47 = Tyler Conklin
18 = Luke Stocker
