2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Saints 13, Seahawks 10
So apparently the answer to the age old question of who wins in a game between two terrible QB's is...nobody. This game was exactly painful to watch. Geno Smith and Jameis Winston are two of the most godawful QB's I've ever had the displeasure to watch. With all the interesting options available at that position in the year 2021, how any team could have either of these guys as a starter or backup is beyond me. Suffice it to say that neither team is going to be doing much winning while these guys are at the helm.
I don't think I really need to do a complete recap of all the “action” (if it can be called that) in this game. The Seahawks got a lucky opening TD when DK Metcalf literally stiff-armed his defender to the ground and took the resulting easy catch 84 yards for a TD. After that the Saints muddled around with literally every other play targeted to Alvin Kamara and they finally managed to score just enough to hold on for a win.
I'll talk more about Kamara below, but real quick, this was awful coaching by Pete Carroll. There is just no excuse for letting Kamara be wide open on dump pass after dump pass when the Saints literally have no other viable receiving threats. I'm starting to think Carroll is in some trouble and could get fired this year. Why else would he finally come out this week and openly admit that Russell is a big reason why he's been successful in the NFL and lasted so long as a coach? He's trying to sound humble and suck up to the QB, because Russell has more power than Carroll does and will have a say in who the coach is.
I don't care what the Saints record is, this is not a good team. Beating the Seahawks without Russell Wilson is supposed to be some kind of statement game? Maybe a statement that they are terrible too. The schedule is about to turn much more difficult, and the Saints aren't going to survive it. This team is headed for about 8 wins, maybe less.
We've known the Seahawks were done since Wilson got hurt. He's likely going to be back relatively soon, but they are in too big a hole now and the team around him just isn't' good enough. I don't see how they make the playoffs, not in the NFC West. The Jaguars are currently getting +3.5 against the Seahawks this week. Might be a best bet of the week.
Fantasy Notes
--RC was about to have a conniption as we watched Alvin Kamara (20-51-0, 10-128-1/11) take half the total plays for NO here (31 out of 63 to be exact). Whenever I see a game like this I'm reminded of just how stupid coaches like Bienemy and Reid are. Anyone that makes excuses for why their star player didn't get the ball more is full of crap. It isn't hard. You literally just give it to them every play. Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp...it isn't complicated. There's no reason in the world why Tyreek Hill shouldn't be getting 12 targets every single game. (You see how boring this game was? I turned this recap into complaining about Tyreek...)
The problem for Seattle wasn't Kamara running the ball. He's not a very good interior runner, never has been. The issue was that he would float out of the backfield, catch the ball and turn upfield...and there was no defender within 10 yards of him! How does that happen? You don't know that Kamara is getting every play? You don't know that Jameis can't hit squat except the short dump pass? You're afraid of Adam Trautman and Tre'Quan Smith beating you down the field? It doesn't matter either way. Kamara is a RB1 purely on volume. He is the Saints' offense.
*RC NOTE: To Ross’s point...AK has never been a great interior runner, and thus the trade for Mark Ingram.
--Marquez Callaway (3-32-0/7) looks damn good. I'm not saying that to be funny or cute. He legit looks like a top 15-20 receiver. Trouble is Jameis can't hit the broadside of a barn with a handful of rice and it's dragging Callaway down. The Saints have four weaker pass defenses coming up, so I'm trying to hold Callaway where I can just in case, but it's really hit or miss with him right now.
In dynasty though I think we should be trying to acquire him super cheap. He's one of the most talented under the radar players available right now. He's most likely going to be the #1 WR after the team moves on from Michael Thomas next year. And there's no way Jameis is the starting QB for this team in 2022. I'm not sure he lasts much longer in 2021 before the team pulls the plug for Taysom. And if that happens then Callaway suddenly becomes quite usable in redraft as well. RC has Callaway in his top 10 Dynasty Stash list for a reason. If you can afford it in deep leagues, definitely grab him and hold for next year.
--DK Metcalf (2-96-1/5) got super lucky to get away with an obvious offensive PI here on his 84 yard TD. It saved his fantasy day. After that play though, he wasn't targeted again until much later in the game and only managed one more catch for 12 yards. So long as Geno is the QB he's going to struggle. The good news is Russ should be back sooner rather than later because he's one of the toughest, most hard working players in the NFL. So if you can acquire Metcalf from an antsy owner for cheap it could pay off nicely. Probably too hard to do though because of his one long play here on national tv.
--Everything else in this offense is dead until Russ comes back and even then Lockett will go back to being a sporadic WR2 but that's about it. If Alex Collins (16-35-0) is healthy then he should be a solid player to roll with. He was a bit banged up this week and split snaps with Rashaad Penny, but Collins still dominated the carries. I don't expect that to change, but it's something to monitor.
IDP Notes
--What a performance by Demario Davis (10 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 tfl, 1 pd). He's been one of the most underrated LB's in the league for years. Great to see him getting some recognition finally. He's the heart and soul of this Saints defense.
--Rookie LB Pete Werner (6 tackles) is coming on hot too. He has 29 total tackles the last 3 weeks as his snaps have gone up, and the number was only lower this week because the Seahawks ran so few plays. He's going to be a fixture of this defense for the next several years.
*RC NOTE: Davis with Werner emerging...that’s the reason we should start to fear the Saints run defense up with the Bucs run defense.
Rush Yds per game allowed (low-to-high):
#1 TB (67.4) , #2 NO (79.0)
Yards per carry allowed (low-to-high):
#1 NO (3.3), #3 TB (3.7 ypc)
Rushing TDs allowed (low-to-high):
#4 TB (3), #5 NO (5)
Snap Counts of Interest
68 = Marquez Callaway
41 = Tre'Quan Smith
32 = Kenny Stills
64 = Adam Trautman
26 = Garrett Griffin
22 = Alex Collins
20 = Rashaad Penny
12 = Travis Homer
