2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Packers, 24, Football Team 10
Washington went toe-to-toe with the Packers here…Green Bay had to scramble a little bit for this win. Because the Washington Football Team is the Washington Football Team, they did their best (and succeeded) to shoot themselves in the foot and hand the Packers the win.
Down 21-7 with 6 minutes left in the 3rd-quarter, Taylor Heinicke scrambled and raced off in the red zone and found a seam and was running to the goal line with an open score (to make the deficit 21-14) and decided to half dive/semi-slide with oncoming defenders, instead of crossing and taking the punishment after – but he fell too soon and his knee touched early, and the score was reversed setting up a 4th & inches at the goal line. Heinicke did a QB sneak, went nowhere, fumbled trying to extend it, reclaimed it…still short…turnover on downs.
Washington stopped Green Bay on the next drive, and then WFT went right down the field again and got into goal-to-go position and couldn’t score…going for it on 4th-down and incomplete turnover on downs. Washington played, arguably, their best game of 2021…should’ve been a lot closer but in the end it was a Packers two-score win.
Washington is going nowhere fast with Taylor Heinicke, but they have no choice. Ryan Fitzpatrick is weeks away (if that) and WFT will be out of the race, so why even make the switch? They should just trade Fitz on Monday in all the QB sloshing around that’s coming up. Ron Rivera loves Heinicke, so he’ll go down with the ship with him.
Rivera is so into ‘grinder’ stories, ‘grinder’ players that he’ll take/play lesser talented players, the ones who ‘really love football’ (per Rivera’s measuring stick). and lose a ton of games with them…but is happy to be working around other ‘grinders’. Rivera is a dead man in Washington, he’s dragging the team down the tubes…but it will probably be after 2023 season before Washington does anything about it. Washington’s ownership and management is in such a negative light, that they’ll just let Rivera fail extra hard so that when they have to make a move it will be obvious. Sorry, if you’re a Football Team fan (God help you…why would you give another penny or second of your time to that nightmare corporation?).
The best thing about Washington football team is the Philadelphia Eagles are even more poorly run, so maybe they won’t always finish in last place in the division the next 1-3 seasons. Washington is (2-5) on their way to 3-4 wins this season.
Green Bay is now (6-1) and unlucky to meet Arizona on TNF at Arizona without Allen Lazard and maybe without Davante Adams this week. Week 8 may kickoff the Green Bay fall from grace, and the subsequent rise of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. The Packers don’t appear to be getting David Bakhtiari back any time soon. This O-Line is struggling. They miss Jaire Alexander. I think the Packers are getting ready to fall.
If the Pack loses to Arizona and Minnesota beats Dallas this week, they might open a door to Minnesota. Both have a rough schedule ahead. We see GB losing four of their next 5 and finishing around 10 wins…which will likely win the division but Green Bay not up for any #1 seed/home field in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As we all know, Green Bay is heading to Arizona for a huge game…and two of their WRs are headline news…
1) We have to see if Davante Adams (6-76-1/7) can get cleared from COVID by THU, but when I first heard he was in COVID peril I thought…
2) …Allen Lazard (5-60-1/6) FINALLY gets his next chance at playing/starring without Davante there!!! And, of course, Lazard tests positive, and is unvaxxed, so he doesn’t get to clear in time, and he’s out already for TNF.
Lazard has zero luck. I’m going to lower Lazard in our recent Dynasty rankings for his ‘unlucky’ factor for the future. He didn’t get drafted as a rookie, when he should’ve been a top 100 pick. He wasted away for year+ on the practice squad until injury got him a shot to star for Green Bay…and he did on a memorable MNF game…and then immediately was buried again.
Last time Adams was out hurt, Lazard had a monster game as the new #1…but late in that game he tore his core muscle and was out for most of the season and didn’t come back right from there. SO, it’s only fitting this huge opportunity arises…and Lazard gets COVID too.
If Adams announced his retirement from football next week, and Aaron Rodgers said – good, I’ve been wanting to use Lazard as my #1 all along…that very moment Rodgers stopped speaking, Lazard would get hit by a runaway bus while sitting in his living room watching my Tuesday Night Video Q&A replay (that’s how I see it in this daydream scenario…you don’t know if it’s true or not).
Note: This was Lazard’s best game (Wk7) working WITH Adams in 2021…Lazard has been building for a couple weeks now and was reaching Flex option status, and now…not. Not for another week at least.
So, who is the top target for Rodgers if Davante is out, and with Lazard gone?
Before we speculate, please note – Arizona has the best coverage secondary and best defense in football, so whomever it is…they’re likely dead/overmatched.
The first option is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DNP)…but we don’t even know if he’ll be activated/ready for that game. Plus, MVS sucks…only good as a ‘forgotten in coverage’ deep ball guy hiding in the shadows of Adams getting all the attention. No Adams? Good Luck with MVS as your #1 WR at Arizona. It’s something, but I’m not super-excited…but that’s when he hits on one of his four 50+ yard plays per year.
The second option is Randall Cobb as the BFF of Rodgers, but Cobb is a shell of himself…and, again, the Arizona coverage will consume him. Amon-Ra St. Brown called; he wants Cobb to stop imitating him for FF results.
Perhaps, Bobby Tonyan (4-63-1/5)? Good thought, but oh wait…Arizona is even better/more hardcore shutting down the TE.
Without Adams, I suspect Aaron Rodgers will throw for 200 +/- yards and 1 TD…and a chunk of that going to the RBs, so what’s leftover for the rest of the options? Not much. Have fun guessing who.
-- I think, without Adams, GB has to do a whole RB-based game plan. So…
Nine million targets to Aaron Jones (6-19-0, 5-20-0/5).
But I think there’s a sneaky window for A.J. Dillon (3-6-0, 1-2-0/2) to get a ton of extra touches in this RB-approach.
HOWEVER
…I’d be more excited if I hadn’t rewatched this game and saw Kylin Hill (3-2-0, 0-0-0/1) taking touches IN THE FIRST SERIES. I think I first saw Dillon on the field in the 2nd-half, where he fumbled twice and lost one. No Bueno.
I think Dillon is still a sneaky upside in a big-time game here (not gonna mess around with Kylin/a rookie here), but after watching this game…I’m backing down a lot of the enthusiasm. I’d go so far as to say, from as way back as the preseason – I think Matt LaFleur prefers Hill to Dillon…in that way that coaches get attached to untalented grinders and dismiss the super-talented things they have otherwise because those guys make it look too easy. Dillon fumbling twice last week means the staff is also worried Dillon will give the game away…and coaches HATE fumbles more than losing games.
-- Terry McLaurin (7-122-1/12) caught another prayer TD this week. Heinicke almost got sacked, was stumbling and just threw up for grabs while falling down and Eric Stokes (3 tackles, 1 PD) was all over TML but the underthrown floated allowed McL to adjust and Stokes miss timed knocking it and TD.
I mean, smoke ‘em while you got ‘em. Roll with Terry every week. McLaurin is getting one of those every other week guys – so, just play him every week and hope for the miracle, knowing it’s an every other week type thing…opponent/coverage doesn’t matter.
Speaking of coverage, Eric Stokes is the best rookie cover corner in the NFL, period. Not Patrick Surtain. Not Caleb Farley (please). Not Asante Samuel. Jaycee Horn could be, but Eric Stokes IS.
Four reasons why I bring that up…
1) You know how McLaurin is a really good WR? Stokes ate him for lunch. Stokes is already a shutdown corner.
2) Because it’s the NFL, and coaches are so stupid, Stokes wasn’t travelling with McL. So, in key spots as Wahsington was constantly moving the ball and trying to get back into it…sometimes Stokes was on McLaurin, sometimes on Dax F-ing Milne.
Guess what happened when Stokes wasn’t on McLaurin? I do know this – when Stokes was on McLaurin, Heinicke wasn’t going there…except the falling down miracle Powerball ticket he landed with Stokes glued all over McLaurin.
3) When Jaire Alexander comes back, whenever that is – he and Stokes will form the best CB duo in the NFL. If Green Bay gets back Bakhtiari and Alexander (and those are big Ifs) then they might win the Super Bowl. And when you see the GB-DST on our Dynasty Stash reports – the future CB-duo is why.
The Packers-DST has allowed 15.8 PPG the last four weeks WITHOUT Alexander playing but WITH Stokes playing. Green Bay got smoked one time this year…Week 1 allowing 38 to Jameis -- Kenny King starting, not Stokes. That started to change Week 2, then was fully locked Week 3.
4) There was one, and only one scout who was proclaiming Stokes as the best CB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft…and as a top 5-10 pick talent. I wonder who that could’ve been… :)
I love being right, the only one, right in the face of the football establishment again and again. How is it even possible for me to be so good at this…why, I never played Pro Football! What do I know!!?!?
Turns out…quite a bit.
I’d like to take credit but it’s really a gift from God. https://youtu.be/tna3B5zqHdk It’s the only thing that makes sense that I could become the greatest football scout on the planet never even thinking about it or working in the game at all until about 10 years ago I started looking at some stuff in basement on the weekends while working my regular job. You never know what hidden talents you might have. Keep grinding. Keep hope alive if you hate your regular life job.
Sorry for the F-bombs, but if this inspires one person it’s worth it…and I would share it with my 13+ year old kid despite the language. We all need to hear it…not listen to it…hear it: https://youtu.be/2fx2aKP7UGQ
Thank you to Eric Stokes for somehow going off on this bunny trail…
-- Antonio Gibson (14-51-0, 2-5-0/2) is becoming Chase Edmonds for FF…10-14 carries for 50 +/- yards and 2 catches a week. FF-useless.
Gibson looks OK, but not 100%. Probably the shin. I thought he looked more spry in prior weeks but looked a little slower here…or I was just seeing things.
PPR points in games this season, starting with Week 1 (rounded): 14, 9, 17, 16, 21, 6, 8. Useful. Fading.
He’s not a buy low or sell-off low. He is what he is…a useful RB you hope gets it together/heals up.
-- Landon Collins (7 tackles, 1 TFL) was moved to linebacker this game, a permanent move. Kameron Curl (6 tackles) does better for IDP when Collins is not back there, FYI.
One more for the road: https://youtu.be/SZEo1KFjTn4
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = A Jones
13 = AJD
05 = Kylin Hill
66 = McLaurin
50 = Humphries
39 = DeAndre Carter
29 = Milne
10 = Dyami
46 = McKissic
30 = Gibson
01 = J Patterson
