2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Falcons 30, Dolphins 28
Two bad teams playing a game that ended up being a good/fun game to watch…the Falcons kept taking two-score leads, and Miami kept crawling back in, and then the Dolphins took the lead late…but too much time left for the Falcons to get down in FG range and kick an easy game winner as time expired.
The Computer/I had picked Atlanta to win but Miami to cover +2.5…so, everyone in my house went home happy with this one.
Miami has lost three games by late field goal now…losers of six in a row, (1-6) on the year. My win total ‘under’ bet on Miami is nearly locked in…unless they win out. So, everyone in my house went home a winner after this one! Did I already say that? Well, it’s doubly true – loved this game outcome as a bettor.
Miami is headed towards a 2-4 win season on their current trajectory…but that could all change with a looming Deshaun Watson deal next week. We’ll see if the Miami fortunes are about to change soon.
Atlanta has crawled to (3-3)…you know, good quality wins over NYG, NYJ, and MIA (teams a combined 3-17). They have an OK matchup this week with Carolina…and then the schedule will really start to get them from there. We see ATL finishing with 4-5 wins. The schedule is going to be unkind to this secretly really bad team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I definitely have to lead-off with this: This was the best NFL game I’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa (32-40 for 291 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs, 4-29-0) work/play. He was a machine working those quick baby throws (from 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage).
In the past, Tua has run the baby throw offense and been erratic or too slow on decisions too often…but in this game he was like a robot snapping off perfect 1–5-yard bullet timing passes and short slants and short comebacks all over. It was really humming. It’s darn near unstoppable when it works the way it did versus Atlanta.
The problem is whenever Tua has to throw under pressure, or that quick throw isn’t there, or Tua needs to throw it deeper…he just closes his eyes and floats one out and prays…thus, the 32 completed passes for 291 yards, just 7.3 yards per completion on a near 300+ yard day.
Whatever you want to call it…it was working here. The Falcons couldn’t figure it out or put needed pressure on Tua, so it was like he was playing easy 7-on-7 ball most of this game.
It’s really been two weeks in a row of it for Tua. If you can keep Tua in this rhythm…in this system…and well-protected, he’ll slice you with a thousand paper cuts. 32 and 33 pass completions in a game his last two starts. 310.0 yards passing per game and 6 TDs/3 INTs in those two games. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up against Buffalo, in the colder temps and with possible drizzle.
My guess is…no, he cannot. But after that, maybe…maybe as the starter for Carolina or Washington as well.
-- As long as Tua is doing his thing, then Jaylen Waddle (7-83-0/8) and Mike Gesicki (7-85-1/8) will continue to flourish. Waddle is playing pitch & catch with Tua, and could lead the league in catches if they stay together…while Gesicki is making some really complicated, under duress catches. Gesicki has become one of the best receiving TEs in the game.
It’s not impossible to think Gesicki will be the #2-3 scoring TE in PPR this season…as long as Tua remains there.
-- Matt Ryan (25-40 for 336 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is working much better since Week 2…
Weeks 1-2 = (0-2) record, 2 TDs/3 INTs
Weeks 3-7 = (3-1) record, 10 TDs/1 INTs…it helps that he has faced mostly all bottom tier pass defenses
A matchup with a top 5 pass defense in Carolina Week 8, but then back to bottom 10 pass defenses…NO and DAL after that.
-- The rise of Matt Ryan is being aided by the rise of his best two players…
1) Cordarrelle Patterson (14-60-1, 2-1-0/5) has taken over as the starting and main runner of the ball RB, and he looks terrific. Weird receiving game here…passes tipped at the line or covered tight by Xavien Howard a few times. I don’t think there is any cause for receiving alarm.
2) Kyle Pitts (7-163-0/8) took a HUGE leap forward in this game. Pitts is becoming Ryan’s go-to option…he flung several prayers to Pitts racing deep, and then Pitts would keep making surreal catches while tightly covered.
Arthur Smith has finally stopped with the TE/blocking nonsense with Pitts and just has him as basically a WR now…which is what we wanted right away, but it’s here now in Week 7.
Pitts has officially arrived as a top 1-2 TE for Fantasy.
Where are all the FF analysts who gleefully warned that rookie TEs don’t produce TE1 seasons…because they have a plot chart and cool infographic to show you the past 20 years of rookie TE performance in the NFL/FF? It doesn’t matter what the past is…the NFL changes/evolves every 2-3 years, and Kyle Pitts has no historical comp.
He is the magical unicorn rookie.
-- Russell Gage (4-67-1/6) returned from injury and had a nice game. All the attention on Ridley-Pitts-CPatt will make Gage an attractive WR3/Flex option, especially when garbage time happens…and it should happen a lot for ATL.
-- I thought Myles Gaskin (15-67-0, 4-10-1/4) was being quasi-benched for Salvon Ahmed (7-26-0, 2-26-0/2) after watching the Week 6 game where Ahmed was in late for the comeback effort. But it was Malcolm Brown who actually started this game and ran the whole 1st-series, but then got hurt and Gaskin filtered in and we’re back to Gaskin as lead…I guess.
-- Falcons rookie SAF Richie Grant (6 tackles) played a season high 79% of the snaps in this game. He’s been playing more the last two games. He was our #1 rated safety for this 2021 NFL Draft.
I didn’t see anything on tape here that got me excited that IDP usage was imminent, however. He still looks a bit lost but should wash out of that in a few weeks and we can reevaluate. He’s more a cover safety than a tackler anyway.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Waddle
39 = Hollins
30 = Pr Williams
19 = Ford
46 = Gaskin
22 = Ahmed
05 = Brown
46 = CPatt
38 = MK Davis
46 = Ridley
40 = Gage
14 = Sharpe
12 = Zaccheaus
