2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Vikings 30, Seahawks 17
The Seahawks jumped out to an early 17-7 lead and looked like they might run away with it, but it was all Minnesota from there. They scored 23 unanswered points and completely shut out Seattle in the 2nd half.
These are two really similar teams. Both have good QB's, a great starting WR duo, good RB, and both have suspect defenses. The Vikings are a little weaker through the air on defense, and the Seahawks are a little weaker on the ground. Neither is particularly good and it's going to hold them back. The difference maker in this game was Minnesota finally getting pressure on Wilson in the 2nd half which halted a few drives. Seattle never really got close to Cousins. I suspect both of these teams finish with somewhere around 10 wins depending on schedule and luck, not bad, probably in the playoffs but also not real Superbowl contenders.
Fantasy Notes
--Kirk Cousins (30-38 for 323 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) is on fire. He's quietly averaging over 300 yards passing and 2.6 TD's per game through the first three weeks. There are a couple of rough games through his schedule, but by and large he's going to be playing a lot of weak defenses. I'm not sure why he gets overlooked every year, but it's looking like another top 10 finish for Cousins this year. He's a great #2 QB to have right now behind Mahomes/Murray/Herbert.
--With Dalvin Cook sitting this one out, the workload went to his backup Alexander Mattison (26-112-0, 6-59-0/8) and I have to say, it was hard to tell the difference. I guess that's a little bit of a compliment for Mattison. He did look as good as I've ever seen him here. But mostly it's just that Cook has never really been all that impressive to me. Why are you paying him so much money when Mattison can do the same job? Mattison is obviously a great guy to play until Cook comes back.
--In the passing game it looks like Cousins isn't going to lean on just one or two guys. He's spreading the ball around to whoever is open. Here it mostly went to Justin Jefferson (9-118-1/11). Jefferson might be a tick or two down from his rookie season production by the time this year is over. He just doesn't look like a dominant receiver, more like another solid player in a good offense. That stat line looks nice and I'm sure Jefferson owners think everything is fine once again, but I wasn't super impressed by this performance. Jefferson wasn't dominating Seattle and it was quite surprising to see him with that big a stat difference over Adam Thielen (6-50-1/9) who I thought Cousins was looking for more frequently.
Speaking of Thielen, we might be looking at another low yardage total for him this year, but it doesn't matter because he keeps catching TD's. He's got 18 total in his last 18 games.
--Tyler Conklin (7-70-1/8) was more integrated than I've seen him before. He's not a threat to be an elite TE or anything, but he's serviceable. He's going to need the TD's to really have a useful week. Otherwise we're going to see a lot of 4-35-0 lines from him.
--I was excited to see how KJ Osborn (2-26-0/2) would follow up his breakout last week. Spoiler alert: he didn't. Osborn didn't get his first target until the very end of the 3rd quarter and only managed 2 for the game. He looks fantastic like RC said, but he's still not a major part of this offense. The RB still comes first, then Jefferson and Thielen, and finally Conklin and Osborn depending on gameflow and matchup. You can't count on him for fantasy right now but he'll likely have a few splash spots every 3rd or 4th game.
--Nothing has changed as far as Seattle's offense goes. They still want to run the ball with Chris Carson (12-80-1, 2-2-0/2) first and foremost. I don't know why, but I know that's the plan. Carroll loves Carson and thinks he's more important than Russell apparently, even when they are losing by 10 points in the 4th quarter. Carson left this game for a short period at one point and came back in the game a bit later, but then left again shortly after. There is some talk of a possible hamstring injury, but we don't have any solid information on this yet but it's something to monitor.
If you have Carson, or if you are desperate for RB production, you might grab Alex Collins (2-8-0) for a week or two. He was the only RB that took carries other than Carson and probably would get the lion's share of the early down workload if Carson had to miss time. I can't guarantee it would be worth much though because Travis Homer was running the 2-minute offense and even Penny Hart got a few late snaps.
--Russell Wilson (23-32 for 298, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-7-0) is going to have another frustrating year for fantasy owners. He just doesn't get the same volume throwing as most other top QB's and his incredible efficiency can't always make up for that. He's still a QB1 but probably closer to 12 than he is to 1.
--I warned you about Tyler Lockett (4-31-0/4) last week. Just because his first two games were huge does not automatically mean everything is fine and he's a WR1 lock every week now. This offense just doesn't pass often enough and these receivers tend to go hot and cold. Lockett had a couple of big games, then Metcalf will, and they rotate some more. It's going to be a roller coaster ride with this guy all year. Hope you're good/lucky at starting him on his monster weeks.
--Let's talk DK Metcalf (6-107-1/9). He looks fantastic. We've always known he had the body of a Greek god and phenomenal athleticism, but his struggles with route running are well documented. If all you can do is run deep then you're easy to defend. I'm here to report that Metcalf is running actual routes now, short and medium, he's making sharp cuts...he's no longer a one trick pony.
I still want to exercise caution for two reasons however. 1) This is still a low volume passing game. 2) This game was played against a weak Vikings secondary. I think it's entirely possible though that we see Metcalf finally become one of the most dominant receivers in the league and the true #1 for Seattle. I want to see a couple more games first, but that's on the table now.
Gerald Everett (5-54-0/5) got his nice box score this week after a couple of letdown games early on. It just looked like random work though, no actual intention to get him the ball. I would still avoid this situation.
Snap Counts of Interest
54 = Tyler Conklin
30 = Ben Ellefson
72 = Adam Thielen
62 = Justin Jefferson
44 = KJ Osborn
42 = Gerald Everett
20 = Will Dissly
16 = Travis Homer
14 = Alex Collins
8 = Penny Hart
