2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Cardinals 31, Jaguars 19
Kyler Murray said, after the game, something to the effect of – this was the type of game we would have lost in the past.
That’s a very important statement about this game. Why? The reason why he made the statement is – they were getting beat. Outplayed, or toe-to-toe and with early breaks going the Jags’ way (like the 109-yard missed FG returned for a TD). Jacksonville went step for step with Arizona, but the Cardinals DEFENSE bailed them out…a pick-six to take the lead at the end of the 3rd-quarter, then halting most all the 3rd-downs (JAX 2-of-11 for the game on 3rd-down), and Arizona getting another turnover to close the game out.
The takeaways from this game are interesting…
1) Arizona did what good teams do – faced with adversity they stepped up and seized the momentum/game back away from the opponent.
2) Jacksonville is not a terrible team…two weeks in a row playing good teams and the Jags hanging right with them. Still too many mistakes, but Jacksonville is playing better and better every week.
Jacksonville +7.5 at Cincinnati is a bet I’m taking and will be talking about all week.
Arizona showed they are a legit good team here, but they coulda/shoulda lost their last two games and been (1-2) and panicking. They are (3-0) and not panicking. They are a good team that’s closer to a great team than a mediocre one. This win, and last week’s comeback win…great foundational steps at building a winning group.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Because I believe the Jaguars have one of the best offensive lines in football, I’m suddenly VERY interested in James Robinson (15-88-1, 6-46-0/6).
The Jags O-Line is 5th best in rushing yards per carry (5.1) so far this season and 5th best (lowest) in sacks allowed. My eyeballs see it…the data supports it.
Note, if you pursue JRob in a trade, he obviously just had a great week…but note he sucked (stat wise) Weeks 1-2. Yes, it’s a bad week to chase him after the nice Week 3…but he’s gettable/chase-able, if we’re right about this O-Line…and we are.
-- Because the O-Line is very good, Trevor Lawrence (22-34 for 219 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) has lots of time and is looking more and more plausible every week…NFL plausible. Not sure he’s FF plausible yet, but going to be the best of the bottom 5-10 ranked QBs out there, or on redraft waivers right now, etc.
He’s been cursed with facing DEN and ARI the past two weeks – two of the best defenses in the league. CIN this week isn’t easy but easier than DEN-ARI.
-- Who woulda thunk Christian Kirk (7-104-0/8) as the top WR for FF off the Cardinals, but so far it’s true. Two-and-a-half solid weeks of results for Kirk. He’s the #15 Fantasy WR in PPR PPG right now.
It’s working…so ride it. Just be careful going too crazy for him – he’s secondary to Hopkins for targets and note he’s only playing 57-62-57% of offensive snaps in his three games so far. He’s not on the field 90%+ of the time getting things…he’s more specialized.
He’s a good FLEX right now, or ‘sell high’ to chase something bigger you want.
-- What happened to Rondale Moore (2-1-0/2)? Didn’t get used as much this week. Still only plays about a 1/3rd of the snaps. Hard to see him as more than a WR3/FLEX right now. Super talented, and his time is coming…but it takes some time for rookies to hit consistency. Three weeks played, two nice weeks and one dud. It happens.
Had a goal line wildcat run…stopped short of a rushing TD, of course…
-- A.J. Green (5-112-0/6) had a nice week, but it doesn’t look great on tape. AJG is always covered and is painful to watch…but he is a reliable guy when open. He’s made some decent plays, but mostly he’s covered and not a real option for Kyler.
-- Before each of James Conner’s (11-43-2, 1-10-0/1) rushing TDs here, there were other attempts to run it in with other players. Conner is going to be the goal line guy in most instances, but that’s about his best appeal…and he’s usually not the first choice by the team for them always.
Those two TDs going to Conner hurt Chase Edmonds (11-26-0, 7-49-0/8), but don’t blame Conner…Edmonds had his shots to score ahead of Conner but didn’t cross the goal line. Edmonds is killing it as a pass catcher (2nd most catches among RBs in 2021) but he’s not an optimal goal line guy. Edmonds makes his hay in PPR…not non-PPR.
-- Marvin Jones (6-62-0/8) is Trevor’s BFF target over all the WRs…not Chark, not Shenault.
YTD targets…
28 = Jones
22 = Chark
21 = Shenault
15 = J Robinson
YTD catches…
17 = M Jones
13 = Shenault
12 = J Robinson
07 = Chark
When Jacksonville gets easier defenses to face, Jones might be a strong WR1.5…as he usually is the past few seasons.
-- The Jaguars traded shutdown cornerback C.J. Henderson away for really nothing in return – which is the M.O. of the Urban Meyer regime…selling assets for pennies on the dollar because ‘Urban mad, Urban not like players who don’t think he’s a god’.
This move doesn’t make the decent Jags defense any better. Rookie DB Tyson Campbell (8 tackles, 1 PD) ascends to CJH’s starting spot. He’s promising for IDP…struggling to cover, but a good tackler = good IDP numbers for a CB.
Dan Arnold in return for Henderson…really? And a 3rd-round pick…that they’ll likely butcher. You can trade Henderson if you want, but great job driving down his trade value all summer and then selling him for half of what he is worth.
Arnold comes into a situation that’s better than where he came from, for him…for FF…but not likely going to be an FF factor, but we’ll see. James O’Shaughnessy was getting a lot of targets before he went down.
-- Jags SAF Andrew Wingard (7 tackles, 1 PD) has fully taken over as a starting safety playing 100% of the snaps (Wk3). He’s averaging 7.0 tackles per game this season – promising. He’s a wannabe Harrison Smith. He’s not bad. Has the mindset of a linebacker at safety.
-- Another week, another time I watch Arizona’s defense and walk away thinking ‘damn, they’re good’. No team has the mix of talent, depth, attitude and flying to the ball and hitting hard on nearly every play like the Cardinals.
Now, it’s a promising, aggressive defense…but it’s not the 2019 Bears or 2017-18 Broncos or the 84 Bears. It’s very good, very promising…could wind up the best in football. But they’re only ‘really good’ right now. They are susceptible to a bad matchup. Week 4 at LAR is not a favorable FF scoring matchup for them. They might shine, but on paper…you’d like to avoid this.
Weeks 5-6 are better with SF-CLE, but it’s also facing two of the best O-Lines in the game…not super-juicy for FF numbers. Week 7 with HOU is sweet. Week 8 vs. GB probably not sweet. It’s a choppy schedule ahead for this very good defense – not a must hold if you see better to stream. They might blow through Weeks 5-6-7 by sheer force of their talent, but I wouldn’t tempt fate Week 4 at LAR. If they crush LAR…then you know something great is unfolding.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Hollister
25 = Manhertz
17 = L Farrell
40 = JRob
23 = Hyde
61 = Hopkins
53 = AJG
38 = Kirk
23 = Moore
44 = Edmonds
25 = Connor
