R.C. Fischer

Weekly Game Analysis

03 January 2025

We're talking Geno Smith, Zach Charbonnet, Caleb Williams and more...

Game Overview:

What an abomination of a game. I don't think I need to give any kind of detailed recap here. The box score says it all. Both teams have pretty good defenses and atrocious offenses. Voila. Interestingly, the Seahawks are the first team in NFL history to finish with a winning record two seasons in a row and not make the playoffs at least once.

Player Scouting Notes from the game: 

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).

 – What more is there to say about Geno Smith (17-23 for 160 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)? He had a moment two years ago where he was very efficient under Dave Canales, and he's been regressing ever since. Some of it is offensive line woes. Some of it is ‘scheme’. But a large portion of the blame falls at Geno's feet too. He's going to be 35 years old next year and his contract is escalating again. I doubt he's on the team next year. There's just no way paying him $40 million is their best option when they could find comparable play from somewhere else (Zach Wilson? Daniel Jones? Mitch Trubisky? Drew Lock?) for $5 million. It's not a long term solution, but any of those guys could be a possible bridge to a future starter you draft this year or next.

 – Zach Charbonnet (15-57-0, 3-19-0/3) didn't have the greatest stat line, but he's running well behind a corrupt offensive line with little help from the passing game to keep the defense honest. He's not as explosive as Kenneth Walker, but it's clear he's the superior overall player. It is not out of the realm of possibility the Seahawks trade Walker this off-season which would catapult Charbonnet to the starting spot for 2025. He could be very productive next year and will be available if you don't already have him stashed.

 – Of the three Seattle receivers the only one guaranteed to still be on the team next year is Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3-32-0/6). He's the #1 for them now if that hasn't been clear for a while.

DK Metcalf (3-42-0/3) is an issue because he's due over $30 million but his value is the lowest it's been in years. I don't know if they can find a willing trade partner but maybe some dumb team like New England is willing to overpay? They are probably just stuck with him for the time being.

And it's probably the end of the road for old Tyler Lockett (3-20-0/4). He's had a good run but will be 33 next year and his contract is looking like an obvious cut. There will definitely be at least one new receiver in Seattle next year if not two.

 – It's been a rough year for Caleb Williams (16-28 for 122 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) to say the least. That said, I do not think he's untalented at all. The man has all the tools necessary and shows some incredible flashes. The issue is his style and supporting cast. He's got to learn to play within himself and not try to do too much. This isn't college where you can go out an play hero ball all the time.

And this whole situation begs the question: is this what it would have looked like if Patrick Mahomes had been drafted #2 overall to Chicago back in 2017 instead of Trubisky? I think so, I truly do. He was similarly wild and unpolished with all the natural ability. But Mahomes landed a brilliant (and patient) head coach that was willing and able to sit him for a year while they taught him the offense, and the rest of the team was already playoff caliber.

I'm not ready to bury Caleb by any means, but Chicago is not the best place for QBs to develop obviously. And it's not just a head coach issue. They've never had the front office and personnel team to support a talented young QB. Could that change? I guess. I'm not really a Poles fan, but he hasn't done badly, and if they bring in a smart coach like Ben Johnson that can get through to Caleb and get him to focus....it's certainly possible for him to get this thing turned around. But Caleb is going to have to buy in and really work hard to hone his craft. Does he have the temperament for that? I don't know.

 – One thing I discussed with RC a lot last off-season was my belief that Jim Harbaugh and Mike Macdonald would whip both of their respective defenses into shape pretty quickly. The Chargers are the #1 defense in points per game this year, but I would argue they really weren't the best defense by any stretch. Good but not great. But the improvement is already obvious.

The Seahawks RC has been more skeptical of, but they are the #10 defense in points per game already, and I still am quite confident they are still improving and will be a potential top 5 defense next year. It's still possible to run on them, but their pass defense has been worlds better. They didn't allow a single 300 yard passer all year for example. Linebacker is their biggest area to keep working on, but Macdonald has done a great job already teaching these guys his scheme. Another year and they should be very difficult to play against. They will be at the top of my list of sneaky defenses for redraft next year.

R.C. Fischer

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