NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: WR Tyler Johnson, Minnesota

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Our Quick Hit (QH) scouting reports are a modified/shorter version of our full-scale reports. On these Quick Hits, I look at a lesser amount of tape and write a shorter amount of flowy words – these are usually designed more for sleeper prospects that I want to get more acquainted with and if something really jumps out, I’ll go deeper. It’s just me trying to get in and get out and deliver the pertinent notes to you for your consideration and for review later if they start to make waves in a year or two.

I’ll do a chunk of these pre-Draft and then more after the Draft, going through the players that caught my attention in the draft (because of how high they were taken) or that I stumble across in training camp or the preseason that catch my eye.

Most of my notes on these Quick Hits will be short and sweet bullet points versions of our full-scale reports. Enjoy…

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Initially, I confused this Tyler Johnson’s Pro Day with his outside linebacker teammate, also named Tyler Johnson…and I was so disappointed in the numbers I saw (until I found out it was the wrong Tyler Johnson). The speed times made no sense from what I was expecting, but pretty solid agility…it all made enough sense overall that I didn’t dismiss the numbers as impossible, but I started to write off WR Tyler Johnson as a serious prospect, even though I was a big fan of his work on tape/statistically.

The WR prospect Tyler Johnson did not run at his Pro Day, still recovering from a mild injury that kept him from running at the Combine as well. So there are no true workout numbers to go by on WR Tyler Johnson.

When I got the fake-bad news on Tyler, I pushed his deeper scouting off because ‘who cares about a 4.8+ running WR prospect?’. Well, now I know that data was not right…so, I’m back to wondering (from my pre-East-West All-Star game and pre-Combine studies) if Johnson isn’t one of the best 3-5 WR prospects in this draft…ahead of the lazy analyst cluster of Lamb-Jeudy-Higgins. Time to find out.

BACKGROUND…

 -- All Big Ten WR 2018 and 2019.

 -- Team MVP 2019. Outback Bowl MVP 2019.

 -- #5 all-time Big Ten in career rec. TDs (33).

#7 in career rec. yards (3,305).

#9 in career receptions (213).

 -- Top 10 in the NCAAs in 2019 in rec. yards and TDs (7th best in each).

GAME TAPE AND RANDOM NOTES…

 -- All I can say is…he’s 2020’s best ‘next Michael Thomas’ candidate. The metrics may not be off-the-charts like some other guys in this draft, but in terms of quality/professional work – there may be none better in this draft.

I’d also accept ‘next Davante Adams’ as a WR who comes to mind for comping Tyler Johnson.

 -- Such a great worker…quick off the snap, always gets open (without 4.3/4.4 speed), and is incredibly reliable. What people think CeeDee Lamb is…Tyler Johnson is that…he is that without the little bit of diva I see in Lamb.

 -- Very reliable hands. He makes all the tough catches – inside and out.

 -- Not afraid to work inside. His game is mostly 5-15 yards from the line of scrimmage and he just slices opposing defenses by finding a way to get open and almost always coming down with the catch. He’s like Michael Thomas in that way – you watch Thomas and wonder why the other team doesn’t adjust to stop him, but they are trying…they just can’t.

Michael Thomas isn’t as sexy a worker as Tyreek or Hopkins or Julio, but he’s the most productive worker in the end – that’s the stylings of Tyler Johnson.

 -- Very quick feet off the snap to spring himself open. Not a blazer his first few yards, but kicks into speed 10+ yards in the open field.

 -- He’s the type of worker-WR that will not lead his team in jersey sales but might help lead them to a world title. He’s the kinda guy NFL coaches love.

Tyler Johnson, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Tyler is a slightly smaller version of Michael Thomas or Davante Adams…

6’1.3”/206, 9.00” hands, 30 7/8” arms = Tyler Johnson (2020 NFL Combine)

6’0.7”/212, 9.00” hands, 32 5/8” arms = Davante Adams (2014 NFL Combine)

6’2.6”/212, 10.5” hands, 32 1/8” arms = Michael Thomas (2016 NFL Combine)

Johnson had a legit minor medical to skip the Combine drills, so we can’t make any comparisons there.

 -- Seven 100+ yard games in 2019 season. 16 games with 100+ yards in his career, on a team not known for its passing game.

Jerry Jeudy had nine 100+ yard games in his career. CeeDee Lamb had 14 games with 100+ yards. Both these guys played in better passing games and worked about as many games in their career.

 -- Scored at least one TD in seven straight games to end his college career.

 -- Two bowl appearances (2018-2019) in his career, his averages in those games: 8.0 rec., 130.5 yards, and 2.0 TDs per game.

 -- Seven or more catches in a game 10 times in his career. Jeudy 6 times, Lamb 7 times…again, those two had the better ‘system’ around them.

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Tyler Johnson Most Compares Within Our System:

No Michael Thomas comp from the computer, but Davante Adams very much so. But when I saw Tyler Boyd, I was like – EXACLY. That’s who Tyler reminds me of…a little Boyd-Kupp-Adams-Thomas all mixed together. I’m not as for-sure he’s an NFL rock star as that group, but close to believing he is.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see top 100 rankings on Tyler Johnson everywhere I look on draft websites, but rarely in the top 100 of mock drafts. He’s a bit lost in the shuffle of so many ‘names’ at WR in this draft because he didn’t run at the Combine and got screwed by not getting a Senior Bowl invite, but I think NFL people know and are just sitting back waiting to grab him at a tremendous value 3rd/4th round. My contacts feel like he’s going to sneak into the top 100.

If I were an NFL GM, Johnson is on my short list of WR steals in the 3rd-round. Actually, it’s a large list. The WR money in this draft is potentially late round two into round four. But I’d take Devin Duvernay or Michael Pittman over him in a heartbeat.

NFL Outlook:   

He’s going to be an NFL starting WR. Where he lands will dictate how statistically pleasing he becomes for fans. Davante Adams drafted by Jacksonville would have taken (ruined) his career in a whole other direction. There are fewer ‘openings’ for a guy like Tyler to come in and shine…landing spot is everything here. Michael Thomas would be a ‘meh’ WR with the Jags or Bills or Bengals, etc. 

4/13/2020