NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: TE Brycen Hopkins, Purdue

*Our TE grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

**Our TE formulas had some slight changes in the offseason—an adjustment to better identify and value TE prospects that are smaller physically and are primed for the era ahead...the era of Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker-type TEs. Our historical grades will have changed some on various prospects as well, to show their grades by comparison. 

I had some hope that when I studied Brycen Hopkins, he would turn out to be a legit contender for ‘best tight end prospect in this draft class’, but after finishing those studies and looking at the data – I just can’t get that excited.

I would say Hopkins is one of the better, maybe top five, TE prospects in this draft. A potential NFL starter…but, honestly, I just wasn’t blown away with anything I saw here. Before focusing on Hopkins, I had just finished my studies of Cole Kmet…and Hopkins looks like a two inch shorter, a little quicker version of Kmet. Both capable and possessing basic NFL size-speed but no real ‘wow’…a lot of average attributes.

Hopkins worked as a traditional TE for Purdue. He was an OK/solid receiver. He has a nice hop off the snap. He can get himself open against college linebackers. Not sure he’ll dominate NFL linebackers with 4.66 speed and 1.61 10-yard burst, but he’s OK…quicker than most in this class. He’s more on the ‘stiff’ side making his cuts, translating his movement to the NFL…he had average to below average agility times at the Combine. When he’s open and targeted he has decent hands…not the best I’ve seen, not the worst.  He’s not a powerhouse after the catch, but he’s big enough and quick enough to handle himself in the NFL.

I’m not saying he’s a bad TE prospect…I could’ve said many of the same things about Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper or Jack Doyle or others. If Hopkins develops in 2-3 years and works in a favorable offense…he can be a solid starter and become a fairly rich free agent in 4-5 years. However, if he goes to a team with an established starter at TE, he could be forgotten quickly. He’s not the kind of ‘force’ that moves good NFL starters out of the way to make room for him.

As a blocker, not that impressive…but that’s not uncommon for young tight ends. He blocks with a lot of arms and pushing, and bigger/better edge players blow him backwards easily; he has a very difficult time contending with them. Against equal/lesser talent, he’s big enough to push a blocker away for the moment. Against real deal edge pressure, he’s at a loss. He could develop there too – but note Hopkins, overall, as a blocker or receiver, needs time. He’s not an instant starter/impact TE prospect.

What I do like – he’s above average in most measurables and metrics in this (weak) draft class, and he has very good character. A really nice, personable, confident, but not arrogant young player. He’s a good guy to have on a team. His father was an NFL starting offensive lineman for many years. He’s well trained, and comfortable interacting with the media or teammates.

Brycen Hopkins, Through the Lens of Our TE Scouting Algorithm:

Hopkins was really coming on as his career went on, as his final season unfolded. In the last 7 games of his career he averaged: 6.7 rec., 89.3 yards, 0.57 TDs per game…and those are pretty salty numbers for a college tight end in general, much less one playing in a kind of wobbly passing game. 

Five career 100+ yard games…that, again, is pretty nice from a college tight end, one not working with elite QB prospects/offenses. 

2020 NFL Combine Data…

6’3.7”/245, 10 1/8” hands, 32 1/8” arms

4.66 40-time (2nd-fastest among TE prospects in 2020), 2.70 20-yard, 1.61 10-yard

4.28 shuttle, 7.25 three-cone (8th best out of 13 among the TE prospects)

21 bench reps (4th-best), 33.5” vertical (9th-best), 9’8” broad jump 

The Historical TE Prospects to Whom Brycen Hopkins Most Compares Within Our System:

Jacob Hollister is a great comp in my mind…and then that’s a scary comp for Hopkins – it means he’s just an average/useful TE prospect, not anything special.  

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

**The ‘TE-Reed’ score is in honor of Jordan Reed’s 2015 season…looking at TEs in a different manner—the smaller, speedy receiving threats.

“Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

I’ve seen Hopkins ranked as high as #2 in this 2020 TE class, and as low as #7-8. He didn’t light the world on fire at the Combine, but there is a low supply of tight ends in the NFL…so, Hopkins probably goes middle 4th-round.

If I were an NFL GM, I wish Hopkins well…but there are so many other prospects at all the positions that will have better upside, more instant impact to use a top 125 draft pick on. I can find Hopkins-like prospects in the late rounds or among the UDFAs. 

NFL Outlook:   

It’s the Jacob Hollister path, probably…with a bit more upside. He’s there to use if an NFL team needs him, but he’s not a primary, exciting upfront plan…just a stop gap, useful asset. There is some hope of a solid career with his experience/polish and decent NFL size, but we’re not talking future Pro Bowler here unless he lands in the perfect place and becomes BFF’s with an elite QB. 

3/20/2020