NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: WR Warren Jackson, Colorado State (Update)

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

**Post-Pro Day Update Scouting**

Warren Jackson’s Pro Day was a disaster…and pretty much wipes any enthusiasm I previously held for him. 

It’s weird… I should’ve heeded his high school recruiting speed times that were in the 4.8s. He looked faster on tape (the scouting sentence of death). Jackson ran a 4.7+ at his Pro Day, which is better than the 4.8’s but still ‘doom’ (for the NFL, on paper). 

If I were Jackson, I’d start the conversion to tight end right now. His 4.7s 40-time will get him undrafted or 7th-round because of his height (true 6’6” even). His agility times were even worse than the 40-time number…4.5+ shuttle, 7.7+ three-cone. Again, he looks better on tape…but this data is too damning at this point. 

Jackson has good receiver skills, but he doesn’t have NFL athleticism at wide receiver. The results were so bad, so far off what I estimated (also, ‘hoped’ for) – we now just rip the band-aid off here and move on to all the other more promising sleeper WR prospects. 

I was hoping Jackson would have some Kenny Golladay in him. He does not, per the Pro Day. Here’s (below) a Pro Day comparison of Jackson, Golladay, and Preston Williams (another Colorado State WR who had a bad Pro Day data set but was much better in reality)…

6’6”/219, 81”+ wingspan, 4.74 40-time, 7.75+ three-cone = Warren Jackson (2021 Pro Day)

6’4”/211, 80” wingspan, 4.65+ 40-time, 7.15+ three-cone = Preston Williams (2019 Pro Day)

6’4”/218, 76” wingspan, 4.50 40-time, 7.00 three-cone = Kenny Golladay (2017 Combine)

Bon Voyage to Warren Jackson as a neat WR sleeper…hopefully he can convert successfully to TE (doubtful). 

Also, Bon Voyage to Kenny Golladay’s career as a higher-end NFL/Fantasy WR by signing with the Giants/awful Daniel Jones. KG was smart – take the money and run. 

Not going to update the computer comp board for Warren Jackson here, because I called in the priest and declared him mostly D.O.A. for the NFL (at WR) now. 

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ORIGINAL SCOUTING REPORT 3/8/2021:

One of the better ‘big guy’ WRs in the 2021 NFL Draft is Colorado State’s Warren Jackson – 6’5”+ and 210-220 pounds (waiting to see what his official number is at his Pro Day).

Jackson had been progressing nicely in his first three seasons (2017-19), becoming a 1st-team all-Conference WR in 2019 with 77 rec., 1,119 yards and 8 TDs, 7.7 rec., 111.9 yards, 0.8 TDs per game – one of the best per game WRs in college football in 2019.

So there were big expectations for Jackson in 2020 season, until COVID hit and he took that opportunity to opt-out and prep for his NFL career. Between the opt-out and playing in mid-major conference, his NFL Draft prospect buzz has fizzled so far in 2021. He’s barely mentioned in draft discussions. You’ll only see a few random ‘watch out for this guy’ takes from writers/analysts you’ve never heard of – which is the typical life for a mid-major conference WR prospect with a boring name.

Being a biased-against mid-major conference WR prospect is not a death sentence – Jackson’s former Colorado State teammate Preston Williams didn’t get drafted, but was so good, he became a Week 1 starter his rookie season.

Jackson was signed by the Athlete’s First agency, which is a pretty good representative of talent…so he’s got some juice internally in the NFL, but externally (the media and analysts) he’s a virtual ghost.

What I see in Jackson…

PRO:

 -- He reminds me a lot of Kenny Golladay. I didn’t think Golladay had ‘it’ for the NFL when I watched/studied him at Northern Illinois. I knew he had the body and athleticism, but I thought he played too finesse and had lacked the aggressiveness to ever be a dominating NFL WR. The moment I saw him his rookie training camp, I knew I was wrong. Golladay cranked up his game at the next level and became a star.

 -- Jackson is a really talented WR in ‘instinct’…good hands, good body positioning, good foot movement off the snap, smart routes, good high point worker/uses his size the way he should.

 -- Jackson is a very smart, humble, grinder WR when you get to know him. He seems shy at first, but he’s is pretty engaging and very into his craft.

 -- Worked as an outside receiver at CSU but did jump into the slot at times and made short-medium catches and took on hits. He also is a willing blocker. He does the dirty work when it’s called for.

CON:

 -- Jackson’s work is very low key. He shows as ‘finesse’ on his college tape. I use that as a bad word, because usually it is – but Kenny Golladay played with finesse as does Tee Higgins (to me). I can mistake their unassuming on-field ways for ‘too blasé’…when it really might be efficient movement that I’m reading too much negative into.

 -- When I see skinnier-framed WRs, like Jackson, I’m sure my mind starts thinking they might be a bit frail and finesse because they move/slither around. One man’s hit avoidance, is another man’s elusiveness is another man’s ‘avoids contact too much’. Jackson isn’t a bully WR like a Nico Collins, but he takes hits and plays physical enough.

And why should WRs seek contact if they can help it? Avoiding it when possible is not the worst thing. I like to see contact because it attracts my scouting eye/style of play preference…but getting open, making plays, catching in traffic, blocking is still successful/desired no matter what kind of frame. Scouts, myself included, tend to like thicker players…which is why there’s pushback on DeVonta Smith. We should be learning that this new era of passing game and penalties to protect WRs is leading to an uprising of all kinds of styles and thickness of WRs…just look at Justin Jefferson or Diontae Johnson.

 -- His speed is a question. It’s weird…

I saw some notes that he ran a 4.8s+ 40-time in high school…which led to some power conference scholarships being a bit shaky for him, not pursuing him as hard, and thus he went to CSU (who did push for him).

However, I watch the tape looking for that slow-ass speed…and I don’t see it. I see really nice feet off the snap and the ability to get open. He’s not a speed burner but he’s not a slug either.

His Pro Day 40-times could send a jolt to his prospect status…or sink him to UDFA-land.

Tee Higgins and Preston Williams (and Diontae Johnson) had terrible Combine/Pro Day times for speed and/or agility…yet they were dominant quickly in the NFL WITH their cutting ability and hands. Warren Jackson might fall into that same mold.

I am open to Jackson being a fringe NFL roster WR who never ‘makes it’, but I don’t rule out him as having a path to being a Kenny Golladay or Preston Williams-like shock to the system either – and because of that, he should have draft stock…a team should take a cheap look here.

His Pro Day work (if he does it) will send his draft grades way up, or way down. We’ll know after 3/22/21 for the Colorado State Pro Day. I’ll adjust this report accordingly, if needed.

Warren Jackson, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

 -- 6 or more catches in a game in nine of 10 games in 2019 season. 

 -- Third ever college game, against Alabama, two catches for 7 yards…and 2 TDs. 

 -- 85+ yards in a game his final 7 college games (116.8 yards per game in that span). 

 -- Facing top 40 defenses in 2019 (Air Force, Wyoming, Boise St): 7.3 rec., 89.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game.

Pro Day Estimates: 

6’5.6” tall, 10” hands, 33”+ arms

Has weighed in at 210-215 pounds but looking to see if he might have used the opt-out to get to a solid 217-220.

Speed? 4.60 +/- is my initial ‘line’ with 7.00-7.10 three-cone, but worse numbers are predicted by the mainstream…still, I could see him beating all the estimates for the positive.

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Warren Jackson Most Compares Within Our System:

I thought of Golladay immediately looking at tape, and that was before I saw our computer models thought the same. It’s exciting to have a Golladay comp, but Equanimeous St. Brown is similar to Golladay (and Jackson) and hasn’t made much of a dent in the pros. 

The scouting case really is…

Is Warren Jackson the next Kenny Golladay or the next Equanimeous St. Brown? Brown was really good for Notre Dame…Golladay was decent for Northern Illinois – their college careers did not foreshadow their NFL journey. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-ability for the next level.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

If you see Jackson listed as draftable anywhere, it’s usually 6th-7th-round at best. For the mainstream, he’s more often than not projected as a UDFA. His Pro Day might get him lifted out of UDFA purgatory…or cement that status.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d be doing serious investigations and going to workouts and timing Jackson for myself – if he checks out legit enough as an athlete…at his size…for the draft price – you’ve really got something worth drafting here.

NFL Outlook:   

A lot of hurdles ahead…

How does Jackson’s Pro Day shift his draft stock, which leads to Jackson getting drafted or going UDFA…and if a UDFA he’s likely going to be buried early on in his NFL career.

I suspect, wherever he gets drafted, that his height and footwork and general skills will get him noticed in training camp and teams are going to want to stick with him, groom him and use him as at least a red zone weapon. There’s a path for Jackson, but it’s not going to be easy or wide. My gut feeling says he has a chance to impact early and then become an NFL contributor+. 

3/26/2021