2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Kyle Trask, Florida

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

I did some light preview scouting of Kyle Trask in the summer of 2020 and was not that impressed…and, so, that was the mindset I entered this scouting session with – a little biased against him as a good/great pro prospect.

To begin the official scouting process, I conducted my background research/notes on Trask and then moved to looking at his output data from 2020, and -- I was shocked. A surprisingly strong 2020 season for Trask – with more than a few people claiming him as a Heisman frontrunner early on in the season. That, I did not expect to see/hear.

However, once I put on the tape, I was right back to my summer 2020 notion – I’m just not that impressed. I’m not saying he is bad, but I am saying that I watch a lot of QB tape, college and pro, every year for 10+ years…and I watch Trask and am just a ‘shoulder shrug’ on him every time. He looks like a very solid/nice college QB who would be a very average (or worse) NFL QB.

Trask is capable, worthy of some kind of prospect status – good size (6’4”+/240) and he has a decent arm…not a laser beam but can get the ball downfield well with good form. He seems to be able to read defenses…he doesn’t lock onto one receiver and throw it no matter what. There are positives here.

What turns me off is…

Trask is very Mason Rudolph-like (and there was a time I thought Rudolph would succeed in the NFL), and by that I mean – they are quarterbacks stuck in the wrong era. 10+, 20+ years ago…guys like Kyle Trask would be definite NFL starters. Maybe not great players, but they would be coveted in drafts and pushed into lineups – big body, tall, decent arm. However, in this era…Trask is a dinosaur. Cement shoes for mobility in the pocket. Mostly 1980s football style the league is moving away from – a 5-7 step drop, set up in the pocket, try and throw downfield. It works in college, when you have high end receiving talent and lesser defensive backs, but in the NFL, I believe Trask’s style is trouble – he’s just not a playmaker, he doesn’t escape trouble, he doesn’t ‘make plays’ or ‘make things happen’.

Trask is merely a serviceable hand who could have a good quarter or good game or two under the right circumstances but in the faster/higher-speed NFL, his average-armed deeper passes are going to be defended/caught up to and then he doesn’t offer much else…he’s not a read option, quick decision, quick release aggressive mover of the offense. He’s a Mike Glennon…drop back, set up, survey, wind up and throw to the best option…everything needs to be perfect around them for things to succeed in this style.

I thought Trask held his own against Alabama (the first tape of him I went to) but he didn’t take it to ‘Bama, he just played a solid game and got away with a few things in a constant deficit, against softer coverage…and having Kyle Pitts as an option/mismatch nightmare is a game changer he could use/abuse as needed. He was OK/not rattled by Alabama, but he also wasn’t a ’wow’ or a fear for the Crimson Tide defense either.

Against Oklahoma, in his 2021 bowl game, three interceptions in the 1st-quarter. Not all his fault, but he never recovered from it and didn’t get his team back in it…in fact, he got ‘benched’ in a sense (game was out of hand in the 3rd-quarter so they got guys for next year some playing time).  

Trask is a nice story – never started in high school (played behind a top high school QB prospect his entire HS career) and then wasn’t starting for Florida his first few years either until an injury to the main starter hit early 2019 season and Trask came to the rescue and played well enough to not give the job back.

Trask just seems like a nice dude, hard worker, but a guy who is kinda typecast as a backup/not ‘the guy’ and he fits it. I don’t ever see ‘franchise QB’ when I watch Trask on the field or in interviews. Trask doesn’t have any ‘it’ factor, to my eyes.

Kyle Trask, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

Trask threw for 6 TDs in a game twice this season but did so against the weaker defenses of Ole Miss (#117 CFB defense out of 127 teams) and Arkansas (#99 CFB defense).

In his favor, against top 50 CFB defenses (Ga, Texas A&M, LSU, Ala., Oklahoma)…Trask averaged 365 passing yards, 2.6 TDs/1.2 INTs per game…pretty strong, but he also threw the ball a ton…he led all the NCAA in pass attempts in 2020 season. Trask also posted a (1-4) record against that group. Trask threw a lot of passes and thus racked a lot of numbers, but on a per throw basis he was not a standout in any way in our computer analysis.

I don’t want to fully give up on Trask as a decent pro prospect because some of his output was so strong in tough games, but watching those games there were a lot of ‘meh’ moments and some luck and some Kyle Pitts just being unreal…but mostly it was Trask playing solid ball.

Trask ended his college career with three straight losses and 5 TDs/5 INTs in those three games. It may be an unfair snippet/sample to judge him on that last stretch – but, at a minimum, it will undermine any NFL Draft momentum he had heading into 2021…as it certainly had destroyed his Heisman hope as well.

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Kyle Trask Most Compares Within Our System:

I thought of Mason Rudolph before I saw that the computer liked that comp as well. I think Trask looks better than Eason or Darnold as pro prospects, but a lesser Mason Rudolph feels like a best comp discussion. 

*’LJax rating’ – new for 2021, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents.

**“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. 

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys. 

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see Trask mostly rated as a 2nd-round prospect in the early, public draft rankings…the consolation prize for the teams that want a QB from this draft but Lawrence-Fields-Wilson-Lance were taken ahead of them. 

It’s possible Trask falls to the 3rd/4th-round if he participates in the Combine and shows how he has more of an average arm and is very slow afoot. He agent should bar him from running a 40-time anywhere at any time. 

In the end, I see him going later 3rd-round to a team looking for a solid backup to groom behind an entrenched, aging starter – to Indy behind Philip Rivers, to Tampa Bay behind Tom Brady, etc. He fits a Bruce Arians scheme better than any other scheme in the NFL today. 

NFL Outlook:   

My bet on Track would be he’s a backup who gets a shot or two over time but never ‘wows’ anyone and teams and fans are looking past him and onto other things/hopes in 2-3 years – again, the Mason Rudolph story.

I do not close the door on him becoming a serviceable starter in the NFL at some point. I see some shreds of hope/rays of light but overall, I just do not see any ‘it’ here to get wildly excited about. 

1/7/2021