2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Davis Mills, Stanford

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

Davis Mills declared for the 2021 NFL Draft, with a year of eligibility left – and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why.

Mills became the starting QB partway into the 2019 season when incumbent starter K.J. Costello got hurt/was lost for the year. Mills was solid enough in 2019…65.6% Comp. Pct. with 11 TDs/5 INTs in 6 games of heavy play/starting. His 3rd real ‘start’ he set the school record with 504 yards passing – that’s great, but it was against the non-defense of Washington State, and in a big loss.

There were some expectations for Mills going into 2020 season – enough that K.J. Costello transferred to Mississippi State and Mills was entrenched as the Cardinal starter. Then COVID, then the PAC 12 lagged in playing their season, then Mills got in five games of mediocre ball – and now he is going pro.

Mills has his ‘fans’ in scouting, but I’m not one of them. He’s just not very good.

His tape makes me think of every backup QB that head coaches love in the NFL…technically sound in a perfect environment. Has fundamentals under no pressure. Decent touch on his passes. Not a great arm but functional. In shorts and t-shirt drills, Mills looks fine. But when the bullets start flying, there are problems. He can get the ball to his first read if it is open. If it’s not – there’s trouble. When his first option is covered, Mills either throws it anyway, he throws into danger way too much…almost as if he doesn’t see the danger/coverage…or he pulls the throw back and doesn’t have a quick instinct on secondary reads, and he panics and leaves himself open to sacks and junk throwaways.

Mostly Mills plays it safe as a passer when the game is close…he likes to take the easier throws and tries to avoid throwing picks and incompletions. It’s good for college and safe enough in an emergency start in the pros, but if a big play needs to be made or a big throw needs to happen on 3rd & long – that’s not Mills’ bread and butter. He’s a caretaker QB, runner of the play called.  

When the pocket is right, and throw is safe…Mills can deliver a capable throw. When imperfection happens…Mills is not getting you out of danger. He doesn’t have the feet to extend plays nor the ‘plus’ arm to throw in a muddy situation. Mills, to me, just doesn’t have any ‘it’ features at all. He would be at his best as a ‘camp arm’ or Pro Day thrower to showcase the WRs.

Mills has good character. He is reliable. He was a team captain. He will get a shot this summer in training camp, but he’s just a warm body – a warm body some coaches will really like…the kinda ‘great at holding a clipboard’ coach’s pet/errand boy.

Davis Mills, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Five games in 2020 season…his first four games all with 1 TD/0 INT passing exactly in each game. His final game, against UCLA 3 TDs/3 INTs. 

 -- In the six games Mills has been asked to throw 35 or more times, 11 TDs/8 INTs. Too many turnovers and near turnovers the more throws he has to make.

 -- Accurate, safe passer...takes the safe throw and doesn’t push the envelope often – 66.8% Comp. Pct. once he became the main starter his last 10 college games. 

Over 70% Comp. Pct when throwing 35 times a game or less. 62% when throwing more than 35 times in a game. 

Pro Day Measurables projection…

6‘3”/220, 9.5” hands

4.95+ 40-time, 7.3+ three-cone.

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Davis Mills Most Compares Within Our System:

Mills compares with nice, solid college QBs of the past…ones that were never drafted or made it past a cup of coffee in the pros, so far. 

*’LJax rating’ – new for 2021, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents.

**“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. 

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys. 

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

In January, he is tracking as a UDFA prospect everywhere. I’m not sure if he’ll get a chance to show off to pull himself into the draft. Stanford coach David Shaw may pull some strings, but most likely he’ll be undrafted and start his journey from there.

If I were an NFL GM, I would not be interested in Mills. There’s no chance at a shocking upside that I can see. There are better gamble QB prospects than Mills to take late or as UDFAs.

NFL Outlook:   

Likely gets a training camp look and may stick to a practice squad for a season or two…and then I would expect he takes his Stanford education and does something he wants with his life – it won’t be playing NFL QB.

1/24/2021