NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Reports: RB Damarea Crockett, Missouri

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

I didn’t believe I was going to like Damarea Crockett as much as I did as a prospect. I had kinda felt negative going in. A big freshman splash onto the scene, and then injuries, a split role, a tail off in overall numbers after the freshman splash…plus a 2016 arrest for marijuana.

But if you can eliminate the negatives, which may have nothing to do with his play, and look at the positives – there’s a really interesting prospect hiding here, I do believe. If you walk into the SEC as a freshman, on a bad Missouri team, and run for 1,062 yards…you’re not chopped liver – and Crockett did that with five 100+ yard games, four of them 145+ yard rushing games, and three of the 145+ games against SEC opponents, with a season finale 225 yards rushing vs. Tennessee. He doesn’t suck.

Combine some of these college flashes with a 4.40 40-time at his Pro Day (a Combine snub) at 5’10”+/224 pounds… you have to take notice.

Still, I felt like (pre-study) this was just another guy who did well in the SEC for a blip, couldn’t sustain it and it was probably because of poor character.

Then I learned he missed the 2nd-half of his 2017 season due to a shoulder injury. And lost a game in 2017 due to an ankle injury…and that helped keep some of his numbers down. He also started splitting time with other RBs and was the lesser used part of a duo with Larry Roundtree in 2018, but when given the opportunity – he was the better back between them. I’m not sure what Missouri was thinking or if RBBC was their set plan, but Crockett didn’t get the full workload he was capable of.  

The more I studied, the more I started to take Crockett’s side of the prospect argument. I started to see reasons/excuses for his dip as his career went on, but the only reason I was open to it – his tape is pretty darn good.

Crockett is as well built a 224-pound RB prospect as you’ll encounter. Not bulky or lanky, just pure muscle definition. He may have the best sculpted arms in the 2019 draft (not the biggest, just the most ‘ripped’/’cut’). He’s 224-pounds of sleek steel and he runs a 4.4+ 40.

I loved his tape watching him work as an inside runner. He’s as good a between the guards runner as there is in this draft. He runs downhill, he has burst with breakaway speed if he has the space, and he has a sweet shiftiness to avoid contact and slither through traffic for maximum yardage.

Let me say it this way – you swap teams/situations on Crockett and Josh Jacobs in 2018, then Crockett might be the #1 RB prospect in this draft hands down and Jacobs would be a guy with question marks for sharing a backfield (instead of that being a reason for people to oddly just love him more…something about ‘less tread’).

Crockett is somewhat like Jacobs in his SEC Career…shared a backfield, is a big, shifty power runner between the tackles. Only, Jacobs went to Alabama, so that trumps the rest of the argument – Crockett is much faster, about five pounds bigger/thicker, and had better production and more big games in the SEC…doing so with a lesser offensive line and team.

I’m not saying Crockett is a for sure NFL star, but he’s definitely as/more capable than Josh Jacobs. Is he more injury prone? I mean, he missed time in 2017 with a shoulder…not a debilitating issue. I wouldn’t say injuries haunted Crockett. Jacobs didn’t get the ball near as much, so maybe Jacobs has sustainability issues…we just don’t know it yet.

Jacobs is smarter in the classroom, and a class act off the field. Crockett was arrested for pot in 2016 but came back and won an underclassman leadership award in 2018 – so, let’s say he’s definitely headed in the right direction since his 2016 negative event.

You give me a choice between Jacobs and Crockett…I take Crockett, especially for the price but all things equal I’ll probably still take Crockett as a talent. You think that’s inflammatory, or anti-Jacobs? See if you are willing to join me after the next section…

Damarea Crockett, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

 -- If you just look at Crockett’s games with 12 or more carries in his career (19 games), he averaged per game…

16.7 carries, 108.3 yards rushing, 6.5 ypc, 0.95 TDs per game = Crockett (12+ carries in a game)

Compare that to Josh Jacobs, who only had 7 games in his career with 10 or more carries to even try to do a comparison…

13.6 carries, 77.6 rushing yards, 5.7 ypc, 0.86 TDs = Jacobs (10+ carries in a game).

 -- Crockett took 18 or more carries in a game nine times in his career, his average per game…

21.2 carries, 144.1 rushing yards, 6.8 ypc, 1.2 TDs per game = Crockett (18+ carries in a game)

We can’t compare Jacobs in this because he took 18 or more carries in a game ONCE in his career…20-97-1 vs. Miss State/2018.

 -- In eight of those 9 games with 18+ carries for Crockett, he ran for 100+ yards. He ran for 145+ yards in six of those games (four of those 6 games against SEC opponents). He ran for 200+ yards in two of those games.

Josh Jacobs high rushing yards in a game in his Alabama career was = 100 exactly.

Josh Jacobs cannot hold a candle to Crockett in college performance within the same conference, with Crockett doing so on a much worse team, and splitting carries himself (like Jacobs). It doesn’t matter what performance number you look at – Crockett was better than Jacobs in the SEC the past three years. Plus, Crockett, as I said before, measures bigger and faster. So…why is Josh Jacobs going top 20 and Crockett not likely a top 200 pick? NFL logic.

The one area Jacobs may have Crockett beat is in the passing game, but I cannot definitively say that because Crockett/the Mizzou RBs were little used in the erratic passing game of the Drew Lock era. *Watching Crockett’s work meant I saw more Drew Lock…man, what a joke. Why is Jacobs the #1 back in the draft and Crockett couldn’t get a Combine invite? I dunno…the same experts think Drew Lock is a top QB prospect!

Crockett lost three fumbles in 2017 in six games/80 carries…that was a problem, but 147 carries in 2017 and one fumble. So, any fumble issues in 2017 may not be a big issue…but it’s something we had to note for some concern.

2019 Pro Day Measurables…

5’10.6”/224

4.40 40-time

37.0” vertical

*Everything else is missing/unreliable/didn’t participate in.

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Damarea Crockett Most Compares Within Our System:

I didn’t think of Nick Chubb as a comp initially, but now that the computer suggests it – it makes sense. Chubb pre-his knee injury (2016) was a gifted between the tackle’s runner – a bruiser who had a sixth sense to shift away from hits/trouble. I felt he lost it some, post-knee injury, but started to get it back in the pros after a slow start. Crockett reminds me of a poor man’s Nick Chubb, but not all that poor.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see Crockett with 6th+ round projections and that’s probably correct for someone who didn’t get an NFL Combine invite.

If I were an NFL GM, this situation is exactly why I would never take a running back with a top 100 pick. Why waste the draft pick when the analysts’ terrible scouting and reporting on prospects will give you golden opportunities at guys like Crockett later in the draft? I would love to have a shot at a cheap Damarea Crockett in the NFL RBBC that I’d run.

NFL Outlook:   

He’ll be snubbed early because of his later-round draft status. He’ll have to grind his way, and have some luck, to become an NFL impact player. If Crockett finds his way to a team with not a ton of RB depth chart talent, and it’s a one-cut running system – watch out. 

3/28/2019