*Our DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
This is one of the easiest scouting studies of the year. I mean, what’s there to say? Everyone has thought Nick Bosa was the best prospect for the 2019 NFL Draft since 2017. You turn on the tape, and he’s great…better than his brother, in my book. He tested pretty similarly to his brother at the NFL Combine. He has the pedigree, the measurables, the proven on-field performance. What else is left to say?
Really the biggest question is – How great is he? And how great relative to this entire draft class.
How good/great is he? Well, I have always believed he was better than his brother Joey Bosa…and though I’m not a huge fan of Joey, I do acknowledge he has been a nice pass rusher in the NFL – I still could argue he’s not as good/valuable as people think. And with that, I believe Nick is the real deal…the Bosa without the flaws.
Comparing the brothers…
Joey, to me, puts his head down and rushes the backfield every play and has little idea what else is going on, nor does he care. He’s trying to get sacks…and there’s a place for that, but for every sack he gets he might leave wide open area on 4-5-10+ plays. Joey also comes from the left side of the line against, typically, the weaker tackle (the right tackle).
Nick on the other hand, comes from the right side against the (usually) better blocking left tackle – and Nick dominates them. Nick has the same affliction as Joey…in that he is mostly head down and get after the backfield, but Nick is so much more effective that he makes other plays just by the force of getting to the backfield so quickly.
Nick Bosa is an elite ‘getter to the backfield’ on every snap, and that’s worth its weight in gold.
Nick Bosa tested well, but not ‘wow’ at the NFL Combine…but when I watch his tape, his get-off on the snap is excellent, his foot movement is graceful as a dance (which is crazy at his size), and he is a brick wall…blockers don’t move him backwards and he just trucks over blockers if they aren’t perfect in their technique. In some senses, he’s the perfect pass rusher/disruptor on the D-Line.
His tape shows greatness. His measurables show goodness. His style of play is more limited to disruptor versus giving you anything in the other facets of the game. He’d be wasted as a 3-4 DE, and he’d look as goofy/terrible as Jadeveon Clowney does sometimes as a 3-4 OLB dropping into coverage. You draft Nick Bosa to create backfield havoc and you live with some of the consequences when he over-rushes the backfield and the offense runs plays through his abandoned area.
DE prospect Montez Sweat is a far better athlete, though not as strong/powerful as Bosa, but Sweat can play the run and drop into coverage, etc. – Sweat gives you more dimensions, whereas you ‘hire’ Bosa to do ONE THING…and he does that very well. Trying to compare Bosa-Sweat is comparing Vanilla and Chocolate Ice Cream…people typically like/love both, but they love one more than the other. What are you in the mood for? Both these guys are ‘generational talents’. Pick one for your defensive style/desire.
Nick Bosa also appears to be smarter and more personable than his brother. Nick has made all Big-Ten Academic teams. There are no issues off the field it would appear. His brother Joey is much more aloof and robotic, but it doesn’t matter when you rack sacks…you don’t ‘hire’ him to give speeches.
Nick Bosa got a core muscle injury early in the 2018 college season, and then just withdrew from school to rehab and prep for the NFL Draft. Some people don’t like that, but they are the whiny babies among us. Nick Bosa has been destined to be the #1 pick in the draft for 2+ years. He had limited time left with OSU, and the rest of his life would be as an NFL millionaire. He owed nothing to Ohio State, and owed everything to not rushing himself back and risk getting reinjured and hurting his career/draft stock. Bosa withdrawing from school to focus on his payday shows how smart/savvy he is.
Nick Bosa, Through the Lens of Our DE Scouting Algorithm:
Bosa registered a sack in six of his last seven college games… 8.5 sacks total and 11.5 TFLs. There has never been a production issue with Nick – in fact, had he played all of 2018 he might have set records for a season with production.
Against Michigan 2x, Oklahoma 2x, USC and Clemson (his top opponents), Bosa averaged 2.8 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.75 sacks per game.
Bosa played just three games in 2018; if we extrapolated those games into a 13-game season, Bosa was trending for 61 tackles, 26.0 TFL, 13.0 sacks.
2019 NFL Combine Measurables…
6’3.6”/266, 10.75” hands, 33” arms
4.79 40-time, 1.60 10-yard, 4.14 shuttle, 7.10 three-cone
29 bench reps, 33.5” vertical, 9’8” broad jump
The Historical DE Prospects to Whom Nick Bosa Most Compares Within Our System:
Mostly good-great pass rushers on the comp list, as to be expected. Bosa in the Chris Long (in his prime) and Myles Garrett class of pass rushers, a better version of brother Joey…seems about right.
|
DE Score |
Last |
First |
Yr |
College |
H |
H |
W |
Tackle, Strngth Metric |
Speed, Agility Metric |
Pass Rush Metric |
Tackle Metric |
|
10.395 |
Bosa |
Nick |
2019 |
Ohio St. |
6 |
3.6 |
266 |
11.02 |
7.07 |
8.48 |
5.19 |
|
10.781 |
Long |
Chris |
2008 |
Virginia |
6 |
3.0 |
272 |
11.12 |
8.48 |
8.74 |
7.26 |
|
10.415 |
Garrett |
Myles |
2017 |
Texas A&M |
6 |
4.4 |
272 |
10.14 |
8.85 |
8.66 |
6.43 |
|
6.982 |
Bosa |
Joey |
2016 |
Ohio State |
6 |
5.2 |
269 |
7.22 |
7.29 |
8.39 |
6.56 |
|
7.002 |
Jackson |
Lawr. |
2008 |
USC |
6 |
4.2 |
271 |
9.76 |
5.26 |
8.26 |
7.54 |
|
7.696 |
Lawson |
Shaq |
2016 |
Clemson |
6 |
2.5 |
269 |
8.76 |
6.39 |
8.28 |
5.11 |
|
7.262 |
Te'o-Nshm |
Daniel |
2010 |
Washington |
6 |
3.4 |
263 |
9.71 |
9.50 |
6.76 |
7.27 |
|
9.445 |
Houston |
Justin |
2011 |
Georgia |
6 |
2.7 |
270 |
9.40 |
10.42 |
6.40 |
7.17 |
*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL DE.
All of the DE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.
Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DE prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DE, a 'bull-rusher', and/or a DE prospect who has some DT capabilities.
Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DEs who profile more as speed-rush, stand-up DEs, and/or possible OLBs.
Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DE is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the 'system'/scheme the DE goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player's skills and performance history. "You can't keep a good man/DE down," we'd like to think.
Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DE as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower-scoring DEs in this subcategory tend to be more pure pass-rushers/specialists. This is also our attempt to quantify, if it's possible, the 'toughness' of a player.
2019 NFL Draft Outlook:
He’s going top three in the NFL Draft…we’ll see if it is #1-2-3.
If I were an NFL GM, if I wanted a pure disruptor for my D-Line…you can’t do much better than Nick Bosa. You could debate Montez Sweat for the other things he brings. It just depends upon what style you want/need.
NFL Outlook:
Going to have a long fruitful career with a lot of sacks and make a lot of money over the years.
3/18/2019
