NFL Draft 2018 Scouting Report: RB Chris Warren III, Texas

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

Chris Warren is one of those ‘keep your eye on’ prospects analysts and local (to the player) sportswriters talk about…and then no one ever really keeps their eye on him. He’s easy to slap the ‘keep an eye on’ label. He has a massive size (6’2”/247) and had one big game that one time (Texas Tech/2015/true freshman…25 carries for 276 yards and 4 TDs). However, that seems to be the extent of the case for him…actually, most of it is ‘size’. 

I would like to make the case for Warren as one of the better RB prospects in this draft…emphasis on the word ‘prospect’. He’s definitely not ready-made and comes with risk for sure but hear me out. My four-point theme…

1: The size is meaningful.

Look, 6’2/247 and running a reasonable 4.69 40-time (at that size) and then an eye-catching 6.98 three-cone (at that size) and a top 5 best among RBs at the Combine 4.18 shuttle…it’s impressive. Add in 25 reps on the bench…and then add in that he looks like an MMA fighter, all muscle…he’s worth investigating just on size/appearance. He’s one of those guys that’s 245+ pounds and looks like he’s a svelte 225 pounds.

2: The skills exist, to some degree.

He was a four-star recruit out of high school. He is the son of a former successful NFL RB. He did have a couple of big games for Texas. He’s not just ‘size’. He has shown something on tape.

The best way I could describe him is that he runs like water off a dam/water break. If you think about a rush of water going downhill…the water is moving fast and anything that gets in its way it just goes around it, bowls through it, climbs over the top of it, etc. Warren has some raw downhill power running skills that may be the best ‘downhill power’ in the class. He’s so much mass in a muscle-hamster frame that tacklers bounce off him and I don’t think he realizes it.

Drink this in for 30-seconds: https://youtu.be/6KYFz6YwEDg

Warren not only runs physical, but he also has some patience. He’s not just a straight-ahead bulldozer. I noted on tape several times that Warren does a mini-Le’Veon Bell and pauses with purpose at the line and shifts around quickly looking for his space to pop through. And then God help any defender in his way if he gets any head of steam going. 

Warren has size, power, balance, decent speed, nice agility…and shows some instincts as a runner and is plausible in the short passing game (screens and swings). He reminds me a bit of Derrick Henry…maybe a little quicker east-west.

3: There is production.

The first time Warren got real playing time, as a true freshman in 2015, he set a Texas record with 25 carries for 276 yards and 4 rushing TDs. He followed that with 106 rushing yards versus Baylor. 

In 2016, he was going to be ‘the man’…but after 4 games he hurt his PCL and was lost for the rest of the season. He played in 4 games in 2016. If I extrapolate those four games out to a typical 13-game college season…1,189 yards rushing, 5.9 yards per carry, six 100+ yard rushing games projected, and 10 TDs. Not bad for a true sophomore. 

In 2017, he was splitting time in an RBBC with a new coach…and then was later moved to tight end because of mounting injuries the team had (and he was not happy about it). 

Warren got to carry the ball 16 or more times in a game seven times in his career and rushed for 100+ yards five times. 

4: ‘What might be…’

It’s the ‘what might be’ that everyone should take seriously. 

What if 6’2”/247 Chris Warren, and his 4.69 40-time and 6.98 three-cone, decided to slim down to 235-pounds a la a young Le’Veon Bell?

Just for fun…what would you say to these projections? 235 pounds, maybe a 4.55 40-time? 6.75-6.80 three-cone?  Those are some pretty salty numbers for a rock of a human being. 

Warren is a pretty stout physically-imposing prospect as it is…but what if he undertook an even more radical body transformation…which is not difficult for him to consider? He’s a rare prospect that you can say this about and have hope it comes true. With some work, you might turn Warren into a near-elite constructed NFL RB. 

There’s a downside risk here…

Many question Warren’s passion for the game. Warren has a lot of off field interests that scare scouts…immature interests, as they are perceived. He loves video games and social media stuff…things that scare 40+ year old scouts (and most 40+ year old humans). He seems more passionate about inconsequential things than he is about football/his hoped vocation. 

I would also add he’s an honor roll student and has the body of a Greek god…so, he’s not just sitting on the couch eating Doritos and playing video games at all hours. A lot of players play video games…Warren is more vocal about his passion for them. I think he gets a bad rap by out-of-touch middle-aged football scouts and analysts in this area. 

The NFL Draft is designed to take guys like Warren and try to develop them at some point. You rarely get raw pieces of clay like this…at a certain point NFL teams should take a chance and put in the work with him. They probably won’t, and they’ll try to make him a fullback or blocking tight end. 

Chris Warren III, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

In 2015, Warren sat behind D’Onta Foreman and others as a true freshman. He was finally thrust into real action late in the season and rushed for 276 yards and then 106 yards in the final two games of the season. He was a starter in 2016 and came out pretty hot against a fairly tough early season schedule and then was lost for the season with injury. He played as a starter early 2017 but then was in a split role and eventually moved to tight end. Warren has a limited stretch where he was considered ‘the man’ and some/most of that due to circumstances outside his control.

Warren was basically taken seriously as a lead RB in two games at the end of 2015, and four games he started (until injury) in 2016, and the first two games into 2017…and 8 game stretch where he averaged 118.1 yards rushing and 1.1 rushing TDs per game…a 1,500+ rushing/15+ TD pace for a 13-game season. 

Later in 2017, he was the short yardage guy and tight end and his yards per carry dropped off the face of the earth but in his two 2015 starts and four 2016 starts…six games and an average of 6.5 yards per carry. 

Before he became the short yardage guy, in his first 10 rushing TDs of his college career…4 of them were from 20+ yards away and six of them were from 10+ yards out. He was not just a 1-yard TD vulture. He had enough speed to run past guys but mostly they could catch up to him…they just couldn’t tackle him. His highlight reel is filled with runs where he emerged from pile up for 5-10+ yard runs or carries 2-3-4-5 defenders for 5-6-7+ yards of action. His highlight reel is kinda insane. 

Highlights on Youtube (not my music choice): https://youtu.be/dNC3YhYXb14

2018 NFL Combine measurables…

6’2”/247, 33.8” arms, 9.25” hands

4.69 40-time, 2.74 20-yard, 1.66 10-yard, 4.18 shuttle, 6.98 three-cone

25 bench press, 33.0 vertical, 10’1” broad jump

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Chris Warren III Most Compares Within Our System:

Allen Bradford – a kinda similar college path as Warren. Both big dudes with serious NFL measurables but no consistency of play/output in college, but then had a few massive games (200+ yard efforts) to get your attention. Bradford was eventually moved to middle linebacker in the NFL and played as a backup/starter for a few years.

You see Le’Veon and Carlos Hyde on here…two guys that transformed their bodies after coming in heavy at their NFL Combines/Pro Days. They should be Warren’s role models on ‘what could be’.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2018 NFL Draft Outlook:

Taken late in the draft, possibly undrafted. 

If I were an NFL GM, I’d take him before the end of the draft to secure him and give him a summer (or two) to prove to me he wanted NFL stardom. I’ve seen him in interviews…he’s pretty intent on being an NFL RB…not a TE or FB, although he said he would do what’s best. He was going to transfer out of Texas in 2018 due to the coach moving him to tight end in 2017, but he decided to go pro instead. 

NFL Outlook:   

Another big guy, nice athlete with a checkered record as a college RB…and the NFL tries to make him an H-back, fullback, tight end, or linebacker. 

OR

Guy who cuts down under 240 pounds, gains more speed and agility, and is a poor man’s Leonard Fournette. 

OR

Has a poor rookie training camp and is not mentioned much besides bouncing from practice squad to future’s contract and back for a few years. 

4/2/2018