*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 


Carlos Henderson is a very good, scrappy college wide receiver. He's a solid pro prospect, BUT he's nothing special. That may be a bit harsh – he's really very solid. He belongs in the NFL. He can contribute. However, from what I see in the data and on tape, he's not radically changing an offense. He can contribute but he will be a forgettable #4-ish type wide receiver over the long haul. He can start and be reliable but he's not a game changer. I see Henderson ranked with/ahead of Cooper Kupp and/or Zay Jones, and I wonder if people have lost their minds.

I can see the legitimacy of calling Carlos Henderson an 'Antonio Brown'-like prospect – smaller in size, good hands/routes, mid-major school, good return man. All those things are true, and they are what make Henderson a legit NFL prospect. I just don’t see the 'flash' in Henderson that you see in Antonio Brown…or Cooper Kupp and Zay Jones. Henderson, to me, looks like every 'good' college receiver who played on a high-flying offense. He's better than many WRs in this class but looking back over the last few draft classes…Henderson is more of a later round pick than a 'must-have', ready-to-go in the NFL weapon.

When I watch Henderson, I see a lot of screen and swing passes and quick timing slants. All good, all reliable, but there's not a domination of defenders – he's just a guy getting open and getting the ball a good amount against the Western Kentuckys and Rices of the world. He runs quality routes. He gives max effort. It's all good but when you watch him on tape – nothing really stands out as an upside except for the fact that you see that he's a nice, quality receiver. Nothing wrong with that – it’s just not draft valued in the top 100 overall. His teammate Trent Taylor is the far superior NFL WR prospect, I believe.

Henderson runs pretty smart, proper routes and is mostly reliable catching the ball. His best feature is a great instinct avoiding tacklers after the catch with a keen change of direction ability. Henderson tested poorly in his agility drills at the NFL Combine, but on tape he seems to have a sixth sense locating oncoming defenders in the open field and sidestepping them and finding his way to more yards. It's going to make him a solid pro, and a solid return man – just not 'great' or 'special', I just don’t think he has that extra 'great' gear for the next level.

With Henderson, you are getting a non-bust wide receiver. A solid member of your receiving corps. Someone who is a nice pickup in the 5th+ round. A great guy at practice and as a rotational part of the WR group and maybe working his way to starter over a few seasons. He's not going to change your offense radically, nor will he hurt it. I like Henderson, I just do not believe his skillset warrants a burn of a top 100 draft pick…it's bad draft economics.


Carlos Henderson, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

The 2016 Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year.

In his games against elevated competition in the past three seasons, against Illinois (2014/bowl), Kansas State (2015) and Arkansas (2016), Henderson averaged 5.3 catches for 81.7 yards and no TDs and only 20.3 yards per kick return.

Henderson scored 19 TDs in 2016…9 of them coming in two games (vs. UMass and North Texas)

His 2016 game vs. UMass: 12 catches for 326 yards and 5 TDs…UMass was 2-10 last season and was #108 (of 128) in points allowed for their defense.

Henderson returned 3 kicks for TD in his career, he's #4 all-time in Conference USA in kick return TDs (since 1976).


NFL Combine data

5'11.0"/199, 31.4" arms, 9.1" hands

4.46 40-time, 7.18 three-cone (third worst time among 200 pounds or less WR prospects at the Combine), 4.35 shuttle

13 reps bench press, 36.0" vertical, 10'11" broad jump


Henderson stats on CFB Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carlos-henderson-1.html


The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Carlos Henderson Most Compares Within Our System:

I hadn’t thought of it prior, but when I saw our scouting model projections comparing Henderson to Randall Cobb – I loved it. A perfect comp. Do realize, in this era of ever improving WR prospects from college, that Randall Cobb is just an average prospect today (and I mean the Cobb entering the league from the draft version…not his more broken down current version). Cobb was kind average-to-good in his heyday…just lucked out to land with Aaron Rodgers. I said from day one – had Randall Cobb been drafted by the Bills or Jets, etc., he would have never been on the football fan radar or become a multi-millionaire.


WR Score

Draft Yr







Power Strngth Metric

Speed Agility Metric

Hands Metric





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*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

I am seeing Henderson projected between picks #50-75 all over the place. I can't believe that's going to happen based on scouting him…but there are enough indicators that lead me to believe he will go right in that range.

NFL Outlook:   

I think Henderson is more a #4 WR on an NFL roster. He's closer to being a fringe player we don’t think much about in 2-3 years than he is an instant impact guy in year one or two.