NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: WR Ishmael Zamora, Baylor

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

There are two parts to examine and measure in any Ishmael Zamora scouting report…

(1) There is the physically talented (40" vertical, 11'1" broad jump, 4.43 40-time at Pro Day) and NFL-big (6'3"+/224) wide receiver who looks like a pro weapon the first time you lay eyes on him in his highlight reel.

(2) The guy who was suspended for three games for a snapchat video posted of him beating his dog.

We have to talk about the dog issue first because it absolutely relates to what I'll discuss watching tape.

If there were no 'dog issue', Zamora would likely have been an NFL Combine invite and a heavily discussed sleeper. I've seen some analysis on Zamora that basically mentions the issue as 'video of Zamora disciplining his dog'. Making it seem like he was a little terse with his dog and was unlucky to have it caught on video. Either those people have not watched the video of it…or they have no soul whatsoever.

I've seen the Zamora video and it made me want to throw up -- and I'm not writing that sentence for effect. Zamora didn't hit his dog once in the heat of the moment…which would have been bad enough. He had what looked like a belt, a big strap and he had his dog back against a wall and he reared back and whipped his own helpless dog 4-5-6-7 times (from what could be seen). Doing so with full force, fury and rage. When the dog tried to slink away at one point towards the end of the video…Zamora hauled off and started kicking him.

Zamora claims this was to train him, discipline him for going to the bathroom in the house.

You want to hate a human being. Watch that tape. Actually, don't. It's depressing and sickening.

I understand a half-hearted spank and stern words for a young dog to try to train them on an item. Some people would not spank a dog or child, and that's a separate debate. What Zamora did was a violent beatdown. When Joe Mixon punched that female, if after she fell down, helpless on the floor, he started full throttle punching her some more and topped it off with a few final kicks – Mixon would be in prison for most of the rest of his life. Zamora basically did that to a dog and was suspended for three games. I thought it was an impossibility to hate Baylor's football program and its misconducts more…I was then exposed to this hypocrisy on Zamora.

To me, what Zamora did transcends a heat of the moment incident and is a window into his soul. Perhaps, through therapy, etc. Zamora can become a changed man, but everything I see with Zamora TODAY makes me question his mindset on the field as well.

If there were no dog video of Zamora, then I would simply be out here today calling him an overrated, lazy, enigma of a wide receiver. Physically, he is an NFL starter profile. His production and tape make you think 'sloppy, lazy, bust'. Combining all of that with the haunting video…it makes you lean 'bust' even more versus trying to see a 'super sleeper'.

There are a few plays on Zamora's highlight reel that can get you excited. People have compared him to Josh Gordon for a variety of reasons, and I think the label somewhat fits. There are moments when Zamora is just better than his college defenders. You see his length, vertical, and broad jump and think he will be a difficult athlete to contain at the next level.

I see Zamora as more of a track and field guy – trained in such things, and a track and field star, so he has an advantage in measurables like the broad jump. However, at the end of the day he ran a 4.53 at his Pro Day…which in reality could be more in the 4.6 range, and that's not 'wow' for the NFL. His agility times were poor – 4.34 shuttle and 7.10 three-cone. Acceptable, but not 'wow'. He can jump high-end, but his speed-agility are average to below average for the NFL.

Can he play? This is where Zamora really dies for me as a prospect. Zamora had a decent 2016 season – 63 catches for 809 yards and 8 TDs in 10 games (suspended for 3 games). He would have had 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs, maybe, in a full season. However, note that Zamora blew up Texas Tech (12-155-1), which basically has no defense – every QB and receiver rocks Texas Tech. He had a big game against Oklahoma State (8-175-2) but his big play in that game was a pass intended for another receiver which ricocheted off that receiver's hands and right to Zamora. The change in trajectory/action caught the defense off guard and Zamora took the gift and ran untouched for a 38-yard TD. Aside from the Texas Tech game, and maybe the Oklahoma State game…Zamora was pretty tame in 2016. He was nothing in 2015. He had moments in 2016. Nothing sustained or totally dominating.

I'd also add that Baylor had a wide-open offense, and there were numbers to be had. Most of the Baylor receivers worked downfield. Zamora was mostly kept to a quick/bubble/tunnel screen guy and some slants. Watching game after game, I was wondering why they didn’t cut Zamora loose more. I think between his head for the game possibly being in question, I also saw two other things that turned me off even before I saw the video with his dog…

(1) You knew when it was going to be a Baylor run play…because when Zamora was not inline/tapped for a quick pass, he barely seemed interested in the game. He slowly lifts of the snap and stands there. He didn’t seem all that interested in helping shape the play with an energetic decoy move and then seeking to block. Mostly, he just slowly rose up and gawked at the play, standing all alone.

(2) He fears contact…or he tries to avoid it at all costs. He might have a track and field player's heart for football. It's fun running around to get the ball and running on the loose. As soon as contact approaches -- Zamora is headed out of bounds. When coverage is tight or the route is slanting into danger, Zamora is prone to drops looking up to see what danger might be around.

Zamora is just not my cup of tea. You can have Josh Gordon, Martavis Bryant, and Ishmael Zamora.

With Zamora I see a potential sociopath who is lazy and underproductive on the field, and doesn’t seem 100% into the game. A few people see 'big vertical and he's 6'3"'. You want amazing leaping skills and sweet broad jump, go trade for better human, more talented, more athletic Chris Conley.

Ishmael Zamora, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

Facing Oklahoma State (and take out his 38-yard tipped TD), Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Boise State (bowl)…his five toughest opponents from 2016…Zamora averaged 6.6 catches, 79.6 yards and 0.40 TDs per game. Lots of catches, but note he sees lots of simple passes to catch as well…a ton of quick passes, bubble screens, etc. Short on TD production against the big boys. A guy like him should dominate the end zone…he really didn't.

If not for the tipped pass TD versus Oklahoma State, Zamora would have never had more than 1 TD in a game in his 20-game career at Baylor.

K.D. Cannon was the Baylor go-to WR, not Ishmael Zamora.

Pro Day data…

6'3.5"/224

4.53 40-time, 4.34 shuttle, 7.10 three-cone

13 bench reps, 40.0" vertical, 11/1" broad jump

Zamora's stats on CFB Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ishmael-zamora-1.html

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Ishmael Zamora Most Compares Within Our System:

Jonathan Baldwin makes a ton of sense as a comp – highly gifted, physically and an abject bust in the NFL. Didn’t have the heart or attitude to make in the league. Was in locker room fights, etc.

You see Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas type comps and can get excited…there are some DNA markings of Zamora as a potential NFL starter. He has tools. However, guys like Dez Bryant DOMINATED college football. Zamora was hardly recognizable over two years aside from a couple of blips.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

I would guess he'll be an undrafted free agent because of his incident. He's not good enough from his college tape nor his Pro Day to warrant a big reach by a team. I could see him going 7th round but I'd bet priority UDFA.

NFL Outlook:   

I don’t think Zamora is long for the NFL. He'll kick around and get some looks because people see him as highly athletic, but there are so many big, athletic guys entering the NFL at WR…and they produced in school and were model citizens. Zamora is a potential dark cloud entering the NFL. I hope, for human interest sake, he turns his life around…but you have to bet against it with today's data.

4/21/2017