NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: WR Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

I thought I saw some Cameron Meredith-like possibilities in some of my quick tape analysis on Golladay pre-NFL Combine but after watching and studying more game tape – I don’t believe that is the case anymore. I turned my enthusiasm levels down on Golladay after this study.

Golladay is an NFL wide receiver talent, no doubt. He has the size (6'4"/218) and the speed (4.50 40-time, 7.00 three-cone) of an NFL starter and he has very good hands. He's going to be a quality guy to have a roster, but I don’t see any upside to 'great' or 'game-changer'. I see 'quality' and 'competent'.

There are two things that bug me about Golladay after watching the tape, and I think they both matter trying to scout him ahead and when figuring out draft value.

1) Golladay runs sloppy, lazy routes too many times.

Instead of running a crisp slant or 90-degree angle cut in front of soft coverage, Golladay turns to cut and keeps drifting away as he moves to the middle. Visualize the proper route across the middle as an upside-down capital 'L'. Golladay runs more like a capital 'C' route to the middle or outside. I noted in the tape several times that there would have been a great opportunity to get open had Golladay run aggressively and made a sharp cut to give himself the extra time/space from the defender. Instead, Golladay too often started turning not-sharp, thus tipping the defender, while still drifting deep and moving sideways right into the defender…a rounded cut instead of a sharp cut.

I'm not a big 'route' guy while scouting talented receivers because I realize it's something that can be corrected/taught. It just bugs me that Golladay didn’t figure it out naturally or he was just ignoring advice a million people probably gave him. Not good in either case. It was so pronounced in some spots/games I couldn’t stop seeing it in his tape.

2) Golladay tested as a very good athlete, but…

All Golladay's measurables are good+, but when you look at him on the field you see little/no muscles in his calves. He has very skinny calves. It makes him (a) easy to topple/tackle upon contact, and (b) easy to be physical with when a corner gets up in press coverage -- because Golladay doesn’t have as much strength from his base.

There are 3-7 WR prospects like Golladay in every draft (NFL hands and athleticism), so you end up splitting hairs on calf strength and route running matter in judging between them all.

In the end, I watched a few games of tape, and was never like 'wow'. I just watched Taywan Taylor in detail a few days before studying Golladay…and you could see 'it' with Taylor. You could see the evidence of special. I really expected to see it with Golladay, but I didn’t get it.

Kenny Golladay, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

In his three toughest games of 2016, versus 11-win San Diego State and South Florida plus 13-win Western Michigan, Golladay averaged 5.7 catches for 71.3 yards and 0.33 TDs per game.

In his last 16 games, he has just four 100+ yards games.

In 2015, in the MAC title game and in his one career bowl game appearance, two games, he averaged just 1.5 catches for 11.0 yards per game.

Against the top teams, in his two seasons of starting, Golladay has been muted or worse. His biggest games are against UNLV, Murray State, Ball State, and Buffalo.

NFL Combine data…

6'4.0"/218, 32.0" arms, 9.8" hands

4.50 40-time, 4.15 shuttle, 7.00 three-cone

18 bench reps, 35.5" vertical, 10'0" broad jump

Golladay stats on CFB Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kenny-golladay-1.html

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Kenny Golladay Most Compares Within Our System:

Besides the A.J. Green eye catcher, the Binns-Jones-Moye group is what comes to my mind on Golladay…good enough to hang on the fringe. Maybe, gets people excited in preseasons and camps with more opportunity (Binns did before injuries took his career away)…but ultimately a nice and forgettable player.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

Kenny Golladay is ESPN's #57 WR prospect, while he is CBS's #18…and a 4th-round projection. Given his height and good hands, I’d say 5th or 6th round.

NFL Outlook:   

Will be a useful hand in the NFL. Can contribute right away if needed because he is a good catcher and tracker of the ball with nice size. Could hang around the NFL for a while but won't make a huge impact without more work on routes at a minimum.

4/7/2017