NFL Draft 2016 Scouting Report: RB Paul Perkins, UCLA

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

I did my studies on Paul Perkins about the same time I completed studies on Alex Collins and Devontae Booker. After watching these three guys work on tape, and looking over their college career outputs, I'm left with the thought – are we just hard-up for running back prospects to get excited about in 2016?

You won't find any more average, mediocre RB prospects for the NFL than Perkins-Collins-Booker. They all have NFL-worthy athleticism, but on a backup or practice squad type of skill/talent/athletic level. These are not special RB prospects; they're not even close. Somehow the three guys I've mentioned can be consistently found in several top 5–7 RB prospect rankings nationally. It's a bad year for running back prospects.

Perkins may actually be the best of this weak trio for the NFL because he is much more adept in the pass game, as a screen- and short-pass catcher. He really comes out of the backfield from a faux blocking position, and slides into the screen game very adeptly. Very smooth, very polished. That's a good thing for the NFL.

As a runner, Perkins is just an average prospect. Possibly a below-average prospect. He does not have the size-speed-agility package to be an effective three-down NFL running back. Perkins gives you a ton of effort when running the ball, so his tape from college can be impressive. However, when you step back and look at his size and athleticism, and try to translate that to the NFL, it falls short. It has to. A lot of guys have hit on big college plays and had wonderful college seasons…and never sniffed a real workload in the NFL. Perkins is in that same mold.

Watching Perkins' tape game by game, I can only conclude: He was a nice college running back. He gave tremendous effort. He has average NFL athleticism. He's 'useful' at best. What scared me most was that, against better opponents, or even average ones, Perkins was brought down too easily upon contact. He is absolutely not built to run between the tackles in the NFL. What do you do with a guy who is not built for the interior running game, and not enough of a burner to star in the NFL working on the outside?

Perkins is a good kid, and really gives his all. I respect his work on tape, but I judge his skills as 'not enough'. He's OK to have on an NFL roster, but he's not taking any NFL offense to the next level.

Paul Perkins, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

Here's a 'freak out' number: By our count, Perkins has run for 13 TDs against PAC-12 teams with winning records in his career. 12 of those 13 TDs were from 10 yards and closer. 8 of the 13 TDs from 1–3 yards out…six of them from the 1-yard line. His long for a TD among this slice of data – 16 yards. I point this out to reinforce that Perkins is not the speed, change-of-pace, ‘homerun hitter’ guy some portray. He's college-good but will struggle to be a difference maker at the next level.

Perkins caught 80 passes over three years as a heavily used RB at UCLA. His real value to the NFL will be as a steady pass receiver in the short game, but he's not a medium/deep-threat type of 'sneaky' RB out of the backfield. He also sports smaller 9″ hands…not great for the RB pass game, or for carrying the ball securely at the next level.

Among the under-215-pound RB group at the NFL Combine, Perkins was the slowest with a 4.54 40-time. He skipped the agility times at the Combine, and then again at his Pro Day…a big red flag. If I were Perkins's advisor heading into the pre-draft workouts, I would have told him to lose weight to 200 pounds (208 at the Combine) and try to run in the 4.4's with decent agility…and push to be a receiving RB specialist. Instead, I think Perkins fancies himself a bigger RB, and tried to show it at the Combine – it's not the right fit for him. I'm not sure any fit is right.

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Paul Perkins Most Compares Within Our System:

Joseph Randle is a great comparison – college stud, tough runner…flash of a moment in the NFL, but ultimately not built for a consistent, heavy workload. Most of the RB comps we have on Perkins are all guys people liked in college and rated as top 100–150 draft prospects…and then they float around as backups and practice squad guys in the NFL.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2016 NFL Draft Outlook:

 I'm shocked, but not shocked, to see Perkins projected as a top 125 draft pick. It's probably not out of the question since teams will be looking for a smaller running back who can be their passing game option -- in the era of more teams expanding into that realm. Perkins can fill that role, but there are so many other more talented guys that could do the same. Guys who are faster. Guys who have better hands. Guys you can otherwise do more things with. Perkins has 'name' value, draft momentum…and it's going to get him drafted in the top 100–125 or so, when in reality he's more of a UDFA level prospect. There are a million running backs of his caliber to choose from on practice squads and in free agency, and off the streets, and after a particular draft. There's no reason to push for Paul Perkins, but I'm sure some team will probably make that reach in the fourth round.

If I were an NFL GM, I'm a broken record on guys like Alex Collins and Paul Perkins. They can hang in the NFL. They can be useful. However, it's ridiculous to waste draft picks on them, especially in the top 100 picks. So, for that reason, I'm not even considering Perkins on my draft board.

NFL Outlook:   

Because of his draft status, I'm sure Perkins will get chances early on, and if he gets into games, he can do work. All you have to do is get him some of those screen passes, and he'll head upfield. He has a reasonable enough athleticism to be OK at that. What he doesn't have is anything special enough for people to see him as a star, or as a key player as the years unfold. Perkins will get chances early, and then kind of fade off into the sunset after a few years making way for the next versions of Paul Perkins to come up out of college…younger, cheaper versions. I don't expect anything radically special from Perkins, but he can hang or be usable in the NFL, no doubt.

4/14/2016