NFL Draft 2016 Scouting Report: RB Alex Collins, Arkansas

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

I mean…I guess Alex Collins is an OK running back prospect. After watching several of his game tapes, and looking over the data, I'm just left unmoved…pretty unconcerned. Not all that interested.

There are 5–10+ running back prospects in any given draft who are like Alex Collins. Good/solid college running backs, working with a good-to-great college run game system. They are athletically, physically average (in NFL terms) RB prospects, but experienced with solid instincts and give a very good effort. I just described most every third-string running back in the NFL, as well as half the RBs on practice squads or trying to get on practice squads. Nothing wrong with being a 'useful' NFL running back, but you don't waste a high (or any) draft pick on it.

Basically, Alex Collins was blessed with what most Wisconsin running back prospects of the past decade have been – running the ball in the Brent Bielema system. I can't tell you how many times I saw Collins take handoffs with seven, kinda eight offensive linemen/blockers working with him. Arkansas would stack two tight ends on the end of the line, as well as have a big wide receiver right there with them, a step off the line. As the ball was handed off this stacked line basically had three extra run-game blockers working in favor of the running back. All Collins did, essentially, is run as hard as he could behind great blocking. Collins has NFL speed, mediocre as it is, and he gives a great effort…he may be labeled 'mediocre' for the NFL, but he's more high-end speed for college. What's mediocre in size and speed for the NFL is high-end, superior in college…especially nice attributes in a fortuitous run-game scheme.

Collins does not have breakaway speed (4.59), nor does he have tremendous agility…nor does he possess a major size advantage (5′10″/217). His athleticism overall is suspect – and you can tell that by his vertical and broad jump on top of everything else – the worst vertical of any RB prospect at the NFL Combine.

You also have the question of Collins's hands. I mean that foremost in a ball security sense. He has fumbled the ball 16 times in the past three seasons and lost 9 of them. He has smaller 9.25″ hands. Because he's not blazing fast or super elusive, and always running the up the middle normally, he leaves himself wide open to taking big hits – and Collins is not a huge running back, and he has those small hands. He’s somewhat at a disadvantage for ball security…and that was at the college level. What do you think will happen at the next level?

When I think of Collins, I always remember watching him against Toledo last season. The Rockets went to Arkansas and upset the Razorbacks. It wasn't a fluke. Toledo was all over the Arkansas offense. They were also all over Alex Collins. The Toledo defense manhandled Collins for the most part (20 carries for 54 yards)… so I'm supposed to believe this is one of the top running back prospects for the NFL? A guy who was handled by Toledo…who looks like an inferior player against a MAC conference defense? Every time I watch tape of Collins, I don't see him as the standout talent on the field…versus Toledo, or otherwise.

I've seen enough of Collins tape to know that he is not a future NFL star or starter of note. He's OK/fine/ solid enough, I guess. He can do well in a pinch at the next level, but I can guarantee you there's not a star in the making here. Just another useful guy, mediocre athlete who gives a good effort.

Alex Collins, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

36 career rushing TDs…25% of them (9) occurred in three games…versus Tennessee-Martin (5), Nicholls State (3), UAB (1).

Last season versus Alabama: 12 carries for 26 yards. 2014 vs. Alabama: 6 carries for 13 yards.

Of the RB prospects at the NFL Combine who were less than 220 pounds, Collins ran the third-slowest 40-time. He also had the worst vertical (28.5″) of any sized RB, and the fourth-worst broad jump among any Combine RB prospect.

He's not a special athlete in any way, shape, or form. He's a hard worker in a very good run-game scheme. 

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Alex Collins Most Compares Within Our System:

The Chris Polk comparison is a great one – successful, hard-working college runners who hang on in the NFL through their sheer effort and hard work. That's about the upside for Collins – trusted, journeyman running back.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2016 NFL Draft Outlook:

 I normally see Collins ranked right around the #5 spot among 2016 RB prospects, with a third-round or top 100 overall grade. I can't believe any team would waste a top 100 pick on a mediocre running back talent, but I'm sure that they will with Collins…the momentum is heading that way. I would guess Collins will go somewhere right around pick 100. I think Jordan Howard will be selected ahead of him after the Elliott-Henry run at the top. Collins will vie with Devontae Booker for the title of 4th RB off the board, I think. Kenneth Dixon will try to slip in there too.

If I were an NFL GM, I know Collins is going somewhere in that top 100 or so, which means I have no plans on drafting him. I like the effort Collins gives, and if I had an emergency and he was floating around as a free agent pickup years from now, I could give him a look to use in an absolute emergency – other than that I have no interest. I was not moved for one second watching him on tape.

NFL Outlook:   

I bet that Collins will hang in the NFL for several years as a journeyman. While he's not athletically gifted for the NFL level, for superior performance, he does give a good effort and has some natural instincts with which he could hold down the fort for a few moments as needed. Coaches will like his effort.

4/12/2016