NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Ty Montgomery is one of the more complex, challenging WRs I’ve scouted in 2015. I’m still not 100% sure to make of him.

At Stanford, in 2013, Montgomery was all-world: 10 receiving TDs (out of 61 catches)…2 rushing TDs…2 kick return TDs.

With the same coaches and QB, in 2014, Montgomery produced just 3 receiving TDs (out of 61 catches)…1 rushing TD…no kick return TDs, but did try his hand at punt returns for the first time, and scored 2 TDs.

In one moment, Montgomery looks like a master of the game compared to the ‘other’ college kids. The next moment, he looks like he is going half-speed and disinterested in what’s taking place…he looks ‘college good’, but not a great NFL prospect. He seemed to turn ‘it’ on and off in games at Stanford. In scouting Montgomery, one person could see lazy, and another person could see ‘smooth’ and under control. Both scouting 'visions' have a case. Like I said, he’s perplexing.

Watching the tape, I never see anything that screams out to me that Montgomery is a superstar in-waiting…but I can see he’s a really good college player. He did all the basics at WR: bubble screens, slants, and double moves deep. Montgomery wasn’t a master at getting open or carving up the defenders, but when they got the ball in his hands he was often bigger and better than the guys trying to stop him.

I must also note, Stanford QB Chris Hogan doesn’t do him any favors either. Anyone who rates Hogan highly as an NFL QB prospect needs to have their scouting head examined. Hogan is every smart, safe QB who game manages a stoic offense at a bigger-named school…the Aaron Murray, Kirk Cousins types. Hogan deals ‘one look’, or ‘no-look’ throws to where someone is supposed to be…and hopefully a defender isn’t in the way. It was hard to tell if Montgomery was frustrated with Hogan, or not, or just always looks and acts sour, or is just totally 'under control' on the field.

Further complicating this scouting evaluation, Montgomery mostly measured ‘average’ in the more critical NFL WR needs--average NFL speed (4.55 40-time). Average NFL agility (near 7.0 three cone with solid shuttle times). His best attributes are that he’s powerfully built (220+ pounds) and has a great vertical (40”+). He has pretty nice instincts as a runner with the ball, but it may be more ‘college great’, than NFL great.

Honestly, what I thought the whole time watching his tape: Is this the next, bigger, Randall Cobb? A guy with just decent measurables, but has that un-measurable ‘knack’ for the game as a runner, returner, etc. Randall Cobb on Jacksonville or Buffalo, etc. is never a discussion point today. Randall Cobb on Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers makes about $10M a year and is considered an NFL star -- so I believe it could be with Montgomery. There is something here, but he needs to fall in with the right group to exploit it…or otherwise he will look sluggish and disinterested on a bad, boring offense.

Montgomery is definitely worth a strong look in the NFL, because you don’t know if you have a star or just a ‘useful’ option on your hands.

Ty Montgomery, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

I’m really thrown by the past two seasons of output by Montgomery at Stanford. He caught 61 passes in each of his last two seasons, but all the other related numbers were way down his senior season—when you’d think they’d be up/the same with the QB, who was a year more experienced.

As a senior, he had a near 40% drop in yardage on the same amount of catches, and a 70% drop in receiving TDs.

Here’s a scary number trend, in his last 18 games against PAC-12/real teams (minus his games against Army and Cal-Davis), he had a monster output game against PAC-12 laughingstock Cal (2013): 5 catches for 160 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs. If you ignore that game, in his other 17 games against better competition, Montgomery has not registered with over 90 yards receiving, and has only posted two receiving TDs in those 17 contests. These are not the number trends of a ‘special’ WR at work.

The one saving grace you could give to Montgomery is that the Stanford QB is not very good and is not taking a WR to the ‘next level’…the QB/offense may have held-back Montgomery. However, in my notes for most of his games, Stanford's coaches did enough/a bunch to get Montgomery the ball that he should have had more ‘big games’…he didn’t.  

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Ty Montgomery Most Compares Within Our System:

A ‘poor man’s’ Rishard Matthews--makes a lot of sense here. Both are WRs who are around the six-foot mark but are built like power RBs who happen to have good-great hands. Both were top return men in the college game. Both need to work with a QB who can utilize the gift of hands and power they bring to the table.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC, and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Ty Montgomery was beloved after 2013, but confused analysts with his weak 2014…and so-so measurables at the NFL Combine. He was likely a 2nd-round WR after 2013, but 2014 revealed a 4th or 5th-rounder. So let’s split the difference and guess late 3rd or early 4th on draft day.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d have an interest in Ty Montgomery, especially as his price/draft stock fell, because he could be a top WR pull from this draft going off at a discounted draft price. If he falls to the 4th-round, then I start getting interested. I’m not moving heaven and earth to draft him because I could be just as happy pulling a DeAndre Carter or Damarr Aultman for a similar role…and I can get them as UDFAs.

NFL Outlook:   

It’s all about where Ty Montgomery lands in the NFL. If he falls in with Tennessee or Buffalo or Washington…he’s done. If he lands in Indy or Green Bay or Atlanta, then there is a nice upside hope in the NFL for him. He’s going to be useful, one way or the other, because of his return skills, but as far as a WR—could be a ‘C’…could be a ‘B+’. It all depends on the QB and opportunity.

8/15/2015