NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami, Fla

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Among the smaller, speedy WR-types in this draft class…like Phillip Dorsett, Tyler Lockett, Jamison Crowder, Justin Hardy, Rashad Greene, etc., we see NFL-merit in most all of them, but if you had to reach for one of them above the rest—Dorsett makes an intriguing, possibly ‘reaching’, way to go.

You could make arguments for the other guys, and I would not even try to passionately defend Dorsett as the best of the bunch. I just think in a sea of quality, smaller WRs hitting the market last year, this year, and in years to come, Dorsett’s speed-agility numbers are so tantalizing that you have to think long and hard about him as the one smaller, speedy WR prospect to have from the draft class.

He’s not the most polished of the group—that’s more Tyler Lockett or Justin Hardy. He’s probably the least statistically accomplished of the group I just listed as well. What he does bring better than all the other guys is speed…high-end, blazing speed.

Dorsett is a raw WR heading to the NFL, and that’s going to hurt his draft stock somewhat. When you watch Dorsett on tape, there’s a little more Devin Smith than Tyler Lockett…meaning, just a guy going deep, and making some big plays. Some will see the tape, the numbers (just 2.8 catches per game last year), and the fast 40-time (4.33), and just chalk him up as a more empty, ‘speed-hype’ WR…a workout warrior who is conning draft analysts. I’m not ruling out that possibility. I just think there are a couple of things to consider before locking him into that mindset…

1) Dorsett is a tough, aggressive WR. All these higher ranked, smaller, speedy WRs are gifted with hands and quicks, but most of them play a finesse game…a game that doesn’t exist as much in the NFL. We’re attracted to these types of WRs because of their big plays in college, which we should be. One thing I noticed with Dorsett—he’s aggressive, physical. He willingly takes on blockers in the run game. Of those top 5’8-5’9 tall WRs, he has more of a thicker RB frame than a slender WRs build. He has a little more NFL body to offer than most accomplished, smaller WR prospects in this draft. Most ‘track guys’, like a Devin Smith, are almost too finesse at WR, but Dorsett surprised me by breaking that mold watching him play without the ball.

2) I say Dorsett is ‘raw’, but perhaps I could say, “under-utilized” or “untapped.” Watching the tape of the various smaller, speedy WRs, you could see a big effort by the team/QB to work a Lockett or Hardy or Crowder as the clear #1 option in the passing game. Dorsett was not afforded that same luxury.

There is a 'negative' to consider off that last statement: The reason why statement #2 exists is the same reason why you cannot fully endorse Phillip Dorsett as a ‘sure thing’ for the NFL. Dorsett struggled with ‘drops’, especially early on in his college career. Miami’s semi-denial of throwing a heavier amount of simple, easy set up passes (bubble screens, etc.) to him might have been by choice of the coaching staff and conscious (or subconscious) decisions by the QBs. It is a very real fear to see Dorsett as ‘great speed, physically tough, shaky hands’ WR prospect.

In his 2014 tape, I didn’t feel Dorsett was hacking up a lot of targets his way, but he also wasn’t targeted as much as you’d like to see either...nor with as high a degree of catch/route difficulty.

Dorsett would take some work getting 'up to snuff' in the NFL. I don’t see an advanced route runner entering the league. There are half-a-dozen top WR prospects who are small, fast, and polished…but they don’t nearly possess the speed-agility Dorsett does. If you can develop Dorsett, you’ll have a major weapon.

However, history says, “It’s hard to ‘make’ a WR.”

In the end, Dorsett is more a ‘boom-bust’ draft play than anything. The question then becomes, for NFL teams, “What price should you pay to play this Dorsett-game?”

Phillip Dorsett, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

It has to scare you that Dorsett hasn’t registered six or more catches in a game since 2012…20 games ago. His Miami teams the past two seasons were fairly plausible passing teams. By contrast, Tyler Lockett had only two of 13 games in 2014 where he didn’t grab six or more catches in the game—and the two times he didn’t hit that mark were blowout wins against inferior competition, where Lockett yucked it up for parts of the game on the sidelines.

When you see a trend, a ‘tell’ like that (above), you wince at the lack of productivity. But then there is this stat that will perk you back up on the ‘possibilities’…

There were 11 games (of 41 career games) in Dorsett’s career where he caught four or more passes in the game. His numbers per game in those eleven contests: 6.0 catches for 111.5 yards and 0.90 TDs per game. Translate that to a 13-game season: 78 catches, 1,450 yards and 12 TDs, When he was getting the ball more, big things tended to happen. Six of those 11 games, Dorsett went for 100+ yards in a game…and dropped 180+ yards in three of those contests.

There is a Jekyll-Hyde thing with Dorsett looking through his numbers and tape. At times, you are dropped-jaw…other times you are asking, “Where is Dorsett?” Is it Dorsett’s fault…or Miami’s? I see it as Miami’s issue, but we don’t know if it was ignorance or specific avoidance for good reason.

The reason you get the ‘big’ output games from Dorsett is because of his amazing speed: His 4.33 40-time was one of the best at the 2015 NFL Combine. He allegedly owns the fastest 40-time ever clocked at ‘the U’. His agility times at the Combine were great. He measured well across the board…there are no critical physical flaws here.

It all comes down to: How much are you willing to spend on his speed with the risk of his ‘hands’ being an issue, and wondering whether he has the work ethic to become a starring NFL WR?

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Phillip Dorsett Most Compares Within Our System:

Our system’s comparison list isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Dorsett’s future. Devin Hester has made a career with his feet in the return game but has been dicey as a WR. Dorsett has returned some kicks but has shown nothing like the skills of Hester.

The list says, “Dorsett is more of a ‘hands’ concern than not.” The list also reminds us 4.3+ speed is everywhere. It's not a ‘Bigfoot’ event and doesn’t necessarily mean gold in the NFL.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC, and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Dorsett is tracking somewhere between a mid-to-late 2nd-rounder and a 3rd-round prospect for most analysts. The 3rd-round probably makes more sense but given how the NFL falls in love with ‘fast’...you cannot rule out Dorsett ultimately taken in the late 2nd-round--if a draft run on WRs occurs ahead of that. I’m going to predict he’s early 3rd-round, somewhere around #70 overall.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d love to have his raw speed to work with. However, I’m not paying up for it. If he were to fall into the 4th-round, then I might have an interest, but in the top-75, I just cannot see it with ‘solid’ not special college career…and the plethora of small, speedy WRs roaming the earth--many as free agents or on practice squads.

NFL Outlook:   

Dorsett’s fate lies in how much his NFL team is willing to work with him. If they play to his skills and work him on bubble screens and deep-balls, as a 3rd or heavier rotation 4th WR…he’ll have a nice start to his career. If he goes to a team with an old-school thought process, and they get all pissy about his lack of full WR understanding day-one, then he might get buried as a special teams and occasional 4th or 5th WR option. In the end, he’s probably a poor man’s Tavon Austin at best. Worst case, he gets lost in the shuffle and is forgotten within 3-4 years.

3/3/2015