NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Honestly, I’m not really sure what to do with Dorial Green-Beckham from a scouting perspective. I see physical tools on tape (who doesn’t?), but then I see the NFL Combine results that show him to be a little bit more ‘mortal’…and that concerns me--more than just the measurables themselves (more on that in a moment).

Green-Beckham has all the Josh Gordon parallels you want: super-gifted, but super-troubled.

Green-Beckham has all the things scout crave: a physically dominating athlete with a nice highlight reel.

DGB is so ‘legendary’ that it makes fans and analysts look past all the question marks. By and large, Green-Beckham was a promising, but erratic WR in his two seasons at Missouri. His struggles are understandable for a young, raw WR in the SEC, but we do have to note—he did not destroy the SEC. He just destroyed Kentucky in 2013 (4 TDs in one game)…and had a lot of up and down moments outside of that.

We know he struggled a bit in his only two seasons (understandably), but we don’t know how 'good' he would have become had he played a third full season. He played his two seasons for Missouri, and then got booted off the team for multiple marijuana/drug-related issues.

In 2012, as a freshman, Green-Beckham (and others in the car) was arrested with a small amount of weed in his car...and the charges were reduced. Two years later, in January 2014, he was arrested for possession and intent to distribute, and that was knocked down as well. Three months later, he was involved in a reported incident of breaking down a door and throwing a female student down flights of stairs. The alleged victim did not press any charges, so no major court event…but DGB was officially dismissed from the team after that third, more damning strike.

The former all-everything high school WR (the top WR prospect in the nation coming out of high school) and track star was gone from the Missouri program, and trying to find a school who would take him. He wound up at Oklahoma, but never played a game there.

We really don’t know what Green-Beckham could have been had he been given two more years of play. So we’re all left to hyperventilate over his size, draw loose comparisons to Calvin Johnson, and throw darts trying to predict ‘how good he might be’.

Let’s focus on what we do know about Dorial Green-Beckham, and I think my following argument is everything to consider with him—the upside and downside. Everything present, and hidden, with DGB is involved in the following statement I see attached to him since the NFL Combine: “He didn’t measure near as well as Calvin Johnson at the Combine.”

Our eyeballs play strange and wonderful tricks on us. Many analysts painted DGB with the ‘Calvin’ brush watching his tape from two years ago, and now they have a little egg on their face post-Combine. Green-Beckham did fine, physically, at the NFL Combine…but he wasn’t off-the-charts…he wasn’t the ‘next Calvin Johnson’ they had hoped for.

Green-Beckham posted a very unimpressive 33” vertical at the Combine.

His 40-time of 4.49 was fine, but his 1.61 10-yard split is shaky…not Calvin-like.

His bench press of 13 reps was pathetic…given his size, and time to prepare.

His agility times were fine…but not the next Calvin or Julio.

He has smaller 9” hands.

His 6’5”, 237-pound measurements were about the most impressive measurables to consider.

The ‘good’ to ‘average’ physical attributes at the Combine left DGB ‘lovers’ flat and disappointed. Anti-DGB’ers were more emboldened with the Combine letdown. What should we think of this? There are three interpretations to make, and two of them are very positive…and one of the positives (I think) is pretty original. Let’s start with the ’as is’ interpretation, then the ‘bad, and lastly the magical land of ‘what might be’.

‘AS-IS’ DGB: Those who take his Combine results straight up can whine that DGB’s Combine results do not reveal the next-Calvin or next-Julio, but what the numbers show is pretty damn good for a 235+ pound human being. If he were a Defensive End at 6’5”+ who ran 4.4s in the 40-yard with higher-end agility (for his size)…people would be going insane. For a WR, it’s pretty standard fare to run a near 4.50. It’s NFL-worthy. However, you have to consider his size in all this—he ran a 4.49 with nice agility at 237-pounds. Good luck to the DBs contending with a 6’5”/235 guy who runs in the 4.4s.

Green-Beckham’s Combine results, and prior flashes on tape backup anyone who thinks there is something more with this troubled, raw piece of WR clay. This is a 1st-round body and athleticism, despite not being ‘Calvin-esque’.

‘BAD’ DGB: You know what the first thing these Combine results said to me, because I am a little anti-DGB (because of Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, et al): I knew it…Lazy Dorial Green-Beckham.

He had all this time to prepare for this moment, and all he produced was 13 bench press reps…are you kidding me? Plus, nice job staying in shape. Why are you 237-pounds? You’ve been a 220-pound athlete prior. This cannot help your speed times or vertical measurements. Are you wanting to move to TE? How are you not in peak condition to run fast at the NFL Combine?

I think this extra weight and letdown performance at the Combine are beyond poor-planning and decision-making for a guy with the knock of poor decision-making as a way of life. He had all this time to prepare for this one thing…and he blew it. It is a major ‘tell’…or reinforcement of what he’s already shown us. He’s shown us he’s a lackluster, problem-child off the field.

‘WHAT COULD BE’ DGB: What if Green-Beckham slimmed down to 225 of muscle, instead of his 237-pounds of not lifting weights, apparently? Would he have run a 4.39 instead of the 4.49? Would his vertical rise to 36”+? Would his 10-yard split be more impressive? Did he even really train for this?

Had he gotten in exquisite physical shape, he might have been a jaw-dropper at the Combine. He may have pushed Kevin White’s physical win at the NFL Combine. DGB might be in everyone’s 1st-round on Mock Draft now…instead of falling out of it. To me, he blew the Combine. However, you have to consider, there might be gold hiding in these hills…if anyone can get to it. You can fix/enhance his speed and strength considering he’s carrying extra pounds (to me).

Green-Backham at his physical peak might have blown us all away.

You have to side with one of these three ‘DGBs’…which one is it?

I think our computer scouting models have an interesting answer/parallel to consider coming up (below)…

Dorial Green-Beckham, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

Green-Beckham basically logged about two seasons of play in college football (24 games). For every game log you see him with a TD registered, you can also find a dud…like his one catch for six-yards against South Carolina in 2013. If you love DGB, you point to the Kentucky game where he scored 4 TDs against the Wildcats in 2013. His critics would point out that he was held to 35 yards or less in over half is SEC games as a Sophomore (less than 35 yards in five out of 9 SEC games), as well as his Freshman campaign (less than 35 yards in three out of 5 SEC games).

Some ‘fuzzy math’ numbers, that I’d like to present: When you consider that Green-Beckham is a raw, talented WR, you would expect him to come into SEC as a true freshman and have ups and downs. You expect to see statistical growth as a Sophomore, which we did--albeit a bit choppy.

You would then hope to see him go to a next-level as a Junior, but we’ve all been robbed of seeing whether or not that would have happened. The closest thing we can patch together is looking at the tail end of DGB’s final college season. His final six-games might have started showing us a turn, an increase in output while facing difficult opponents (including a bowl game).

What if Dorial Green-Beckham was starting to blossom down the stretch of his Sophomore year, which might have led to a monster Junior campaign? In the final six-games in 2013, DGB averaged: 4.7 catches for 71.0 yards and 1.3 TDs per game. These per game numbers extrapolated into a 13-game season: 61 catches for 923 yards and 17 TDs…those TD numbers would send shock waves through the SEC and on his subsequent declaration for the NFL Draft after three seasons in college. It’s a small sample, but we don’t have a ton to go on.

We’ll never know if he was headed to the massive output as a Junior or not, but if you believe that DGB would have improved vastly with another year, and that the tail end of his 2nd-season was showing it—then you have to project him even higher for the 2015 NFL Draft. DGB’s output trend late in his final college season may have been telling us that something was developing toward that higher-level.

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Dorial Green-Beckham Most Compares Within Our System:

USC WR Mike Williams is the epitome of the Dorial Green-Beckham story. Williams was a physically massive WR who tore up college football, and became a #10 overall pick to the Detroit Lions. As a Sophomore (his final college season as well), Williams caught 95 passes for 1,314 yards, and 16 TDs…which puts DGB’s Sophomore campaign to shame.

Williams was instantly lost in the NFL, and floundered…in part due to packing on the pounds. He essentially ate himself out of football (among other issues)…he did not have the work ethic. A star in the making…all wiped away. Five years later, Williams cut the weight, worked hard, got a chance with Seattle and played so well he landed a sizeable contract…and fell off the map right after.

Dorial Beckham-Green has all the talent in the world too. He also came into the Combine with a little extra weight and/or did not work hard to prepare—a possible sign that he is not going to take this opportunity seriously, just like “Big Mike Williams.”

I remember watching Williams during his comeback with Seattle—he was ultra-physical, and near-spectacular at times. I was blown away…and then ‘poof’, nothing. His comeback was done as quickly as he got up off the mat.

What will you get in the NFL with Green-Beckham? I really don’t know.

If we had computer numbers on a slimmed down, no issues, extra year of experience DGB…he might be ‘superstar’ of a gigantic magnitude in our system. I could go the other way, and slice his prospectus to the bone for being too raw and too problematic…regardless of his output. Which leads us to our Computer’s current grade: In the 8s. Not because the computer thinks he is an ‘8’, but it doesn’t know what else to do. It has some 10-11-12 grade characteristics and 4-5-6 ones as well…it’s a mess.

He might be great…he might be a colossal bust. How’s that for definitive? Actually, I’ll give you my final instincts at the very end (below).

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

This feels like a situation where a loaded roster/Super Bowl contender team, who is picking late in the 1st-round, just takes a flyer here…because they can.

If the Jets take him at #6, and he flops…it will be mocked for years. If Seattle takes him at #31, it’s Pete Carroll doing that thing Pete Carroll does—like he did with Big Mike Williams. The ‘master motivator’ trying to get through to the troubled weapon. If DGB flops on Seattle…it will be DGB’s fault. If he flops on the Jets, it’s the stupid ‘Jets being Jets’ fault. This pick has to be made by a secure team/coach who takes the chance. I can see Dallas and Seattle making a move here…and maybe Seattle trying to cut in front of Dallas to do it. I think he’ll be selected between #20-25 overall.

Rare times do you get a crack at special…sometimes you have to spend some credibility chips to take a chance. I think DGB is the kind of prospect that teams will take that chance on.

If you see Green-Beckham falling into the 2nd-round, it probably means some other bad news is lurking out there.

If I were an NFL GM, I wouldn’t take Green-Beckham early in the 1st-round, but I’d be squirming in the later 1st-round if he was available coming up to my pick. My inclination is that WRs don’t win titles, QBs do…and there are plenty of neat WRs to be had…ones I don’t have to worry about getting suspended every other week. If DGB somehow fell into the 2nd-round, I’m not sure how you pass up a cheap look…unless there was another incident.

NFL Outlook:   

If I had to bet, I see Green-Beckham coming in as a rookie, and struggling with the transition, and used mostly as a red-zone weapon…and maybe scores a bunch of TDs, without much else on the stat sheet. The snippet of success gets people excited for the future, but the one constant we know of DGB takes over…he falls down the Josh Gordon-Justin Blackmon hole, and leaves everyone saying, “See, I told ya’ so.”

I hope this is not the case, but rare is the human that has a pattern of bad behavior from a tough upbringing and gets more fame and fortune…and then suddenly becomes a choir boy. I hope I am wrong, but if we had to set Vegas odds…you’d have to bet against him with a gun to your head.

NFL teams in the right scenario should still take a chance, if they can afford the downside hit.

3/15/2015