NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: RB Mike Davis, South Carolina

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

On tape, I really like/love Mike Davis as a RB prospect for the NFL. Watching his tape pre-Combine, I thought Davis would be a top-3 RB prospect for the 2015 NFL Draft. Now, I’m not so sure…now that we’ve seen the NFL Combine results.

It’s not that Davis was ‘bad’ at the NFL Combine. He just didn’t ‘jump off the page; like I had hoped. He kinda waffles in that ‘could be a B+ but could be a C+’ prospect range. I previously thought he was a for sure ‘B’ grade with a chance to be an ‘A’. I think ‘A’ output in the NFL with him as a long-shot, but possible.

What is so great about Mike Davis is that he is a classic power runner—he has a bigger upper body, and does great work ramming off-tackle or up the middle. His feet are quick enough for him to make subtle cuts in a crowd, in order to find an extra 1-2-3+ yards. I can also say that about several RB prospects, but where Davis rises above most of them is that he has sensational hands in the passing game…I mean really good.

His visual, his physical profile screams “Mark Ingram or Alfred Morris,” all are top-heavy guys who are solid in speed, swift in cutbacks, have nice power and can wear you out off-tackle. However, Ingram and Morris can barely catch the ball unless it is placed to them perfectly without distraction. They have to stop their movement and snatch passes…Davis catches balls in full stride and breaking down field without a hitch like Matt Forte. Davis is effortless in the short passing game. When you get a 217-pound RB with a big upper body who can catch swing/screen pass without breaking stride, and immediately gains steam moving downfield against smaller DBs—it’s a weapon.

In a nutshell, I would say Davis runs like Stevan Ridley, but can catch a little like Shane Vereen. There is value in that in the NFL. Davis may not be a breakaway or fancy runner like a Le’Veon Bell or Matt Forte, but he’s solid…and with hands and movement in the passing game like them. I fear NFL coaching staffs will pigeon-hole Davis as a power-runner only, but he has so much more to give.

There are negatives to discuss as well…

Davis is a high-energy runner, but I’m not sure how motivated he is in the other parts of the game. He is a flimsy, disinterested pass blocker (which can be fixed). He had a small issue with fumbles through his college career. His body wore down with nagging injuries at the end of 2014, and his NFL Combine numbers did not suggest he was always ‘busting it’ in the weight room. I question how hard Davis prepped for the Combine—which is an off-field, psychological-read issue.

Davis is a ‘good’ prospect, with a chance to be ‘very good’ with more work put into round out his game…or he could get run over in the NFL by not putting in the work to his frame or non-with the ball-related skills. He’s a bit of a gamble, and not a sure thing—but the un-coachable talents (hands, instincts) are there. Everything else is fixable…but needs fixing.

Mike Davis, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

Mike Davis has bad ‘splits’ after seven games played the past two season:

2013:

18.9 carries, 125.6 rushing yards, 6.7 ypc, 1.4 TDs per game = Davis in first seven games of the season

14.2 carries,   60.8 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 0.2 TDs per game = Davis final five games (after seven games booked)

2014:

17.3 carries, 94.6 rushing yards, 5.5 ypc, 1.1 TDs per game = Davis in first seven games of the season

13.0 carries, 53.3 rushing yards, 4.1 ypc, 0.2 TDs per game = Davis final six games (after seven games booked)

Keep in mind as well—the schedule got more difficult as the season wore on, so Davis may be a bit of a hoax that he fades against better opposition. It’s not a reach to think he might be just a ‘good’ college runner, but not a next-level guy.

I look at the output drop-offs as the season wears on, and I see his moderate speed-strength numbers from the Combine, and I worry he really is not a putting enough time into his body to endure full seasons at a high-level. If that’s even a bit true, he is really in trouble at the next-level.

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Mike Davis Most Compares Within Our System:

You may not be as impressed, but I think Rex Burkhead is a really solid RB prospect—a tough runner with terrific hands…just like Mike Davis. If Davis gave 150% like Joique Bell, he could find himself an NFL starter like Bell someday too. The potential is there with Davis, but as you can see from this list—superstardom is not likely in the cards.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2016. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Mike Davis is currently the 11th-ranked RB prospect for the 2015 NFL Draft by both CBS and ESPN—with 4th/5th-round grades. That’s probably the right range from him on draft day. If you see him go 4th-round, I’d be pleasantly surprised. If you see him go 6th-round…it likely means that he butchered his personal interview and background check—and the ‘not hard-working’ label has stuck.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d rather have a 5th-round+ Mike Davis then most RBs in the higher-pick RBs in this draft. With work, Davis could be a top-5 RB in this class, at a bargain draft price. As he is, with flaws, I like him better than most for the NFL game. The more a draft bargain he becomes, the more I’m ‘in’.

NFL Outlook:   

So much will ride on what team Davis falls in with. He will be drafted later, so NFL teams have no pressure to push him. He likely makes a roster and is buried as a 3rd/4th RB for a few years unless injury forces a quick chance—and that happens a lot. I could see Davis buried and forgotten, but then two injuries hit, and Davis is rushed into the lineup and gains 1,000+ yards in a season on the ground and 1,500+ total. He has Alfred Morris potential—snuck into the starting job, and never looked back.

He’s not a sure thing, but he’s a ‘thing’ to watch.

3/18/2015