NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: OLB Shaq Thompson, Washington

*Our LB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

Shaq Thompson is my favorite ‘pure’ football player in the 2015 NFL Draft. I realize he is not the best ‘on paper’ player/prospect in this draft, and there are some translation-to-the-NFL issues to discuss, but as far as just great, instinctive football players go…Shaq Thompson blows me away.

Thompson is one of those guys whom the measurables are overrated on. His speed-agility says he's a B-/C+ type of prospect, but his play on tape shows a possible ‘A’ talent. In addition to his stellar play, you have a variety of ways in which to use Shaq. He has the heart of a middle linebacker but is more of an Outside Linebacker or Strong Safety. He was also an amazing RB for a few weeks for Washington this past season.

No matter what Thompson does…he does it sensationally.

He just doesn’t cause or recover fumbles--he does so…and then takes them back for TDs (3 fumbles returned for TD in 2014). He doesn’t just cover receivers tightly--he picks off passes…and runs them back for TDs (5 career picks and 2 return TDs). He doesn’t just fill in at RB in a pinch--he rushes for 98+ yards in three mid-season appearances…averaging 124.0 rushing yards per game. He just doesn’t make tackles--he tries to annihilate people. He is arguably the best ‘football player’ in this draft.

His measurables do not foretell a future superstar. He was a disappointment, to a degree, at the NFL Combine. He ran in the 4.7s and turned everyone off a little. However, the machines were wrong initially, and Thompson had his 40-time officially upgraded to a more logical, solid-not-special 4.64 after the NFL Combine, but the PR damage was done, and Shaq really hasn’t recovered. He plays like an ‘A’, but tested with ‘B’ measurables (had nice agility times and was solid overall)…only people perceive them as ‘C’ grade because of the 40-time…and it’s hurting his mock draft value. I suspect 'smart' NFL teams aren’t fooled by this.

Thompson will either be an Outisde Linebacker or a Strong Safety in the NFL. He’ll succeed at either, but OLB might be the better fit. He played more Middle Linebacker/Rover at Washington when on defense…and he just played/looked like a middle linebacker…in an Outside Linebacker/Safety’s body. He can tackle with the best of them. He can cover TEs and slower WRs and snuff out screen passes on RBs. He’ll be a fine Linebacker or Safety in the pros with the upside that he might be ‘one of those guys’ that’s just so instinctual, so natural that he can’t help but to become a star.

Shaq Thompson, Through the Lens of Our OLB Scouting Algorithm:

It’s quite complicated to do a lot of statistical comparisons and evaluations with Shaq Thompson versus the other 2015 OLB prospects, or historical OLBs…because not many of them were college OLBs who played some roving ILB, who also jumped in and became an offensive force at RB…and converted five turnovers into defensive TDs…and were also professional baseball draft picks/players (Shaq had a stint in the minor leagues for part of one season).

I will say Thompson showed terrific consistency in his three years at Washington. He walked in as a freshman and played right away and had five or more tackles in a game in 29 of his 37 career games where he played more defense than offense in the contest.

In three career bowl appearances, Thompson averaged 9.3 tackles per game.

Thompson’s average per carry as a RB: a fantastic 7.5 ypc.

Thompson grabbed nine turnovers in his career (5 INT, 4 fumble recovery), and converted five of the nine turnovers for TDs.

His average return on his fumble recoveries: 51.2 yards

His average return of his five career INTs: 30.4 yards

His defensive TD return distance (fumble or INT): 60.0 yards

His average rushing TD distance as a RB: 40.5 yards

There’s just something about Shaq Thompson that is almost impossible to find with the typical scouting data. He’s either really special…or really, really lucky.

The Historical OLB Prospects to Whom Shaq Thompson Most Compares Within Our System:

Shaq Thompson as a more responsible Daryl Washington would not be a bad thing…a very productive linebacker in the NFL. Same thing if he is a ‘next Sean Weatherspoon’. These are guys who are not household names, but they are really well-respected NFL players…and that’s probably Shaq Thompson, in a nutshell, for the future.  

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of LBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite LB.

All of the LB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Tackle-Strength Metrics = A combination of several physical and performance measurements. An attempt to classify the LB prospect's ability to stop the run, as well as a gauge of how physical the player is and the likelihood of higher tackle counts in the NFL. All based on profiles of LBs historically.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, and size measurements...as well as game performance data to profile a LB for speed/agility based on LBs historically. A unique measuring system to look for LBs that profile for quickness, pass-coverage ability, and general ability to cover more ground.

Pass Rush Metrics = A combination of the physical measurements, but also proven on-field ability to get to the QB/backfield in college.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Shaq Thompson has fallen out of the 1st-round in most mock drafts in March/April 2015, to almost always shown in the 2nd-round now. I’d play the odds and bet he’ll be early 2nd-round on draft day, but I have a sneaky suspicion some smart team will dive into the late first and snatch him up…that they too will fall in love with Shaq on tape.

If I were an NFL GM, it’s a tough call. I really love Shaq Thompson, and want him on my team, but the data just doesn’t scream assured star like it did for OLB/ILB/SS prospect Ryan Shazier last year. I would have paid any price for Shazier, but for Shaq I’m a little more cautious. He’d likely one I would watch to see how much he slid into the #30-45 overall area, and maybe jump in after him depending on my other options.

NFL Outlook:   

I bet Shaq Thompson steps in for his new team and just forces his way into playing time, and is always around the action/turnovers, and becomes a cult fan favorite. I really hope he winds up on a team that can appreciate him and allows him to roam/do his thing. He could be something in Baltimore or Seattle or New England, etc. He could die in Oakland or Jacksonville.  

2/26/2015