I wouldn’t put any stock in this “blowout.” The Chargers only played their starters for a single series each (the offensive series was just a three and out), while the 49ers got an extended series with the offensive starters and left many of the defenders in for another series to get some reps. Neither starting unit did much of note.
The first half scoring looked worse than it was primarily because of a return TD by Jacob Cowing. The blowout portion occurred with all the 3rd stringers in the second half and has no real bearing on either team.
The big picture notes I have mostly concern the Chargers.
Their new offensive scheme with Mike McDaniel in charge looks as creative as we expect. There are going to be some fireworks at times this year. However, I have to caution that there were a lot of procedural penalties here, albeit mostly with the backups, false starts, holds, motion penalties…I wouldn’t be surprised if some of that carried over into the regular season.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see some inconsistency from this Chargers offense. They will have moments where everything is clicking and they are very explosive with all this skill position talent, but I also see some signs warning that it might not always be smooth sailing from the jump. They are learning a complex new offense after all. We could see improvement from the unit as a whole but they may not live up to the hype this first year, particularly against better defense. That would jibe with how the Dolphins operated in their first year with McDaniel.
Another carryover from McDaniel’s Dolphins might be struggles in short yardage situations. Losing Tyler Biadasz was a big blow to the interior of the line. The two tackles are going to be great on the edges, but I expect interior pressure and some struggles on short yardage runs up the middle, although having a bigger bodied RB in Omarion Hampton could help that a little. The guards are…still not good, particularly Cole Strange who simply looks way out of his depth.
Player Notes...
Onto the players, and we’ll start with the single greatest player in the NFL today…De’Zhaun Stribling.
I don’t get it. I cannot for the life of me understand why this guy is getting this level of hype and excitement. Why him? What is the mechanism?
I am not at all saying he’s a terrible player. He’s fine. He’ll be ok, more good than bad in the grand scheme of things. But there is not one single aspect of his situation that is warranting this level of attention.
He was a bad prospect coming out of college given his draft slot. He’s got good size, straight line speed, solid hands, but he’s not a great route runner, he’s not elusive, and he creates very little separation. He’s solidly running with the backups, and all of his “production” is very simple routes, most of them highly contested in the preseason. We’ve seen this same song and dance before from several other highly drafted receivers, including almost the exact same thing from the guy I comped him to all along, Terrace Marshall who went 9-181-1 in three preseason games his rookie season.
His receptions here were a curl route where he got no separation, an out route from the slot where the safety was playing 15 yards off him and he didn’t even run the route well, his best play a simple slant route against a backup corner where he caught the ball and immediately fell to the ground, and a route over the middle that Mac Jones threaded through triple coverage. The last one was an amazing play by Mac, nothing Stribling did well other than catch the perfectly placed ball and then get tackled easily by a backup safety.
These are not the types of things that translate particularly well, not for a star receiver. Frankly, you can barely tell the difference between Stribling and Jauan Jennings. Last I checked Jennings was ok but wasn’t exactly considered a particularly great player.
When the season starts he’ll be on the field a bit, but he’s going to be rotating in behind the starting three of Evans, Deebo, and Demarcus Robinson. You are absolutely dreaming if you think he’s playing heavy snaps early on and producing big fantasy numbers.
I cannot stress this enough, this is the highest Stribling’s stock is ever going to be, and if you have him you are best off selling him for a mint to the highest bidder. Don’t sell just to sell but make sure you get paid handsomely for him because he is the single hottest player in all of football right now and the masses are desperately clinging to a mad prayer with this one.
KhaDarel Hodge caught the exact same 4-46-0 line that Stribling did, and I haven’t even seen his name mentioned once…
-- Other players of note, Kaelon Black is taking advantage of Jordan James being out with an injury. He ran tough and blocked pretty well here. I’m not ready to declare him the guaranteed backup to CMC like the rest of the reactionary media, but he’s performing well.
-- Mac Jones was inconsistent here and threw a handful of complete airmails, but he also had some impressive throws mixed in. He’s not terribly far off of, say, Sam Darnold right now. Borderline starting caliber QB.
-- On the Chargers side I am back on the Keaton Mitchell train. Why? Because he’s playing well ahead of Kimani Vidal in the rotation and McDaniel is using him intentionally in the passing game in space on screens and wheel routes down the field.
He really is going to get the rookie year De’Von Achane treatment. That does not mean he’s going to produce like Achane because he isn’t as good as Achane, but it does mean he’s going to at least be occasionally useful because passing game work plus explosive plays is a recipe for fantasy goodness. At RB50 with an ADP in the 160s he’s essentially free and a much, much better click than almost any other late round RB.
The Charger RB pecking order is clear however. Omarion Hampton is the starter and will handle the largest share of the touches including goalline work. I imagine it will be similar to last year with the hope of increased efficiency and scoring opportunities. Mitchell will get a decent number of touches per game and you hope he breaks off a big play. Vidal is depth and a handcuff only.
-- The other player of note is Oronde Gadsden who continues to look very good as a receiver, but he’s totally buried on this team because McDaniel doesn’t really care about that. He wants blocking TEs primarily and those duties are going to be handled by Charlie Kolar and secondarily David Njoku.
Even though Kolar is the de facto starter, I’m still not interested in him for fantasy really because this offense doesn’t run through TE production. Maybe someday Gadsden can continue building up his body and his blocking ability enough to get on the field…or maybe McDaniel moves on and a new coach cares about such things.
-- While Trey Lance has not really developed much and still looks far away from being a real NFL starter, he would be intriguing for fantasy if pressed into duty because of his running ability. He flashed some dangerous speed here, something we haven’t seen much of from him in a while.
===========================
