*(same intro every day) Right before the new preseason starts, I like to go back and re-read our Week 1 reports from the prior season...just for fun and for seeing what our first reactions to the new season were--what did we see that we would soon regret, what was revealed that we were wrong about all preseason (last preseason), and where we were on the money for the season about to unfold...were we more right than wrong about the first reactions to 2025 going into it.
So, I'm going to post one a day for 16 days leading right up to the 2026 HOF game that kicks off the preseason. I'm not adding any notes or trying to explain or make excuses or let you know we figured it out the next week. It's just here to read...open source, not behind the paywall. Judge it how you like to judge it if you're a nonsubscriber--I'm not going to try to whitewash anything or give extra explanations. This just some reading material from what is the single most important thing we do each year--watch and scout the games each week and report out our findings and make FF reactions to them. Every week, it's a new week to make adjustments to. This is just every team's Week 1 as we wrote it. Enjoy...or don't.
What I like is some of the memories of Week 1 that comes rushing back when I'm reading these a year later...on top of seeing what we were seeing right off the bat.
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You have to believe me here with this scouting... What I’m about to say will affect bettors and FF owners alike...and will help put this whole game review into a better context.
Here goes: The Atlanta Falcons are one of the best 10-15 teams in the NFL, right now. They should’ve won this game. This is the best defense the Falcons have put on the field in all my memories of them in the past 10+ years. And Michael Penix is the real deal.
Got it?
Good.
That’s a lot to take in because no one I see in the mainstream has ‘seen’ this divine revelation.
The fact that Tampa won this game shows how good they are as well. And they were lucky to win it on several levels...including a Koo missed FG late that would’ve sent the game to OT. TB needed to grind and press to win this game...the Falcons were the aggressors and better executing team overall, but credit Tampa for fighting with them.
The Falcons performance here is going right under the national radar, but not mine. One of the most impressive things/teams I saw Week 1...the Atlanta Falcons...all of them, both units. Not too far behind...the way Tampa grinded to stay in/win this game.
A ton of big player statements to make in this one, so buckle up.
Player Notes...
-- People are all excited about the J.J. McCarthy event from MNF...and are crowing that JJM is not only better than Caleb Williams from the 2024 NFL Draft, but he’s also better than Bo Nix...and it’s a given for people that JJM is better than Drake Maye. I know this: Who JJM is not better than -- Michael Penix (27-42 for 298 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 6-21-1).
Michael Penix is the real deal. He’s a Gatlin gun for football purposes wrapped in human flesh.
Incredible arm and uber-quick release and decision making. Penix showed accuracy and vision all game. He can run a little bit, an underrated runner. And he doesn’t need to be micromanaged with a special game plan and wrapped in a protective Kevin O’Connell blankie...Penix is microwave popcorn...he’s ready to go...he’s like an old baseball player analogy -- he’s like HOF hitter Manny Ramirez...if you remember him. Just ‘naturals’ without a conscience...not scared of anything, not deterred by an interception or drop or momentary failure of any kind, they’ll just go out there the next play, the next pitch and ‘get ‘em’.
The Falcons have one of the ten best QB talents in the NFL playing QB for them right now. And those of us that drafted Penix late in a redraft, to be our #2 QB/insurance policy...you done good. And the FF world still isn’t in on this like they should. I see Penix still on various league’s waiver wires.
And no disrespect to JJM, who is also good...but Penix is better/more naturally talented right now. It’s not even close who you want for FF at the moment/2025.
-- If Penix is the real deal, then Drake London (8-55-0/15) is a top 5 FF WR this season. He had a TD catch knocked away/rejected by the refs in this game or he would’ve had the big time FF scoring effort, rather than a ‘good’ one. London is for sure Penix’s #1 look.
With London not ‘blowing up’ Week 1 and then getting hurt late and may miss or be hindered a bit in Week 2...this is now a top BUY LOW moment. It won’t be dirt cheap, but you might be able to pay WR1.5/2 money for a WR1 here...because people don’t fully get what Penix is gonna be capable of.
Is Darnell Mooney a buy? I mean, maybe? It just looks like it’s London as the top target...and then targets sprinkled around to all the others randomly...including to Kyle Pitts (7-59-0/8), who had a good game...but I see no signs of ‘wow’ here...just he’s OK with the benefit of being with Gatlin gun Penix.
AS LONG AS HE DOES NOT BLOW ANOTHER ACL AGAIN!
-- Penix being so impressive should not overshadow how good the Falcons defense was here. They held Baker to a 53.1% Comp. Pct. and just 167 passing yards in this game. They held Bucky to a 2.6 yards per carry day. Two of Baker’s TD passes had to be so perfect just to get through. Just a great game all around for the ATL-DST. Eye-opening, really.
We’ll talk about some of the individual defenders in a minute, but this defense may have to be considered a tough matchup going forward for opposing offenses, especially opposing RBs/the run game.
-- With all this new reality on the ATL defense, you have to give Baker Mayfield (17-32 for 167 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 5-39-0) a ton of credit for being under pressure a lot but just finding ways to score points/move the ball and win. Baker is going to be a mid-tier QB1 again this season...just outside the top 5 obvious guys...Baker and Herbert trying to knock on the door and get into the top 5 FF QBs.
-- I give up, again...and I already did a few weeks ago...I get it now, Emeka Egbuka (4-67-2/6) is gonna be really good, possibly great for FF. He’s not a ‘wow’ WR, he’s more Amon-Ra St. Brown...just a true professional WR with fantastic hands and works with one of the top offenses/QB talents in the league.
Chris Godwin is in real trouble when he returns...and Godwin nearing a return may cause Egbuka’s value to drop for a potential buy, if inclined, if Egbuka isn’t blowing up stat lines for a few weeks leading up to the Godwin return.
-- Bucky Irving (14-37-0, 4-8-1/4) looks terrific to me...a kinda generic, modern-day Barry Sanders...but that’s how good the ATL run defense was -- they bottled up Bucky all game. I gotta have more Bucky like I gotta have more cowbell in my life, but I missed it mostly/am too late/gonna have to pay up for it. That’s OK. I’m willing to pay more for sure things.
Rachaad White (2-14-0, 1-2-0/1) might as well not even exist anymore, which is not an RW issue...it’s how good Bucky is...and more how in love the Bucs are with Bucky.
-- IDP Notes...
Falcons rookie SAF Xavier Watts (6 tackles, 2 PDs) was sensational here. Best SAF of the rookie class performance. I didn’t see ‘it’ in college scouting or in the preseason, but I see it now.
As I started focusing on the ATL defense watching the game tape, I was like...“Alexa, who is that #0 on the Atlanta Falcons?” It was Divine Deablo (6 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, 1 PD)...so quick and aggressive, and effective.
Kaden Elliss (5 tackles, 1 TFL) is ready to be a Pro Bowl level IDP for the Falcons.
Atlanta added Diablo and Leonard Floyd (0 tackles) as starter to go with rookies who now start, and are really good, in Watts and slot CB Billy Bowman (6 tackles, 0.5 sacks), plus higher profile 1st-round rookies James Pearce (0 tackles, 1 QB hit) and Jalon Walker (3 tackles) are rotational backups for ATL at this point. This defense is remade/rebuilt and looks terrific under their new defensive coordinator.
And there was a Bucs defender that stood out, starting SAF Tykee Smith (11 tackles, 1 PD) splashed with a game high 11 tackles.
There are more defenders I could touch on, but I only have so much typing capacity and time.
Just a very impressive game/battle on both sides.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Bijan
19 = Allgeier
72 = Casey Washington
67 = London
59 = Pitts
55 = McCloud
08 = Hodge
54 = Egbuka
50 = Otton
48 = Mk Evans
37 = St. Shepard
09 = R Miller
44 = Bucky
14 = Rachaad
02 = Tucker
58 = Elliss
57 = Deablo
47 = Bowman
34 = Floyd
26 = J. Walker
25 = Ebiketie
23 = Pearce
