Drake Maye. #3 overall pick in the 2024 draft. Year 2 trip to the Superbowl. 14-3 record. MVP runner-up. 72% completion percentage. 4394 passing yards. 31 TDs. QB2 in overall and ppg for fantasy. He’s obviously already one of the best QBs in the game, a guaranteed megastar, will be back to the Superbowl multiple times, and should be drafted as a top 3 QB in redraft…right?
RC recently charged me with a rewind report of 2025’s biggest breakout star. All season long, as the Patriots charged to the Superbowl, I accused Maye and the Patriots of being schedule merchants, beneficiaries of a ridiculously easy schedule. RC’s question: Was the emergence real or schedule driven? Both? Has Maye arrived and I was late to the party or was everyone being fooled by a quirk of the schedule?
And after a comprehensive review of the tape and the numbers…I am more convinced than ever that Maye and the Patriots are frauds, and a massive regression is coming for their win-loss record and Maye’s fantasy stats.
Let’s start with the tape. Did Maye improve this year? Absolutely. He’s definitely going to be a good player. He’s already a good player. But he’s not a great player yet, not like everyone is assuming.
There are two major issues I still see with Maye, and they were issues he had coming out of college as well. First, his precision is spotty. That may sound crazy considering he just completed 72% of his passes, but there is a difference between accuracy and precision. Accuracy is getting it to the right area. Precision is getting the ball into the correct spot every time, usually out in front of the receiver.
Maye is accurate. He’s not precise yet. Too often his ball location is way off, either behind a receiver on crossing routes or sailing it too high on seams. The good news is that is a mechanical issue and theoretically can be fixed.
The second major issue is that Maye is not a great anticipator. He has to wait to see a route fully open up before he’ll throw it, a note that was famously articulated by Seattle safety Julian Love in the Superbowl before picking off Maye. This is also theoretically fixable, although it’s much more difficult than a mechanical issue. It just takes time and reps.
However, the biggest factor working against Maye in 2026 is going to be the schedule. I brought it up repeatedly during the 2025 season, but it’s worth exploring just how easy their schedule was historically.
The combined record of all of the Patriots’ opponents was 113-176 in 2025, a 39.1% win rate. They only played 3 total regular season games against teams with a winning record, the uninspiring Steelers and twice against the Bills. Their next toughest games were the Ravens and Bucs, but Lamar got hurt midway through the game and the Bucs were missing most of their top playmakers. 13 of their regular season opponents would end up picking in the top half of the NFL draft.
The best defense the Patriots played all season was the 12th ranked Bills twice. 9 of their 17 games were played against teams with a defense ranked 20th or worse. 12 of 17 were bottom half of the league.
In the regular season the Patriots averaged 28.8 ppg, the 2nd ranked scoring offense in the league. Maye completed 72% of his passes for 31 TDs and 8 INTs, threw for 8.9 YPA, and fumbled 8 times, losing 3 of them.
In the playoffs the Patriots played the 9th, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st ranked defenses. They averaged just 16.8 ppg (would have been 4th worst in the entire league for the season). Maye completed 58.3% of his passes for 6 TDs and 4 INTs, threw for 6.9 YPA and fumbled 7 times, losing 4 of them.
Is it natural for a QB and offense to have lower numbers against such a ferocious cast of defenses? Of course. But the key here is how much they fell off. This wasn’t just the Patriots not playing as well as usual. They performed like one of the worst offenses in the league over the course of the playoffs. They beat the Chargers because LA’s offensive line was broken and they could only manage 3 points, and they got a 5-3 turnover lead over the Texans and a 2-0 turnover lead on the Broncos. In the Superbowl they obviously got smashed by the Seahawks who were completely out of their class, and historically, that Seattle team wasn’t nearly as good as many other Superbowl winners.
The best comparison I can think of is the 2014-2016 Panthers.
The 2014 Panthers went 7-8-1 with the 19th ranked offense. Cam Newton had a forgettable season throwing sub 60% completion percentage and just 18 TDs to 12 INTs. His TD rate was 4% and he threw for 7 YPA. He would finish as QB7 in fantasy due to his rushing ability. They played a slightly weaker-than-normal schedule that year.
In 2015 though, the Panthers benefitted from a tremendously easy schedule. They went 15-1, finished as easily the top scoring team in the league, and lost in the Superbowl where they were smashed by Broncos with a shaky offense and elite defense (sound familiar?). Newton’s stats didn’t move much except he suddenly threw TDs at a 7% clip, 35 on the season, and his YPA rocketed to 7.8. He would finish the fantasy season as the QB1 overall.
In 2016 everyone was predicting more of the same, but reality struck. The Panthers faced a harder than average schedule, and their results came crashing back to earth. They finished just 6-10 with the 15th ranked offense in the league. Newton’s TD% fell back to just 3.7% and his YPA dropped to 6.9. He finished the fantasy season as QB13.
In 2015 pro-football-reference.com calculated the Panthers’ schedule as a -3.88 by their Simple Rating System. Typically, the weakest schedule in the league falls somewhere around -2 give or take.
The Patriots’ 2025 schedule was rated a -4.49.
In 2025 the Patriots were playing against a smorgasbord of the weakest teams in the league each and every week. That won’t be the case in 2026. A crash is coming for Maye and the Patriots, and it won’t even take a hard schedule to do it. Even just returning to a slightly easier-than-average schedule is likely to cause a massive difference in the perception of this team.
Some quick calculations on Maye’s fantasy outlook:
The two biggest factors are going to be his regression in both TD% and YPA.
Last season Maye jumped from 4.4% TD rate as a rookie to a 6.3% rate, good for 5th in the league. I expect that will fall back to somewhere around the 4.5% mark, which, even if the Patriots throw more next year (likely since they won’t be winning all the time), means his total TD count is likely to be in the mid 20s. Even if the Patriots throw 570 passes next year, around 80 more than 2025, a 4.5% rate gives us around 25-26 TDs for the season.
I also expect his YPA mark to regress to somewhere around 7.0. Again, even if the Patriots throw 570 times next year on more volume, that still leaves Maye at around 3990 passing yards.
Those two metrics alone, simply regressing to a normal range, and assuming heavily increased passing volume, still leaves Maye over 2.0 ppg down from his 2025 finish, and that’s assuming nothing else changes including his rushing stats. By itself, that would have made him QB10 last year, a down year for QB scoring. If the Patriots don’t throw that frequently (4-5 more attempts per game), then Maye could end up even lower.
After watching a lot of tape and exploring the stats and the schedule, the only logical conclusion I can come to is that Maye has not arrived yet as a player and will experience some massive regression in his stats, and the Patriots will win far fewer games in 2026.
Maye is the single most overvalued player in 2026 redrafts currently and possibly also dynasty. The popular view is that he is a Josh Allen caliber player, but I view him much closer to Sam Darnold with more rushing upside. He is capable of making plays within structure, but he’s still inconsistent and turnover prone. 2026 is going to be a massive wakeup call for Drake Maye fans much like 2024 was a wakeup call for CJ Stroud fans after everyone proclaimed him the next Mahomes.
RC NOTES:
There are some players that I am absolutely sure of from everything I see and from all my experience. Then there’s some players I just cannot nail down...I don’t like them, so then they do well that season. I get onboard, then they collapse. And back and forth...
Maye is in that ‘gray zone’ for me. I didn’t like him in college all that much, coming out for the draft. How he performed as a rookie was like I saw him in my college studies. Then when I’m doing a scouting celebration in my head on Maye after his rookie flop, he comes along and nearly wins the MVP.
I watched him in season, like I do all the players...and I saw a new/different/better Maye. New coaching staff, Year 2, and BOOM. I saw a big leap. But we see these things happen with most all decent QBs now -- depending upon your O-Line and coaching staff...and schedule...you can look like a god, or look terrible.
If you put Drake Maye in that Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Mac Jones type of rise when they get into the great situation -- then we shouldn’t just judge Maye by what we saw, our ‘feelings’ on what we saw on tape and in number accumulation. We should judge him more on O-Line, Coaching, and Schedule (and health)?
I’m getting to the point that I’m thinking that’s how ALL QBs should be judged. Enough with the art critic ‘look’ of the player...don’t get faked by that...judge them by their O-Line and coaching. Last year, Justin Herbert was awesome...until his second left tackle (Alt) went down. Alt came back; Herbert’s numbers rose up. Alt went back down...and out/gone for 2025, and then that led to Herbert getting hit more, thus getting hurt, thus having a terrible finish. Is Justin Herbert terrible?
So, can the opposite happen? The O-Line improves, the coaching improves from prior year, and then you get a gift schedule...and you are never hurt/playing through anything--that all of it going positive can carry you to new heights?
Baker Mayfield is the poster child for this thought process. Is scrappy good with awful Cleveland, as a rookie. Is really good with a coaching change in Cleveland the next year. Gets hurt Year 3, tries to play through it and collapses trying to be a gamer...and the terrible organization turns on him...dumps him to a terrible Carolina situation, where Baker and Darnold look like idiots playing football. It gets so bad in Carolina that Baker is cut...consider that--Baker Mayfield, one of the 5 best QBs in the NFL (when healthy) was flat-out cut a few years ago. Sean McVay hops on that and instant turnaround for Baker. Then he gets a basic chance with Tampa...impresses, wins a division title, then has a top 5 FF season in 2024 with Liam Coen and healthy O-Line...then in 2025, Coen is gone, his left tackle gets hurt and thus Baker gets hurt and tries to play through 5 different injuries and fades off.
Which version of Baker is the real Baker?
Depends on his health...O-Line...coach/O-C...and maybe schedule.
Can Drake Maye stay top 5 for FF in 2026? Well... His left tackle sucks (Will Campbell), getting exposed bad in the playoffs...NE did nothing to change the situation in 2026. The head coach is distracted, maybe? The schedule is a 1st-place schedule so it’s not better.
There are headwinds, not tailwinds, blowing against Drake Maye.
Is Drake Maye a good NFL QB? Maybe, but for FF...I don’t really care...and even for the NFL purposes (betting, etc.) I don’t care about whether he is a B+ or B- or C+ talent...the league has a ton of those B/C grade QBs...as long as I know he is a B/C QB, then I need to look harder at the O-Line, coaches, schedule to see if it’s a B-season or C-season.
I think this about Maye, as a scout: Not an ‘A’ and not a ‘D’ as a talent. So he joins 20+ other QBs in the B/C ‘friend zone’.
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