(same intro everyday) Using the rosters as they are as of mid-June (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Weeks 1-3 Notes...
-- Only two undefeated (3-0) teams make it through the first 3 weeks, and they are Houston and Chicago.
-- Three teams are winless through the first 3 weeks, and they are Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland.
-- The biggest (good) surprise event through these first three weeks is Dallas and the New York Giants getting out to a co-lead in the NFC East.
-- The biggest (bad) surprise through these first three weeks? The defending champions start out with a sluggish (1-2) record and are running 3rd-place in the NFC West.
AFC East
Team W-L PCT
BUF 2-1 0.667
NE 2-1 0.667
NYJ 1-2 0.333
MIA 0-3 0.000
AFC North
Team W-L PCT
PIT 2-1 0.667
CIN 1-2 0.333
BAL 1-2 0.333
CLE 0-3 0.000
AFC South
Team W-L PCT
HOU 3-0 1.000
JAX 2-1 0.667
IND 2-1 0.667
TEN 1-2 0.333
AFC West
Team W-L PCT
LAC 2-1 0.667
DEN 2-1 0.667
KC 2-1 0.667
LV 1-2 0.333
NFC East
Team W-L PCT
DAL 2-1 0.667
NYG 2-1 0.667
PHI 1-2 0.333
WSH 1-2 0.333
NFC North
Team W-L PCT
CHI 3-0 1.000
GB 2-1 0.667
DET 2-1 0.667
MIN 1-2 0.333
NFC South
Team W-L PCT
TB 2-1 0.667
ATL 1-2 0.333
CAR 1-2 0.333
NO 1-2 0.333
NFC West
Team W-L PCT
LAR 2-1 0.667
SF 2-1 0.667
SEA 1-2 0.333
ARI 0-3 0.000
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