*Tomorrow's FAUX post for Weeks 13-15 will be for subscribers only, as we start to discuss some betting opportunities.
Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from the Faux season-to-date...
-- Best record in Faux 1.0 after 12 weeks...still the Rams and Bears (9-3) as NFC leaders but now joined by SF (9-3)...and an AFC team finally, the Chargers at (9-3) as well.
-- Worst record? Still the Cardinals, but they finally did get their first win and are now (1-11), trying hard to get the #1 pick for 2026. NYJ and CLE are both (2-10).
-- The Bills (8-4) take over the AFC East lead for the first time; by a game over NE (7-5).
-- What is happening in the AFC North? The Bengals (8-4) have opened up a 4-game lead in PIT and BAL both (4-8).
-- The AFC South is now tied...HOU and IND (8-4) are pulling away from 2025’s champ JAX (5-7).
-- The Chargers (9-3) now have a 2-game lead on DEN and KC (7-5) in the AFC West.
-- Who wants the NFC East? NYG (6-6) still leads...but still haven’t been above .500 in weeks. PHIL and DAL are close behind at (5-7).
-- The Bears (9-3) lead the NFC North by 2-games over GB and DET (7-5).
-- The Saints (6-6) have lost 3 in a row and are now tied with TB (6-6) for the NFC South...Carolina (5-7) is just a game out now.
-- The 49ers (9-3) have won 5 in a row and are now tied with the Rams (9-3) atop the NFC West, while the defending champs SEA (6-6) start to fade from the race.
AFC East
Team W-L PCT
BUF 8-4 0.667
NE 7-5 0.583
MIA 3-9 0.250
NYJ 2-10 0.167
AFC North
Team W-L PCT
CIN 8-4 0.667
BAL 4-8 0.333
PIT 4-8 0.333
CLE 2-10 0.167
AFC South
Team W-L PCT
HOU 8-4 0.667
IND 8-4 0.667
JAX 5-7 0.417
TEN 3-9 0.250
AFC West
Team W-L PCT
LAC 9-3 0.750
DEN 7-5 0.583
KC 7-5 0.583
LV 4-8 0.333
NFC East
Team W-L PCT
NYG 6-6 0.500
PHI 5-7 0.417
DAL 5-7 0.417
WSH 3-9 0.250
NFC North
Team W-L PCT
CHI 9-3 0.750
DET 7-5 0.583
GB 7-5 0.583
MIN 4-8 0.333
NFC South
Team W-L PCT
TB 6-6 0.500
NO 6-6 0.500
CAR 5-7 0.417
ATL 2-10 0.167
NFC West
Team W-L PCT
LAR 9-3 0.750
SF 9-3 0.750
SEA 6-6 0.500
ARI 1-11 0.083
