Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from the Faux season-to-date...
-- Undefeated teams (3-0): IND, GB, CHI
-- Winless teams (0-3): ATL, ARI, MIN, WSH, MIA
-- No big shock, the Bills and Patriots (2-1) tie for the early lead in the AFC East.
-- The Bengals (2-1) take the early AFC North lead.
-- Undefeated Indy (with a Daniel Jones back Week 1 assumption) takes a one game lead over HOU (2-1).
-- The AFC West powers are in a 3-ay tie for the division lead...KC-LAC-DEN are all (2-1).
-- The G-Men (2-1), under new management take a 1-game lead to start in the NFC East.
-- The NFC North has some strong starts...GB and CHI start out (3-0) and DET is (2-1).
-- A 3-way tie in the NFC South between TB-CAR-NO (2-1)
-- A 3-way tie in the NFC West between LAR-SEA-SF (2-1)
AFC North
Team W-L PCT
CIN 2-1 0.667
BAL 1-2 0.333
PIT 1-2 0.333
CLE 1-2 0.333
AFC South
Team W-L PCT
IND 3-0 1.000
HOU 2-1 0.667
TEN 1-2 0.333
JAX 1-2 0.333
AFC West
Team W-L PCT
LAC 2-1 0.667
DEN 2-1 0.667
KC 2-1 0.667
LV 1-2 0.333
NFC East
Team W-L PCT
NYG 2-1 0.667
PHI 1-2 0.333
DAL 1-2 0.333
WSH 0-3 0.000
NFC North
Team W-L PCT
GB 3-0 1.000
CHI 3-0 1.000
DET 2-1 0.667
MIN 0-3 0.000
NFC South
Team W-L PCT
TB 2-1 0.667
CAR 2-1 0.667
NO 2-1 0.667
ATL 0-3 0.000
NFC West
Team W-L PCT
LAR 2-1 0.667
SEA 2-1 0.667
SF 2-1 0.667
ARI 0-3 0.000
