Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
7/6 SUN
(7:38amET)
-- Aaron Rodgers set up a special workout time with his receivers -- a trip for them to California.
The attendees were: DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson, Scotty Miller, and Ben Skowronek and TE Pat Freiermuth
Rodgers places a ton of value on ‘relationship’ with his receivers, so given Rodgers’ new situation with the Steelers, showing up to this was pretty important and telling. We should see in this upcoming week or two what Rodgers had to say about this time and compliments he pays, etc.
But as telling as the guest list should be, who didn’t go has to be of note as well...not going cannot help them get integrated for 2025 as well as the others, in theory...or maybe they weren’t even invited, which is also quite telling?
Notable non-participants...
Jonnu Smith = Maybe he was transitioning his physical move to Pittsburgh? But I’d think new job, new situation -- going to this special event would take some priority? Perhaps the fact he only got a 1-year deal means he doesn’t feel like he’s beholden to the team? We’ll likely find out why he didn’t go in 1-2 weeks as well, because that’s a big name to miss.
Robert Woods = Some list him as a likely starter for PIT, but I don’t think he is. His non-attendance tells me he doesn’t care/this is his last NFL stop. With Skowronek and Miller going, and Woods not...Woods may realize it’s ‘over’ too.
Darnell Washington = It would’ve been a huge statement for him to go to this to show future employers (upon free agency) that he can be a three down TE; to show his effort/ability in the pass game...and he has had a nice OTA time this year and got people buzzing a bit for his 2025....until...then the Jonnu trade hit and Washington likely feels like an odd man out of the passing game/just is a blocker TE for Art Smith, primarily.
-- Yesterday, I opined about the coming wave of top CFB prospects staying in school longer to gain more experience and (mostly) because they would get well compensated to do so...the motive to jump to the NFL, financially, is being taken away/reduced...especially at QB...and now WR.
But maybe the other positions are not as far off on this trend as I thought...the O-Linemen are starting to get some juice (as they should...the 2nd most important position aside from QB)...
https://nypost.com/2025/07/04/sports/felix-ojo-lands-5-million-nil-deal-after-texas-tech-commitment/
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Green Bay.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Michael Penix
Jordan Love, Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo, Detroit
Denver, Baltimore
Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona,
Carolina, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Almost done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
7/5 SAT
(8:40amET)
-- Speaking of a Saturday/s...
August 30, 2025...Texas (and Arch Manning) vs. the defending champs Ohio State (and Jeremiah Smith).
As you may know, I rarely/try not to watch college football in-season...too much NFL to work on. I watch the college season after the NFL season while scouting hundreds of players for the upcoming NFL Draft. BUT...I will make an exception for this Texas-OSU clash.
Arch Manning’s real debut as an entrenched starter facing a major opponent and everyone’s favorite FF college future prospect, Jeremiah Smith. The viewership rating on that game will be insane. And that’s just two of several top, interesting college prospects in that game. See our Devy series for the Arch and Jeremiah (yest.) preview reports from Ross and I...and there’s more Texas and OSU prospect reports to come this month.
My loose goal for that game is...to stream it live, for instant RC scouting reaction. I hope to have Ross, and potentially others, on for a watch/scouting party. My first streaming commentary of a college game. It’s in the early planning stages...just an idea that hit me, when I saw that it was a game happening before the NFL season starts...and became of interest after doing the Arch and Jeremiah reports.
...and as Ross and I debated whether Arch would be the most beloved prospect ever or the most villainized (for a spell).
I propose/theorize that the media and many fans are gonna ‘hate’ Arch Manning...as the media tends to do...they pick QBs to attack for ‘reasons’ (Baker, Goff, Cousins, Hurts are just a few NFL QBs that the media tried to get replaced early in their careers, we were told they were a joke/terrible and articles flowed on how their teams needed to replace them)...and the fans will go with it too because we love to doom something not working this very moment/on demand.
I think there could be a ‘Manning fatigue’ (too much Peyton and Eli everywhere) and just a general ‘privilege’ bias (people think Arch is only a thing because he is a Manning). I think if Arch slips, the media will attack...and it will be ‘cool’ to doubt or talk about how overrated and privileged Arch is.
Ross thinks that’s an insane theory. And maybe he’ll be right, but I would propose that the 8/30 Texas-Ohio State game will be the first shoe to fall in what the public thinks of Arch. If he wins that game and/or looks great/racks numbers...if it’s obvious, then my theory takes an initial possible terminal hit, and people will be won over. BUT...if Arch loses big, and/or has a mediocre or bad game, in the first real highly rated event for the nation on him against a top foe -- I think all the hate concrete will be poured out and let to dry from there and he’ll have to dig his way out of it over time as Baker, Goff, Cousins, Hurts, etc., did.
Football fans are by & large ‘complainers’ and they only need one bad event in front of their eyes to turn them into making grand, sweeping decisions on a player...turbocharged by talk radio blathers. It’s the instant reaction, quick online comments world we live in. I think a chunk of the media and a chunk of fans will want to be anti-Arch (for a time) and the Texas-OSU game might be some red meat thrown into their Lion’s cage (red meat = a bad game by Arch in one of the biggest viewed regular season football games in history).
The NFL preseason will be over by that 8/30 game, and the NFL will not have done it’s 53-man roster work officially...so, it’s a good pocket of time for me to stop and watch that game...and stream it, hopefully.
-- Another thing Ross J. and I have been talking about, speaking of college football, is the future trend/the move towards top prospects/players staying in college a lot longer, because they will get paid well, in some cases more, to stay in college...at the skill positions of QB and WR.
I think QBs are especially going to stay in college longer and longer...because the future desire of the NFL is going to be ‘mature’ QBs, ‘experienced’ QBs. The future is Cam Ward with several years of college play, at three different colleges...the future is not Anthony Richardson rushing to the NFL with ‘tools for days’ and coaches thinking ‘we’ll shape him in our image’!
Not that some top players won’t rush into the league as soon as they can, but more I’m saying NFL teams will not value that ‘youth’ like they used to...it’s gonna be more of a negative now/ahead. Arch Manning is likely not going to come out in the draft next year...especially if he is the slam dunk #1 pick and a team like the Browns has the #1 overall pick. He’ll just get $15-20M NIL $$$ to stay at Texas another year, or transfer to Ole Miss for the helluva it. He’ll have a ton of options, and like Peyton did...staying in school and maturing more, why not? Especially when you’ve got a lifetime of great money already banked from playing college.
Everyone assuming Jeremiah Smith will leave Ohio State for the draft in 2027...maybe he will, maybe he won’t...he said as much in an interview recently. What if Ohio State pays him $15-20M to stay one more year...what if he can break some college records in another year? Why jump to the NFL so fast? Injury worry to hurt his draft stock? He’ll also make OSU buy him a big insurance policy to stay, for sure.
The NFL game is constantly changing...the next change is gonna be the slowdown of top prospects at QB and WR rushing to go to the NFL Draft.
...unless the NIL rules get changed
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Detroit.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo, Detroit
Denver, Baltimore
Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona,
Carolina, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Almost done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
7/4 FRI
(7:57amET)
HAPPY and SAFE INDEPENDENCE DAY AMERICA!!!
-- I randomly heard Albert Breer talking on The Herd, on a YouTube clip yesterday. They were discussing the PIT-MIA trade impacts and meanings, and I wasn’t really listening that closely...but then as they were about to wrap, Breer said two things of note...
a) He postured that Tyreek WAS available if Miami got a good offer for him. And I am getting the sense, from talking to various people, that we really might see Tyreek get dealt. If the Steelers didn’t have their head so far up Art Smith’s arse, they could’ve made a play for Tyreek instead of Jonnu...just my wondering.
If I knew Tyreek was getting traded for sure, and I had to guess the team he’d go to right now, my rankings would be (and some deal making guess for fun):
1) KC...the easy option. Tyreek in a deal for Charles Omenihu (former SF EDGE), CB Josh Williams, and a pick/s of some kind...depending upon how much payroll Miami or KC eats on Tyreek.
This deal more likely happens in a few weeks into the season if Miami is flopping.
2) SF...McDaniel does a deal with his good friend.
One of the reasons why Ramsey didn’t go to the Rams...McDaniel didn’t want to send him to the NFC West against his buddy Shanahan. I can respect that. Tyreek for TE Ross Dwelley and Aiyuk foundation for the deal, but SF paying a lot of Aiyuk’s deal just to be rid of him.
3) BAL...the Ravens are always chasing veteran WRs. Tyreek for Mark Andrews and TJ Tampa foundation?
The other thing Colin asked about, at the very end, was about the Terry McLaurin (in a contract dispute with WSH) to the Patriots rumors. Breer said the situation was not-nothing (paraphrasing), and reminded us to remember that Mike Vrabel was coaching in and around at Ohio State when McLaurin was there and that Vrabel would love to get him but probably not likely.
I concur with Breer that this is more likely ‘smoke’...everything people I trust tell me that Washington loves and respects what McLaurin has done over the years for the franchise and they will ultimately get a new deal done.
-- Rashee Rice has his court date set...for Jan 20th, 2026. So...just in time for the Chiefs season to end, and that date means the NFL expects KC to make the playoffs then lose in the first or second-round, given that date...that date is right before the AFC Conference Finals. If you believe in NFL conspiracies, KC is not making it to the AFC Finals...based on the court date.
More seriously, this is good FF-news for Rashee and Rashee owners. It means Rice is free to play the entire 2025 season. You will see him boosted in our next draft guide projections, changed in the Dynasty projections, and removed from the OV (overvalued) list.
You know... My son got pulled over for an expired annual registration earlier this year. He had his court date set to appear within like 60 days. If only he had made it to the NFL...he could’ve pushed off the hearing for 1.5+ years and scheduled it around his work at his convenience.
The court makes sure to try and get those $50-200+ fines ASAP from basic civilians commuting home from work at 5-6pm, but Rashee and friends going 100-150 MPH and crashing into property and people and walking away from the scene -- no rush to adjudicate...no big deal.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Denver.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Denver, Baltimore
Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona,
Carolina, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Almost done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
7/3 THU
(6:55amET)
-- Rumors are swirling that Gabe Davis might be the Steelers’ next move...looking to sign a WR. I mean, it’s possible...now that the Steelers are making all these ‘all in 2025’ moves, it would make sense they would look to add veteran WRs for Aaron Rodgers to work with...instead of ‘going for it’ on Austin/Wilson.
But Gabe Davis...really?
Here are some other names I thought of and/or have been rumored to the Steelers...
Why not Keenan Allen? I don’t think Allen is going to sign anywhere outside of the West Coast, unless someone really invests a lot in him, which they probably won’t given his age...so, I don’t think Allen here makes any sense. I do wonder if Allen will sign with LAC, ultimately, a one-year deal to just go back to his long-time team to help his friends try to win the division/title and play out a final NFL season? Just a thought.
What about Amari Cooper? Possibly...just ‘possibly’ because no one wants Cooper. He looked like trash last season. If he still has the itch, the Steelers could give him a minimum deal to come in and take a look. I just don’t know why Amari would wanna take a cheap deal after the money he’s made over his career. But these guys usually hang on 2-3 years longer than they should -- but if someone is gonna throw them $1-2-3M for a year of working out, why not hang on?
Tyler Boyd is literally/publicly begging the Steelers to sign him, but Boyd has not looked good for a couple of years now. Pitt already signed Robert Woods to that same type of thing...fading, cheap veteran slot-ish type WR.
Allen Lazard now makes a ton of sense. If the Steelers are going all in, why would you not get a WR who is so notably tied to Rodgers? Like with the Jets of the past two years, if you’re taking the Rodgers road...then you go get Cobb, Lazard, Adams, etc. If you sign Tom Brady, then here comes Gronk, Antonio, etc. The Jets cannot have any real loyalty or affinity for Lazard, so the Steelers making a basic offer or slightly overmarket offer likely gets this done. If this happens, then Lazard jumps into the top 40-50 WRs, probably, on consensus WR projections...and Austin/Wilson FF-die even more.
I assume Rodgers’s friend, Juwann Winfree, could be a camp add and then practice squad guy. Nothing for FF, just noting he’s a free agent waiting by the phone.
-- This is pretty amazing, in context...
Remember when if you were a 31+ year old player, especially a skill player, your career was pretty much deemed ‘over’? It really wasn’t that long ago.
You know what I don’t really see anymore? Those charts of performance by age over the past 20 years or ‘breakout ages’ on young players -- like I’ve said for years, all that data is worthless for predicting ability/production. It’s a new era, and the age-related performance data from 5+ years ago is all but obsolete. Every year, the trends blow up the prior couple year trend. There is no trend to bank on, but that age and performance is shifting fast and upwards on the 30+ side. 35 may be the new 30 for football skill players.
-- An interesting take/critique on all of Miami’s dealings and what they’re trying to do, coming from a local source: https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2025/07/01/chris-perkins-10-thoughts-on-dolphins-jalen-ramsey-and-darren-waller-trades/
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Dallas.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Dak Prescott
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona,
Carolina, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Halfway done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
How to get the free FFM App: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
7/2 WED
(7:03amET)
-- Another thought hitting me post-Jonnu trade, Waller trade...
If you agree that the Jonnu move to the Steelers is not a good thing for his FF output outlook, and that it also sinks Pat Freiermuth some more, and that Darren Waller is not THAT Waller from 2020...then that’s some disruption to the overall TE valuations for 2025, no?
Jonnu goes from a top 5-8 TE hope to...maybe outside the TE1 group now?
‘Muth’ goes from a #12-16 type hope – to definitely out of the TE1 discussion.
On a supply-and-demand level, we just had one serious TE1 (Jonnu) removed from the supply chain but the FF demand for top TEs remains -- it only makes Bowers-McBride-Kittle even more valuable and bumps the LaPorta-TJH-Engram-Kelce-Njoku tier up a bit as well.
-- NBC Headline: The Athletic’s Daniel Popper believes the Chargers’ passing offense won’t be “stunted” in 2025.
Ross Jacobs is working on an in-depth piece on the Chargers offense, addressing all this talk of the Chargers changing from a Jim Harbaugh heavy run attack (a la 2024 until JKD broke down, and a la all of his Michigan years).
It’s a huge issue for FF purposes. Will this be a more balanced offense, as the LAC coaches are professing? Will Justin Herbert get turned loose some more? Does this launch Ladd McConkey even higher?
I’ve been very staunch that Jim Harbaugh does not change, but Ross is finding evidence to change my stance. This report will be out sometime in the next few weeks...because Ross is also working on a Bengals and Lions special report that will be FF 2025 strategy changing as well. Plus, we’re working on a million other things right now.
July was supposed to be the slow month for us!
There are no slow months in serious football study. Opportunity is hiding all over. We have an unlimited amount of football excavation sites to work.
-- Headline item: Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad, knee) said he is “healthy” and “ready to get back on the field.”
Well, a few days ago, I said there was worry in Tennessee about Sneed’s injury from 2024 still being some issue into 2025...and people wondering whether he was milking it, etc. Suddenly, Sneed is out addressing his injury...medically clearing himself with words...in July, when the players are on vacation. Sneed is saying he’s fine.
We’ll see.
This affects any early (anti) Titans bets people like me may be making.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Cleveland.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Arizona
Cincinnati, Atlanta
Carolina, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Halfway done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
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7/1 TUE
(7:23amET)
-- Our two-a-day, annual Devy series begins today and runs everyday all month.
We will begin with Arch Manning...then it will be an unadvertised player (usually) from there...and for the rest of the month.
Although, I can say there will be a day dedicated to Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams -- the supposed/much lauded 2027 draft Wondertwins. Are they as good as everyone is saying...or is the mainstream not going far enough? We’ll find out...soon.
-- With the Jonnu Smith trade hitting yesterday, the media’s attention quickly focused on...’Who will the Dolphins get to be their TE?’
And their resounding #1 answer to that was -- Michael Mayer!
In other words = Will someone please save/highlight this stiff/TE we pitched as ‘the next Gronk’.
I don’t think that a Mayer trade to Miami is happening at all. If the Raiders were gonna trade Mayer, they would’ve done it by now. His value would have been high before the NFL Draft, and right after.
But before you go matchmaking TEs to Miami, I think you have to consider -- the Dolphins don’t care about the TE position all that much. Mike McDaniel was never happier than when Durham Smythe was playing the most snaps of any TE in 2022 and 2023...McDaniel’s first two seasons as head coach, and you know what else those two seasons were? Back-to-back playoff appearances.
I know, I was kinda surprised by that too. I’m trying to run McDaniel outta Miami, and he’s been to the playoffs in two of his 3 years with Miami.
Miami knew they had an issue with Jonnu Smith for 2025, at the very beginning of the offseason...they knew his contractual needs/wants. What did they do about it? Signed Pharaoh Brown and drafted NO ONE (at TE). They didn’t even/they aren’t even trying to get a TE. Mike Gesicki went to waste with them in 2022. Jonnu Smith was an accidental ‘thing’ in 2024 -- his first 4 games of 2024, for targets...2-7-3-1, playing just 40%+ of the snaps in games. They had no PLAN going into Week 1 to make Jonnu a thing. It happened by accident/need with Tua out...then it kept up when Tua came back, aided by Tyreek Hill having wrist issues and Jaylen Waddle having nagging issues all season that he played through...and a terrible run game because of O-Line issues.
Jonnu was SO GOOD in 2024 that Miami just dumped him to the Steelers; just thrown into a deal essentially...that’s how much Miami really cared about Jonnu/the tight end position being a receiving weapon.
Mike McDaniel wants blocking-first TEs for his coveted run game desires, thus the signing of Pharaoh Brown. Thus, the UDFA signing of thick/stocky/good blocker body with some athleticism in Jaylin Conyers. Julian Hill is meaningless to most everyone on the planet...but not to McDaniel; he played a ton of snaps for Miami last year behind Jonnu.
The Steelers signed Jonnu to a one-year, $12M deal for 2025 upon getting him in trade. If Miami was hyper about having a name TE in 2025...they could’ve given Jonnu that deal and kept him for a year.
Well, maybe they wanted a younger, future TE instead of Jonnu? Then why didn’t they draft one? It’s not a priority for Mike McDaniel...for good or for bad, it’s just not a priority. So, I think the TE that Miami gets/adds to the roster is probably some veteran TE that’s about to get cut in August...like a Hayden Hurst? Ian Thomas? Adam Trautman?
My prediction on who the Dolphins get -- it won’t be anyone exciting for FF purposes...or NFL purposes.
Jonnu 2024 was an outlier event for Miami...and then they just gave it away.
-- Also coming out today...an update on my reaction report on the Pitt-Miami trade from yesterday.
In my rush to slam out a ‘first reaction’, I got so focused on the Steelers side of it...I forgot to add the impact to the Miami passing game with the loss of Jonnu. I will add that commentary today and update/republish that.
But an item to back up something that I alluded to in that report yesterday, analyzing the deal, is this bombshell (for Miami) reactions from Steelers people:
I swear the Dolphins GM is the worst...
https://x.com/DavidMTodd/status/1939706251757187548
and
https://x.com/rayfitt1/status/1939706333437235267
Tyreek Hill sums it all up on X: https://x.com/cheetah/status/1939712592336818446
-- I looked at the 2025 schedule to see how many regular season games were on pay-for-services, and I was surprised to see that there was an odd-ball game (in my mind) on an unusual (to me) pay service...
And that game is a Week 7...a dual MNF event, oddly in the midseason. TB at DET is on ABC/ESPN...BUT...HOU at SEA (10pmET) is scheduled to be on ESPN+. That’s annoying to me, because I don’t have/pay for that channel...and I don’t want it, but I might need to burn the one-month sub.
Netflix has two games on Christmas day. Fine by me, I just finished watching the Squid Game finale. Netflix is becoming a staple service.
Now, there are other pay-for-services with games...but, to me, I assume most people have these channels by now because if you’re really into the NFL experience, you know you have to have them...or you have them for other reasons (like included in your cable package or for home shopping ease). And those two are:
1) NFL Network has 6 games; the international games.
2) Amazon Prime has all their THU night games as usual.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Cincinnati.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Arizona
Cincinnati, Atlanta
Carolina, Chicago
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off with...of course...Arch Manning.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Halfway done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
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MON 6/30
(11:50amET)
-- I’ll be breaking down the trade in full, for NFL and FF purposes ASAP. But I wanted to post a quick reaction to something several people have asked in the past 15 minutes...
So, who is the Miami TE of note for FF now?
My reactions in real time/first instinct reactions...
1) It doesn’t really matter who the ‘winner’ is at TE, from the guys left on the roster...I have maintained that during Mike McDaniel’s time in Miami, the TE has not been a key part of his offensive plan...and that the Jonnu uprising last year was not planned/happened by mistake...and they went with it.
Obviously, Jonnu was not important or valued for the offense...because they just gave him away.
2) My guess as to whom the starting TE will be for Miami is...
a) He’s probably not on the roster right now, or
b) ...of the guys on the roster, I think Julian Hill will lead the way in snaps/targets...but that will be like 1-2 targets/catches a game. Kinda like the Smythe/Long TE combo that Miami ran for a while a few years ago.
Hill will split snaps with Pharaoh Brown, signed in free agency
Blocking is important for McDaniel from the TE...not receiving prowess.
3) The long shot FF TE winner on the roster -- Tanner Conner, a WR converted to TE a few years ago. That guy could be an offensive weapon if they let him off the chain...but they never let him off the chain...
4) Rookie UDFA Jalin Conners...this Jonnu trade helps him try to make the 53-man roster, but I don’t see him ascending past everyone to become the shock starter. But the hope of that is now not 0% anymore.
I’ll have more on this later today.
(7:41amET)
-- Quotes from a recent Jalin Hyatt podcast appearance:
"I played at like 170, 171 last year, I'm about 194, 195 now," said Hyatt. "I felt like that was one of the things that I needed to work on from last season, just felt weak. So, I just had to get stronger."
I think this is somewhat of a big(ish) deal, on a couple of fronts...
1) I think Hyatt is a starting NFL talent, beyond just a ‘speedy deep ball guy’. I am keeping FF tabs on him. Some of his tape from late 2023 (his rookie season), when he was pushed in as a starter -- he had more to his game than just ‘deep ball guy’.
2024 was a giant step back. Wasn’t a starter. Barely played and rarely saw targets...and the targets he saw came from weak QBs.
I am not giving up on Hyatt just yet and am monitoring his progress.
2) More importantly, this news of a body bulk up -- it means Hyatt isn’t giving up on himself either. He’s fighting back. Whether the added muscle/size works or not, we’ll see...but I like that Hyatt is just ‘not going gently into that good night’. He’s trying to get his career going. Good for him.
And something good must be happening on the field in 2025, because it’s been a lot of ‘nice’ reports from OTAs...and from Russell Wilson himself.
Hyatt is not an ‘FF thing’ yet, but he’s at least heading in a positive direction. His torch has not been snuffed out yet. He’s fighting back. He’ll likely be the #4 WR, behind Darius Slayton. His time may be in 2026 under new coaching or 2027 free agency.
I wish they’d consider moving him to the slot and making it a Nabers-Hyatt-Slayton trio with Wan’Dale as a #4 gadget type player.
And I’d add, in DEEPer leagues...Hyatt is somewhat of a ‘handcuff’ for Malik Nabers. If Nabers goes down, Hyatt would step up into his role (obviously targeted less) and if Nabers never misses a game for the next 2 seasons, then Hyatt should split off to some hope with another team in free agency...or maybe even in trade in 2026.
-- An update from the (dreadful) Titans, on what is turning out to be one of the worst free agent signings of the past two years...
When KC traded L’Jarius Sneed so easily, so cheaply last year...we all should’ve known...
A couple of games into 2024 season, Sneed hurt his quad and was thought to be out not too long for the Titans...but he ended up missing the rest of the season.
And he has yet to be cleared for full participation this offseason...he’s been limited in OTAs. Concern is growing that Sneed might not be fully ready for training camp and perhaps missing the preseason too. There’s a growing concern that Sneed is milking this while collecting a massive payroll ($19M guaranteed this year)...and that this is going to be a massive bust free agent signing.
-- In other defensive injury news, it looks like Miami is set to have Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips cleared for the 2025 season. A nice boost for this not-that-bad of a defense in 2024.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Chicago.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Arizona
Atlanta
Carolina
Chicago
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off, with...of course...Arch Manning.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
