Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
7/1 TUE
(7:23amET)
-- Our two-a-day, annual Devy series begins today and runs everyday all month.
We will begin with Arch Manning...then it will be an unadvertised player (usually) from there...and for the rest of the month.
Although, I can say there will be a day dedicated to Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams -- the supposed/much lauded 2027 draft Wondertwins. Are they as good as everyone is saying...or is the mainstream not going far enough? We’ll find out...soon.
-- With the Jonnu Smith trade hitting yesterday, the media’s attention quickly focused on...’Who will the Dolphins get to be their TE?’
And their resounding #1 answer to that was -- Michael Mayer!
In other words = Will someone please save/highlight this stiff/TE we pitched as ‘the next Gronk’.
I don’t think that a Mayer trade to Miami is happening at all. If the Raiders were gonna trade Mayer, they would’ve done it by now. His value would have been high before the NFL Draft, and right after.
But before you go matchmaking TEs to Miami, I think you have to consider -- the Dolphins don’t care about the TE position all that much. Mike McDaniel was never happier than when Durham Smythe was playing the most snaps of any TE in 2022 and 2023...McDaniel’s first two seasons as head coach, and you know what else those two seasons were? Back-to-back playoff appearances.
I know, I was kinda surprised by that too. I’m trying to run McDaniel outta Miami, and he’s been to the playoffs in two of his 3 years with Miami.
Miami knew they had an issue with Jonnu Smith for 2025, at the very beginning of the offseason...they knew his contractual needs/wants. What did they do about it? Signed Pharaoh Brown and drafted NO ONE (at TE). They didn’t even/they aren’t even trying to get a TE. Mike Gesicki went to waste with them in 2022. Jonnu Smith was an accidental ‘thing’ in 2024 -- his first 4 games of 2024, for targets...2-7-3-1, playing just 40%+ of the snaps in games. They had no PLAN going into Week 1 to make Jonnu a thing. It happened by accident/need with Tua out...then it kept up when Tua came back, aided by Tyreek Hill having wrist issues and Jaylen Waddle having nagging issues all season that he played through...and a terrible run game because of O-Line issues.
Jonnu was SO GOOD in 2024 that Miami just dumped him to the Steelers; just thrown into a deal essentially...that’s how much Miami really cared about Jonnu/the tight end position being a receiving weapon.
Mike McDaniel wants blocking-first TEs for his coveted run game desires, thus the signing of Pharaoh Brown. Thus, the UDFA signing of thick/stocky/good blocker body with some athleticism in Jaylin Conyers. Julian Hill is meaningless to most everyone on the planet...but not to McDaniel; he played a ton of snaps for Miami last year behind Jonnu.
The Steelers signed Jonnu to a one-year, $12M deal for 2025 upon getting him in trade. If Miami was hyper about having a name TE in 2025...they could’ve given Jonnu that deal and kept him for a year.
Well, maybe they wanted a younger, future TE instead of Jonnu? Then why didn’t they draft one? It’s not a priority for Mike McDaniel...for good or for bad, it’s just not a priority. So, I think the TE that Miami gets/adds to the roster is probably some veteran TE that’s about to get cut in August...like a Hayden Hurst? Ian Thomas? Adam Trautman?
My prediction on who the Dolphins get -- it won’t be anyone exciting for FF purposes...or NFL purposes.
Jonnu 2024 was an outlier event for Miami...and then they just gave it away.
-- Also coming out today...an update on my reaction report on the Pitt-Miami trade from yesterday.
In my rush to slam out a ‘first reaction’, I got so focused on the Steelers side of it...I forgot to add the impact to the Miami passing game with the loss of Jonnu. I will add that commentary today and update/republish that.
But an item to back up something that I alluded to in that report yesterday, analyzing the deal, is this bombshell (for Miami) reactions from Steelers people:
I swear the Dolphins GM is the worst...
https://x.com/DavidMTodd/status/1939706251757187548
and
https://x.com/rayfitt1/status/1939706333437235267
Tyreek Hill sums it all up on X: https://x.com/cheetah/status/1939712592336818446
-- I looked at the 2025 schedule to see how many regular season games were on pay-for-services, and I was surprised to see that there was an odd-ball game (in my mind) on an unusual (to me) pay service...
And that game is a Week 7...a dual MNF event, oddly in the midseason. TB at DET is on ABC/ESPN...BUT...HOU at SEA (10pmET) is scheduled to be on ESPN+. That’s annoying to me, because I don’t have/pay for that channel...and I don’t want it, but I might need to burn the one-month sub.
Netflix has two games on Christmas day. Fine by me, I just finished watching the Squid Game finale. Netflix is becoming a staple service.
Now, there are other pay-for-services with games...but, to me, I assume most people have these channels by now because if you’re really into the NFL experience, you know you have to have them...or you have them for other reasons (like included in your cable package or for home shopping ease). And those two are:
1) NFL Network has 6 games; the international games.
2) Amazon Prime has all their THU night games as usual.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Cincinnati.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Arizona
Cincinnati, Atlanta
Carolina, Chicago
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off with...of course...Arch Manning.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Halfway done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
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MON 6/30
(11:50amET)
-- I’ll be breaking down the trade in full, for NFL and FF purposes ASAP. But I wanted to post a quick reaction to something several people have asked in the past 15 minutes...
So, who is the Miami TE of note for FF now?
My reactions in real time/first instinct reactions...
1) It doesn’t really matter who the ‘winner’ is at TE, from the guys left on the roster...I have maintained that during Mike McDaniel’s time in Miami, the TE has not been a key part of his offensive plan...and that the Jonnu uprising last year was not planned/happened by mistake...and they went with it.
Obviously, Jonnu was not important or valued for the offense...because they just gave him away.
2) My guess as to whom the starting TE will be for Miami is...
a) He’s probably not on the roster right now, or
b) ...of the guys on the roster, I think Julian Hill will lead the way in snaps/targets...but that will be like 1-2 targets/catches a game. Kinda like the Smythe/Long TE combo that Miami ran for a while a few years ago.
Hill will split snaps with Pharaoh Brown, signed in free agency
Blocking is important for McDaniel from the TE...not receiving prowess.
3) The long shot FF TE winner on the roster -- Tanner Conner, a WR converted to TE a few years ago. That guy could be an offensive weapon if they let him off the chain...but they never let him off the chain...
4) Rookie UDFA Jalin Conners...this Jonnu trade helps him try to make the 53-man roster, but I don’t see him ascending past everyone to become the shock starter. But the hope of that is now not 0% anymore.
I’ll have more on this later today.
(7:41amET)
-- Quotes from a recent Jalin Hyatt podcast appearance:
"I played at like 170, 171 last year, I'm about 194, 195 now," said Hyatt. "I felt like that was one of the things that I needed to work on from last season, just felt weak. So, I just had to get stronger."
I think this is somewhat of a big(ish) deal, on a couple of fronts...
1) I think Hyatt is a starting NFL talent, beyond just a ‘speedy deep ball guy’. I am keeping FF tabs on him. Some of his tape from late 2023 (his rookie season), when he was pushed in as a starter -- he had more to his game than just ‘deep ball guy’.
2024 was a giant step back. Wasn’t a starter. Barely played and rarely saw targets...and the targets he saw came from weak QBs.
I am not giving up on Hyatt just yet and am monitoring his progress.
2) More importantly, this news of a body bulk up -- it means Hyatt isn’t giving up on himself either. He’s fighting back. Whether the added muscle/size works or not, we’ll see...but I like that Hyatt is just ‘not going gently into that good night’. He’s trying to get his career going. Good for him.
And something good must be happening on the field in 2025, because it’s been a lot of ‘nice’ reports from OTAs...and from Russell Wilson himself.
Hyatt is not an ‘FF thing’ yet, but he’s at least heading in a positive direction. His torch has not been snuffed out yet. He’s fighting back. He’ll likely be the #4 WR, behind Darius Slayton. His time may be in 2026 under new coaching or 2027 free agency.
I wish they’d consider moving him to the slot and making it a Nabers-Hyatt-Slayton trio with Wan’Dale as a #4 gadget type player.
And I’d add, in DEEPer leagues...Hyatt is somewhat of a ‘handcuff’ for Malik Nabers. If Nabers goes down, Hyatt would step up into his role (obviously targeted less) and if Nabers never misses a game for the next 2 seasons, then Hyatt should split off to some hope with another team in free agency...or maybe even in trade in 2026.
-- An update from the (dreadful) Titans, on what is turning out to be one of the worst free agent signings of the past two years...
When KC traded L’Jarius Sneed so easily, so cheaply last year...we all should’ve known...
A couple of games into 2024 season, Sneed hurt his quad and was thought to be out not too long for the Titans...but he ended up missing the rest of the season.
And he has yet to be cleared for full participation this offseason...he’s been limited in OTAs. Concern is growing that Sneed might not be fully ready for training camp and perhaps missing the preseason too. There’s a growing concern that Sneed is milking this while collecting a massive payroll ($19M guaranteed this year)...and that this is going to be a massive bust free agent signing.
-- In other defensive injury news, it looks like Miami is set to have Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips cleared for the 2025 season. A nice boost for this not-that-bad of a defense in 2024.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Chicago.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Arizona
Atlanta
Carolina
Chicago
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off, with...of course...Arch Manning.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
