Towards the end of last season I thought I saw glimpses of Waddle becoming a more important figure within the Miami offense and passing game. He already has a WR #8 PPG finish under his belt during the 2022 season, so we know he’s capable of big things, but the presence of Tyreek Hill has pushed Waddle into the fringes over the past two seasons. With Tyreek starting to age I began to wonder if Waddle could grab a larger portion of the team’s offense moving forward.
So, I watched every game of Miami’s 2024 season. What I found is plenty of uncertainty and reason to be skeptical, but also fertile ground for excellent value in 2025 for anyone with eyes to see the path forward.
The season began not quite as expected. Gone was the 50/50 split between De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Instead, Achane was the clear lead back and Mostert was supporting him. Tyreek was still the focal point of the offense, and they were aggressively attacking downfield just like in 2023.
But the offense, as a whole, looked disjointed and ineffective. Something wasn’t quite clicking the same way. Then Tua was injured in week 2 against Buffalo and what was an average offense fell even further. Nothing was working. There was nowhere for Achane to run, and the QBs could barely get the ball to any of their speedy playmakers. The offense was putrid.
But then Mike McDaniel changed the offense, and at first we all missed it. Gone were the deep posts that Tyreek had feasted on for two years and replacing them was…Jonnu Smith running short routes? Yes, with a leaky offensive line, backup QBs starting in place of Tua, and Tyreek not separating quite the same on deep routes, McDaniel morphed the offense into a lot of quick game concepts to get the ball out of the hands of the QB in a hurry. With defenses still running lots of two deep shells to defend against the speed of Tyreek and Waddle, McDaniel instead made Jonnu and Achane into the engine of the passing game by matching them up with linebackers and throwing it quickly. The offense still wasn’t scoring many points, but at least they were moving the ball.
Then Tua returned in week 8 against Arizona and suddenly the team was scoring points again. Not only did the quick passing game continue, McDaniel leaned into it even more. Jonnu was generally the primary plan, and most defenses were struggling to stop him. Tua would still take the occasional midrange shot to Tyreek and Waddle, usually trying to isolate them in space where they could catch and run, but Jonnu was the first look on most plays, and Achane was the outlet if Jonnu was covered.
The league’s most explosive offense in 2023 was suddenly a ball control offense, but they were scoring over 27 points per game with Tua back from injury and the change in the offense.
It was around this point in the rewatch that I noticed Tyreek didn’t look like himself. I watched play after play of him to be sure, but it was obvious…Tyreek had lost a step. Now he was still really fast, but I wasn’t seeing “Tyreek speed” anymore. He wasn’t making defenders look like they were standing still. He was just another fast guy on the field. In fact, I would argue that Waddle looked just as fast, or maybe even a little faster, than Tyreek. Add in that Tyreek has never been a particularly good route runner, and his drop in efficiency was suddenly making more sense. Yes, Tua wasn’t targeting him like usual, but Tyreek himself wasn’t doing as much with his catches either.
Finally, I focused on Waddle around the time I remembered thinking he was starting to tick up in the offense. Sure enough, there it was on tape. Tua was starting to look for him more and more often towards the middle late portion of the year. Waddle was clearly a big part of their plan against the Patriots and Jets, and even more shockingly…Waddle absolutely roasted Christian Gonzalez in their matchup…repeatedly. And then it dawned on me…Gonzo was following Waddle…not Tyreek. Inside, outside, all across the formation. Wherever Waddle went Gonzo was usually on him, and not doing well.
But then an injury knocked Waddle out early against Houston and he wouldn’t return until the last game of the year against the Jets with Tua once again injured himself. Tyreek basically quit midgame and Waddle stepped up with another 9-target performance although he couldn’t do much with Tyler Huntley’s passes.
Here’s where I think we stand in 2025.
Achane is the engine of the offense. I’m thinking of him as Miami’s Christian McCaffrey. He is the one McDaniel is building everything around. Yes, the passing game ran through Jonnu after the switch last year, but Achane was still taking a large number of carries (at not 100% after his early ankle injury I might add) and was heavily involved in the passing game every single week. He is the center and the guy McDaniel wants to get the ball to the most.
The team massively upgraded at both guard positions by bringing in 327 lb. James Daniel and 324 lb. rookie Jonah Saviianaea so not only do I expect the run game to improve in general, the goal line run game should be much improved. This was an area the Dolphins really struggled with because their zone runs were getting pushed back at the line. That should mean more short TDs for Achane again. He should be valued as an elite PPR RB.
The passing game is where things get murky, and it’s here where I see a path to a possible surprise year for Waddle.
Jonnu and Tyreek have both been the subject of trade rumors this off-season. The team has been dumping big contracts left and right, and these two are next in line if the team is set on a massive rebuild which seems more and more likely by the day. Jonnu wants a big new contract based on his play, and the team isn’t interested in extending a 30-year-old TE. Tyreek…well he’s Tyreek, with all the drama that seems to follow him.
It seems safe to assume one of them will be gone before the season starts, likely Jonnu. Trading Tyreek is a bit more complicated largely because the team will be looking for significant compensation for him. If Jonnu is gone that’s 111 targets out the door. Waddle is a clear winner in this scenario as he’s likely to pick up a large portion of that.
But couldn’t Tyreek simply go back to his 170 targets from 2022 and 2023? I don’t think that’s likely even barring a trade. He’s clearly lost a step in his game and towards the end of the year the Dolphins were using him and Waddle interchangeably. In fact, Waddle looked like the more dangerous receiver of the two to my eyes.
I think we’re looking at, at worst, an even split between Waddle and Tyreek if Jonnu is gone, plus an even larger portion for Achane (100 catches for him this year is not out of the question). In this scenario I would expect Waddle and Tyreek to each command somewhere in the neighborhood of 130 targets each. Waddle needed just 117 to finish as the WR8 in 2022…with Tyreek still on the team and in his prime.
If Tyreek then gets traded before or during the season, Waddle is going to fully step into the Tyreek role and we’re looking at 170 targets or so.
The worst-case scenario for Waddle is nobody gets traded and things go on as usual, but that seems exceedingly unlikely with the way Miami has been shedding big contracts this year.
That’s where I stand right now. I understand why Waddle is being drafted as WR30 overall, but the reality is that things have changed. Obviously he needs Tua to stay healthy to put together a big year, and that’s a big IF, but it is very unlikely the Miami offense returns the exact same as last year and Waddle is the one that stands to gain the most from those changes.
Jonnu is very likely to be traded sooner rather than later. Tyreek could be next on the chopping block. The absence of either is likely to boost Waddle in the passing game. Both of them off the team would send him to the moon. Once again, he’s already proven what he can do before. We know he can play. His fantasy stats fell off due to the acquisition of Tyreek in his prime, repeated injuries to Tua, and then the emergence of Jonnu as a threat in the middle of the field, all factors outside of his control. He’s also still young and hitting his physical prime.
Conditions are lining up perfectly for a big Waddle year, but his ADP is being held down due to recency bias. If you are just going by what happened last year, then Waddle doesn’t make any sense obviously. But change is constant in the NFL. This season will not look like last season. Look a little forward into the future and you can see where things are likely to head and what the consequences are when they get there. For the price, Waddle is an excellent gamble, and at worst you’re paying fair value for a young receiver that has produced well in the past. But my money is on a resurgent year as pieces around Waddle move and shift, opening the door for him to seize a prominent role in the offense again.
