Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be some handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 7-9...
-- Four teams tied for best record in the Faux NFL 1.0...BUF-BAL-DET-PHI all (7-1).
-- The last winless team got a win...CLE is now (1-7), which is not the worst record in the NFL...the Titans and Saints have that honor at (1-8).
-- The nice Bills (7-1) start hasn’t put away the semi-surprising Patriots (6-3) in the AFC East...the Pats are ‘hanging around’.
-- The Ravens (7-1) have a 2-game lead over the Bengals (5-4) in the AFC North.
-- Houston (4-4) leads a very weak AFC South...one-game ahead of Jacksonville (3-5).
-- The Chargers (7-2) continue to lead the AFC West with Denver (6-3) in hot pursuit. The Chiefs are still below .500 (4-5) but are creeping back in.
-- The Eagles (7-1) and Commanders (6-3) are pulling away from Dallas (4-5) in the NFC East.
-- The Lions (7-1) lead the NFC North by 2-games over Green Bay (5-3).
-- The Bucs (5-3) are floundering around a bit but still lead ther NFC South by a game over Atlanta (4-4).
-- The Rams (6-2) hold the NFC West lead by a game over Arizona (5-3). The 49ers, the Vegas favorites for the NFC West, are in last place (3-6).
-- Tomorrow we’ll look at Weeks 10-11-12.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 7 | - | 1 | = | 0.875 |
| NE | …. | 6 | - | 3 | = | 0.667 |
| NYJ | … | 3 | - | 5 | = | 0.375 |
| MIA | … | 3 | - | 6 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 7 | - | 1 | = | 0.875 |
| CIN | … | 5 | - | 4 | = | 0.556 |
| PIT | … | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
| CLE | … | 1 | - | 7 | = | 0.125 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| HOU | … | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
| JAX | … | 3 | - | 5 | = | 0.375 |
| IND | … | 3 | - | 6 | = | 0.333 |
| TEN | … | 1 | - | 8 | = | 0.111 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAC | … | 7 | - | 2 | = | 0.778 |
| DEN | … | 6 | - | 3 | = | 0.667 |
| KC | …. | 4 | - | 5 | = | 0.444 |
| LV | … | 3 | - | 5 | = | 0.375 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 7 | - | 1 | = | 0.875 |
| WSH | … | 6 | - | 3 | = | 0.667 |
| DAL | … | 4 | - | 5 | = | 0.444 |
| NYG | … | 2 | - | 7 | = | 0.222 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 7 | - | 1 | = | 0.875 |
| GB | … | 5 | - | 3 | = | 0.625 |
| MIN | …. | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
| CHI | … | 2 | - | 6 | = | 0.250 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| TB | …. | 5 | - | 3 | = | 0.625 |
| ATL | … | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
| CAR | … | 3 | - | 6 | = | 0.333 |
| NO | …. | 1 | - | 8 | = | 0.111 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 6 | - | 2 | = | 0.750 |
| ARI | … | 5 | - | 3 | = | 0.625 |
| SEA | …. | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
| SF | … | 3 | - | 6 | = | 0.333 |
