Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 4-6...
-- No undefeateds remain...BUF-BAL-LAC-PHI-DET are all (5-1) tied for the best record in the NFL.
But one team has yet to win...the Browns are (0-6).
-- The Bills (5-1) lead the AFC East by one game over the semi-surprising Patriots (4-2).
-- The Ravens (5-1) have opened up a 2-game lead over the Steelers (3-2) in the AFC North.
-- A surprising leader in the AFC South...the Jags (3-3) lead a miserable AFC South by a half-a-game over HOU (2-3).
-- The Chargers (5-1) are not a total shock to see leading the AFC West, but there is a shock in the division...the Chiefs sit at (2-4), three games back of LAC.
-- The Eagles (5-1) lead the NFC East by a game over WSH (4-2) with Dallas hanging in at (3-3).
-- Detroit (5-1) opens up a 2-game lead over GB (3-2) and MIN (3-2) in the NFC North.
-- Tampa Bay (4-2) leads the NFC South by a game over a surprising Panthers (3-3) team.
-- The Rams (4-2) and Cardinals (4-2) are tied atop the NFC West, a game ahead of SEA (3-3) with the 49ers and their ‘easy schedule’ in last place at (2-4).
-- Tomorrow we play out Weeks 7-8-9.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| NE | …. | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| MIA | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| NYJ | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| PIT | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| CIN | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| CLE | … | 0 | - | 6 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| JAX | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| HOU | … | 2 | - | 3 | = | 0.400 |
| IND | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| TEN | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAC | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| DEN | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| KC | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| LV | …. | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| WSH | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| DAL | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| NYG | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| GB | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| MIN | …. | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| CHI | … | 1 | - | 4 | = | 0.200 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| TB | …. | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| CAR | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| ATL | …. | 2 | - | 3 | = | 0.400 |
| NO | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| ARI | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| SEA | …. | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| SF | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
