ChatGPT says: Ross Jacobs is a football analyst and mock draft expert associated with Fantasy Football Metrics (FFMetrics). He has produced several NFL mock drafts over the years.
In addition to his mock drafts, Jacobs has contributed scouting reports and analyses on various football prospects. Jacobs is active on social media, sharing his analyses and engaging with the football community. His work is recognized for its depth and insight into player evaluations and draft projections.
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1: Tennessee Titans - QB Cam Ward, Miami
There’s nothing original to say about this pick anymore. Tennessee has followed the script set out for them by the media and chosen their next QB because…everyone else seems to like him and says he should be the pick. They have even supposedly turned down a trade offer of three 1st round picks from the Saints.
I like Ward just fine, but that is obscene if true. Your team is in bad shape and won’t be fixed by a singular QB, much less one that shares some of the same bad habits that caused you to move on from your previous QB. Those multiple picks could be used to radically rebuild your team into a powerhouse over the next two or three years. If I was the owner of the Titans and my GM told me he turned that down I would fire him on the spot. Be that as it may, Ward is going to be the first overall selection in just over a week. Anything else would be the greatest shock in NFL draft history.
2: Cleveland Browns - CB/WR Travis Hunter
It’s seemed for a few weeks as if the Browns will ultimately pass on Shedeur Sanders. I still can’t totally write off that option, but it seems unlikely at this point. For a while Abdul Carter was the favorite, but recently Hunter has become the betting favorite for the pick instead. Everyone seems to be taking this development in stride, presumably because they love Hunter so much, but it’s setting off alarm bells for me.
The NFL loves pass rushers. Loves. They will take a pass rusher over even QBs if given half a chance. So, the fact that Cleveland seems to be moving off of Carter for a hybrid WR/CB, as great a player as he may be, is very, very unconventional and has me wondering if the foot injury Carter has been dealing with is ultimately a tiebreaker here. Could there be more wrong we don’t know about yet? I think that’s on the table and could cause Carter to fall just a bit.
Hunter, therefore, is in many ways the “safest” player in this class. He’s athletic, plays multiple important positions which gives you more chances for him to be good, and he’s popular and will sell jerseys. Nobody will criticize the Browns for taking him.
3: New York Giants - QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Yes, I’m back on the Sanders to the Giants train despite the constant narratives that they will pass him up in favor of Carter or Hunter…or maybe because of them. Ever since Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll came to power, the Giants have become a hotbed of false rumors leaking around the draft. In their very first draft in 2022 a report “leaked” that outright claimed the team didn’t like Thibodeaux because of his personality.
Note how specific the reason was for why they supposedly didn’t like him. It wasn’t vague like how these reports often are. And yet the team drafted him 5th overall anyways, notably with their first selection (they also had the 7th pick) even though they also wanted an offensive tackle and could lose him to the Panthers picking 6th.
Then last year reports surfaced that the Giants were “absolutely done” with Daniel Jones and would be targeting a QB in the first round of the 2024 draft.
And yet they passed on three QBs (Penix, McCarthy, Nix) for receiver Malik Nabers.
Now we’re getting reports claiming the Giants don’t like Shedeur because of the spotlight that follows him and his dad.
Gosh, there almost seems to be a pattern here…
And this in spite of the fact that the team has been to every single Colorado game this past year, was prepared to target Shedeur in the 2nd round last year if he came out, sent a massive contingent to the Colorado pro day, and all the multiple comments Shedeur has made about his desire to play in New York, the Giants themed cleats, playing against the Cowboys “soon”, etc. etc. etc. This player and team have been linked at the hip for over a year, and now suddenly everyone believes they are going to pass on him…why? Because a couple lousy reports that leaked from the team said so? They just outright tell us they don’t like him and we believe them? After all the other lies they’ve told the past few years?
No. In the words of a former president (these were his actual words), “Fool me once, shame on – shame on you. Fool me – you can’t get fooled again.” That said I may still change this back to Carter by draft day. It’s hard to go against the grain when smart people like Albert Breer are saying it’s unlikely Sanders even goes first round. Right now, though, I smell a rat, and it only takes one rat to make a pick.
4: New England Patriots - EDGE Abdul Carter, Penn St
And just like that the so-called best player in the draft falls to the Patriots at pick 4. The foot injury might be a factor, it’s hard to say without the medical reports teams get. If the injury is worse than we know it’s not impossible the Patriots could pass on him for offensive tackle Will Campbell. They need a left tackle more than they need another edge rusher. But assuming the foot is fine, Carter is the likely pick here should he fall past the Giants.
5: Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Will Campbell, LSU
If the Giants do indeed take Sanders at 3, the Jaguars will be praying for the Patriots to pass on Carter…because then they can easily trade the 5th pick to someone (Carolina?) interested in him. Jacksonville badly wants to trade down for more picks later in the draft, but they likely need Carter to be available for that dream to manifest.
If they can’t trade down I expect they’ll take Campbell if he’s available, and if he’s not it gets messy. There’s no real obvious choice at that point, contrary to the media narrative that Mason Graham is a lock for this pick. Graham is being massively overrated by the media, and he’s not even a great fit for what the Jaguars need. They do need a defensive lineman, but they are looking for a nose tackle, not a 3-technique penetrator. Kenneth Grant makes much more sense, and he is a possible target if they can trade down. I’m not sure they would take him at #5 however.
Other options would be Banks, Membou, and possibly Jalon Walker. Coen and Gladstone, smartly, want to build this team in the trenches, and despite all the off-season offensive line additions they could still use more help. Walker Little and Anton Harrison could easily be improved upon. Banks in particular intrigues me here. The media is lower on him, but I think the NFL will like his consistent play for a big program over three years and his outstanding character.
6: Las Vegas Raiders - LB Jalon Walker, Georgia
I’ve had Jeanty here since the beginning of the process, but I’m backing off of that now…and for a player I’ve repeatedly bashed along the way. It’s easy to draw the Jeanty connection to Pete Carroll, but this isn’t a team ready to take a RB at #6. They have so many other needs to address first. Jeanty is still possible, but I suspect the Raiders will look to take a RB in round 2 or 3, maybe Judkins since he fits Carroll’s style and OC Chip Kelly worked with him at Ohio St last year.
At this pick though, I think they might go with Walker…as much as it pains me to say it. I still firmly believe Walker is one of the most overrated players in this draft. He’s very small to be a full-time edge rusher and he’s not good at traditional off-ball linebacker duties. He’s not good in coverage and not great against the run. In fact, he’s a better blitzer than he is a pure edge rusher as well.
But all that matters when it comes to projecting the draft is what teams think, not necessarily what the reality is, and it seems as if a few teams have convinced themselves he’s a great player. Not everyone mind you, opinions are far more split on Walker than the media would have you believe, but I think Carroll will be attracted to Walker’s leadership and the violent way he plays.
If Campbell is available he might be the pick as the team would love to upgrade their offensive line and Kolton Miller’s contract is up next year.
7: New York Jets - DT Mason Graham, Michigan
I struggle to put Graham here for a number of reasons. Firstly, the media has made him the single most overrated prospect in this entire class. He’s just not as disruptive as he’s being made out to be. He’s also undersized with short arms and he’s out of shape which is a consequence of known work ethic issues.
But I have no confidence that Aaron Glenn and the new GM will see through these obvious issues. It’s the Jets after all. They are going to fall for the sucker’s bet and in this case that means buying into the media’s nonsense. They’ll believe they are getting “the steal of the draft at #7.” Graham will pair with Quinnen Williams to become the most devastating defensive tackle duo in the league! The story writes itself.
If they do somehow find the nerves to pass on Graham, Tyler Warren seems to be the apple of their eye.
8: Carolina Panthers - EDGE Mykel Williams, Georgia
I don’t feel good about this pick at all. Williams is not particularly athletic and he’s not productive as a pass rusher. He’s a good run defender, but you don’t take run stoppers in the top 10. Part of this is the overall weakness of this class, and part of it is his excuse that he was supposedly injured all of last year. The thinking goes that “he was pretty good last year but if he was playing through an injury he might be even better when he’s healthy!” Of course, that ignores that he was healthy enough to work out at the combine and still put up very average numbers. But then making a terrible pick in the top 10 is something the Panthers are very good at, so maybe it’s perfect after all.
9: New Orleans Saints - QB Jaxson Dart, Mississippi
I’m fighting the urge to puke even as I type this. I don’t care what anyone thinks of Shedeur, if the Saints take Dart at #9 that has to be the most egregious pick by default. He’s simply not that caliber of player and shouldn’t even be a first-round pick. And yet the desperation for functional QB play is so high that anyone bearing even a passing resemblance to a starting QB is likely to be drafted highly these days.
The Saints were already prepared to draft a QB this year because it’s been known within the building that Derek Carr was only still around because of cap reasons, but now that Carr’s season is in jeopardy the Saints can’t afford to pass on any QB they believe can be a starter. Well, they could (and should), and if I was in charge I would start selling off assets, but that’s not how NFL teams tend to operate, so I suspect Dart will be the pick if Sanders is already off the board.
If Sanders is available he’s very likely to be the pick, but if the team does somehow pass on both there’s no telling what other position they might take. Armand Membou would be my guess, but Tyler Warren is the media favorite. I just don’t see them passing on a possible starting QB for a TE.
10: Chicago Bears - RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise St
It’s possible the Bears can sit tight and still land their most coveted player at 10, but they might get antsy and trade up despite the obvious issue with giving up more capital for a RB. It depends how closely they have Jeanty and Hampton rated. But I see a path for them to stay patient and still land Ben Johnson’s dream selection. If Jeanty lands with Chicago he’s going to be a top 2 or 3 pick in redraft this year.
11: San Francisco 49ers - OT Armand Membou, Missouri
I’ve had a defensive lineman (ideally tackle but possibly edge rusher) to the 49ers in every mock so far, and while I believe that’s where the team would prefer to go with their first pick, I’m not sure they’ll have anyone graded highly enough for this pick. It depends on what they think of Kenneth Grant. I’ve heard the league likes him a lot more than the media, so he’s definitely a name to watch here.
If it’s not a defensive lineman though, perhaps Shanahan will finally draft the offensive tackle fans have been begging for? Membou gets a lot of comparisons to Trent Williams because of his athleticism, but Membou has some issues on tape in my opinion. Maybe he gets to that level someday, but he’s not there yet and needs to iron out some technical flaws. He’s a wonderful zone blocker for Shanahan’s offense though, and he could slide right into the right tackle spot day one and possibly take over for Trent on the left when he retires. That could even be this year after the draft. Joe Staley held off announcing his retirement until after the draft so that the 49ers could trade for his replacement, Williams, without alerting the league to their desperation for a tackle.
12: Dallas Cowboys - WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
Every year a few select players get eviscerated in the media for seemingly no reason at all, and this year one of those players is McMillan. At first I was hearing the basic “he’s too slow and doesn’t separate” nonsense (which never seemed to stop Mike Evans or Drake London), but recently I’ve begun to hear him compared to RC’s favorite player of all time (from their Twitter feud because of RC insulting his talents), DeVante Parker which is absolutely nuts and a complete insult to McMillan. Parker was soft and refused to go over the middle. He preferred to play jump balls deep and outside away from traffic. McMillan can definitely play that style when it suits him, but he does plenty of dirty work over the middle and catches everything thrown his way. It’s a nonsense comparison.
It’s crazy that Dallas can sit tight at pick 12 and possibly get the best receiver in this draft, but that’s what happens when bad teams waste picks on guys like Graham. Other options here would be one of the tackles or Will Johnson.
13: Miami Dolphins - TE Tyler Warren, Penn St
I know, I know, this doesn’t make any sense right? The Dolphins have so many other needs. Why on earth would they take a tight end when they need starters on the defensive line and in the secondary?
Well, that’s not how teams think. They usually aren’t interested in just filling holes to fill them. They try to stick to their holy draft grades no matter what. And Warren is going to grade very highly for many teams because he’s so well rounded and has great football character to boot. In addition, the Dolphins are looking for a bigger bodied receiver (they almost took Brian Thomas last year) to complement their small, speed guys, specifically in the redzone where they had a lot of issues in 2024.
The chalk position for the Dolphins is offensive line, but I don’t view that as particularly likely. They have their two starting tackles, and teams generally don’t take guards this highly. They can find interior starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. A defensive lineman or defensive back is more likely, but I don’t think any of them will grade as highly as Warren.
14: Indianapolis Colts - LB Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
Warren goes just one pick before Indy and their hopes are dashed. Of course, many drafts simply slot Colston Loveland here if Warren is gone, but that doesn’t seem likely to me. Warren is a much better blocker than Loveland and a much better fit for the scheme Steichen runs. What else could they look for?
How about an athletic inside linebacker to replace EJ Speed? Campbell is just the kind of high-level athlete Chris Ballard covets. He would be their day-one starter inside and also add some pass rushing juice on third downs.
15: Atlanta Falcons - OT Kelvin Banks, Texas
This pick would be guaranteed to set off every Falcons fan…a yearly occurrence in Atlanta! The fans badly, desperately want a first-round edge rusher, and that is a very real possibility here, but the team will stubbornly stick to their board and might have Banks rated higher than any of the available edge rushers at this spot. They also had a quiet, private workout with Banks which has been a pattern with many of their recent first round picks. He could play guard in year one, and replace right tackle Kaleb McGary, who will be 31 next year and in the final year of his contract, in 2026. McGary is a good run blocker but shaky in pass protection and with Penix as the starting QB now, the right tackle is his blind side protector.
16: Arizona Cardinals - EDGE James Pearce, Tennessee
The Cardinals are looking to take a trench player or a cornerback with this selection. Will Johnson is still on the board and has some similarities to Darius Slay who Jonathan Gannon coached in Philly, but I think the preference is for a lineman on either side of the ball if possible.
Pearce has fallen in many mock drafts due to his linear rush style and some reported character concerns, but, silly as it sounds, running a 4.47 40 yard dash will get many teams to overlook that.
17: Cincinnati Bengals - S Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
Many of the Bengals beat writers are expecting a defensive lineman with this pick, and while I understand the thinking I’m leaning another direction right now. First, I’m not sure any of the defensive tackles will grade highly enough for this slot (the media loves Walter Nolen but most teams are more lukewarm on him), and the team drafted two young tackles last year. They could take an end like Mykel Williams if he is somehow still on the board. But I know the team is also looking to upgrade on safety Geno Stone, and it just so happens there is a highly rated safety that fits all of the criteria the Bengals like…
Emmanwori played in the SEC, is highly athletic, productive, a team captain, and played through injuries. Those are all boxes the Bengals like to check off in the first round and Emmanwori has them all.
18: Seattle Seahawks - CB Will Johnson, Michigan
Almost every mock out there puts an offensive lineman here, usually a guard or center like Tyler Booker or Grey Zabel. That seems extraordinarily unlikely to me. Mocking the Seahawks an interior lineman has been an annual exercise for the past ten years, and almost every single year it doesn’t happen (they’ve gone OL 1st-round twice the past decade). So why does anyone think this year will be any different? Clearly they do not value interior linemen that highly. I’ve also seen receiver here often which also doesn’t make sense to me. No rookie is starting in Kubiak’s new run-heavy offense with JSN and Kupp around, so I expect a receiver pick could come a few rounds later.
Where could the team look instead? Edge rusher makes sense as several of their guys have contracts coming up soon, but like the past few picks, I don’t know if there’s a scheme fit that also grades highly enough here. They would love an offensive tackle as insurance for Abraham Lucas, but they will likely all be gone as well. Colston Loveland could be a replacement for Noah Fant, and he was recruited to Michigan by Jay Harbaugh, Seattle’s special teams coordinator.
But they could also use an outside corner, and Will Johnson is available. He didn’t arrive at Michigan until Mike Macdonald left, but I’m sure Macdonald still has connections there as well as the previously mentioned Jay Harbaugh. I didn’t previously think Johnson could slip this far, but a combination of a few things makes it possible, the repeated injuries that cut his season short and prevented him from working out so far this spring, his lack of elite long speed, and some concerns with his tackling physicality.
19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College
Almost everyone mocks Jihaad Campbell here, and it makes sense, but it also assumes Campbell is going to get past a number of different teams that could be interested in him. He’s one of the cleaner prospects in this draft from an NFL perspective though, so I imagine he might go much higher than is currently expected.
If Campbell is off the board, Tampa is likely to be looking for either a corner or an edge rusher. Jason Licht tends to prefer very big, very fast corners and Will Johnson just got snagged one pick before them. I don’t believe they will be as high on Jahdae Barron. A speedy receiver like Matthew Golden could intrigue them, but ultimately they would prefer this pick be on the defensive side and Ezeiruaku fits exactly what Todd Bowles wants at outside linebacker. He’s smart, quick, productive, physical, and he can drop into coverage. They might even be able to trade back a bit before taking him.
20: Denver Broncos - RB Omarion Hampton, North Carolina
Sean Payton covets a three down RB badly, and even though it seems to be an open secret that he wants Hampton, he might be able to sit tight and get the guy he wants at his original pick. If Hampton is gone Payton might pivot to one of the Ohio St guys or maybe a different position altogether. Colston Loveland would surprise no one even though the team just signed Evan Engram.
21: Pittsburgh Steelers - DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Defensive line has been the obvious hole for the Steelers and the most obvious choice for this pick for a while, but until recently the Steelers hadn’t shown as much interest in Harmon as they usually do. They skipped his pro day, which is quite unusual for them, but they recently brought him in for a top 30 visit so we know they are thinking about it.
I love Harmon the player and the first time I watched him I immediately compared him to Steelers great Cam Heyward. Harmon himself even said he models his game after Heyward. It simply makes too much sense across the board. Any other pick at this point would greatly surprise me…assuming Shedeur is already gone.
22: Los Angeles Chargers - DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan
Fans want a tight end or another receiver here, but it’s worth stressing that Jim Harbaugh does not build his teams that way. He wants a run game and a stout defense first, second, and third. Everything else is an afterthought. Despite their depth at defensive back, I think Harbaugh will consider Jahdae Barron here strongly. Barron has the production, toughness, and versatility Harbaugh craves.
But with his former nose tackle at Michigan still on the board, that’s too good to pass up, especially when defensive line is an obvious need of this team. My only question is whether Grant will still be on the board at this point. He’s coveted by some teams as the top run stopper with upside to be a better pass rusher above even his teammate Mason Graham.
23: Green Bay Packers - DE Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
The Packers love them some big, athletic, prototypical edge rushers (Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness), and Stewart certainly fits in that same mold at 6’5”/267 lbs. They will be primarily looking at edge rushers and defensive linemen in the first round this year. Stewart is exactly the kind of player they love on the edge.
It’s common to see Stewart mocked in the top 15, often as high as #8 to the Panthers, and while that’s certainly a possibility, Stewart is extremely raw as a player and needs a ton of work before he’ll resemble anything close to a good player. The ceiling is high but the floor is very, very low, so I imagine he might go a bit later in the first round than is commonly thought.
His situation reminds me a bit of Montez Sweat when he came out. Sweat was another freak athlete running an off-the-charts 4.41 40-yard dash at 260 lbs, and yet he lasted until pick 26 because of some kinks in his game that needed to be worked out. Stewart might experience something similar.
If the Packers don’t take a defensive lineman here, a cornerback like Trey Amos makes some sense, or a speedy receiver like Matthew Golden.
24: Minnesota Vikings - OT Josh Conerly, Oregon
It doesn’t seem like anyone has a clue what Minnesota is up to in the first round. Cornerback and safety are the most common projections, and the logic certainly makes sense. I’m just not sure such a smart front office would blow a first-round pick on a safety. Corner they would, but it’s not that big a need. Instead, I’m going with a tackle. Christian Darrisaw tore his knee up and there’s no guarantee how fast he’ll recover. They need insurance in case he’s not ready to go, and Conerly can give them that. If Darrisaw is healthy to start the season then Conerly can slide inside to guard where Minnesota could still use an upgrade even after spending heavily in free agency.
25: Houston Texans - WR Matthew Golden, Texas
Obviously an offensive lineman is going to be the pick here for nearly everyone, and that certainly makes a lot of sense. But the team also needs a WR opposite of Nico Collins after the Tank Dell injury and losing Stefon Diggs in free agency. Specifically, they want a speed receiver to compliment Collins. Golden tested out of this world although that speed doesn’t show up the same way on tape.
26: Los Angeles Rams - TE Colston Loveland, Michigan
Sean McVay tried to trade up for Brock Bowers last year and Dalton Kincaid the year before. He clearly wants a mismatch TE to expand his passing game and compliment his receivers. Several evaluators have Loveland ranked much higher than this, and it might come in a trade up scenario, but Loveland isn’t a great blocker and that usually causes tight ends to slip a little on top of being a non-premium position. Loveland could go later than many people think and fall right into McVay’s hands.
27: Baltimore Ravens - OG Tyler Booker, Alabama
Baltimore loves to sit tight in the draft and let solid prospects fall to them for silly reasons. Booker is a top 15 player for many NFL teams but could slide due to being a pure guard with no versatility to play tackle and bad testing at the Combine. The Ravens put very little stock in either of those things and instead value the player for his play on the field. They’ll love the power and nastiness that Booker attacks defensive linemen with. He would also be a great fit with the Lions.
28: Detroit Lions - OG/OC Grey Zabel
You never know what to expect from the Lions in the draft. They could literally go with any position, and it wouldn’t surprise me. However, their offensive line is starting to get older, especially the interior of the line. That’s the core of their team and they know it, so I fully expect reinforcements this year. Zabel is just the kind of smart, physical, versatile player that Dan Campbell will love.
29: Washington Commanders - CB Trey Amos, Mississippi
Like most of the teams picking late in the first round, the Commanders could go a number of different directions. How about another long, fast corner for Dan Quinn’s defense?
It might be a little surprising that Amos could come off the board before Jahdae Barron who I’ve seen mocked as high as number 13 to the Dolphins, but Barron is on the small side with suspect play speed and might be viewed as purely a nickel corner by much of the league. Amos has the requisite height, weight, speed factors that teams love to take early.
30: Buffalo Bills - CB Jahdae Barron, Texas
I already mentioned that Barron could slide due to being undersized and playing slower than his 40-time, but Buffalo isn’t worried about that. He’s a dream pick for them in the mold of Tre’Davious White. This pick is likely to come down to either a corner or a defensive lineman, specifically a defensive tackle. Other options include Trey Amos, Maxwell Hairston, and Derrick Harmon.
31: Kansas City Chiefs - TE Elijah Arroyo, Miami
Spicy! It’s very uncommon to see Arroyo mocked in the first round, but that’s exactly where I expect him to go provided his medicals check out. The guy is nearly un-coverable when he’s healthy and would provide a nice boost to a passing attack that hasn’t been the same since Tyreek Hill left town. He recorded a GPS time of 21.8 MPH last year which was bested by only 6 NFL(!) players in 2024. Teams do not pass on 250 lb guys that run that fast.
Travis Kelce is aging rapidly, Noah Gray is nice but not a real starting TE, and Jared Wiley did absolutely nothing as a rookie. Arroyo would instantly add some juice and take over for Kelce when he retires. This pick reminds me a lot of the 2019 draft when the Chiefs took Clyde Edwards-Helaire coming off a Superbowl victory when a first round RB wasn’t on the radar for anyone.
32: Philadelphia Eagles - DT Tyleik Williams, Ohio St
Tyleik over Walter Nolen?! Yes, I definitely think it’s possible. It might even be the more likely scenario. There are a lot of evaluators that really love Nolen, but there are some issues with him. He’s explosive into contact but doesn’t have any moves or a plan of attack, he’s not a crazy athlete, he gets destroyed in the run game too often, he only has one good year of tape, and there are some character concerns. That’s the profile of a 2nd round pick.
Tyleik has none of those issues. He’s much bigger than Nolen, just as fast and explosive, good with his hands, can hold his ground in the run game, and he’s a great guy and hard worker too. The only thing Nolen gives you over Tyleik is a theoretical higher pass rush, but even that is not guaranteed.
An edge rusher is the usual pick here for Philly, but I think defensive tackle is more likely. For one, the Eagles only have 4 DTs on the roster right now and there are more snaps available there in a rotation than on the edge. They also may not be able to pay Jordan Davis $20+ million on his next contract because they still have to shell out so much for Jalen Carter. It’s also more likely that a good defensive tackle is available here than a good edge rusher.
