RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 3/17-3/23

: R.C. Fischer; FreeView; 23 March 2025

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

SUN 3/23

(7:56amET)

-- So, my QB bingo card predictions are falling apart to end the week...

Aaron Rodgers not going to Minnesota...not yet anyway. Probably not ever, now.

Jameis Winston, not Russ (or Rodgers) to NYG. Unlikely the Giants can trade up to the #1 overall. Most likely, the Giants starting QB for 2025 Week 1 is gonna be Jameis Winston. I don’t think Winston would have signed here if he wasn’t getting a vibe that he could start -- and I think that’s Winston’s primary motivation...one more chance to start. He can get backup deals for the rest of his life, but a shot to be a starter and have a nice season and be in-line for one of those 3-year deals for $50M+, Like the Geno’s and Darnold’s, etc. -- he can only get that dream IF he is a starter somewhere, somehow.

It’s now possible Russell Wilson is gonna get backed into a corner of just sitting out for a bit...like Rodgers. Russ may have to wait to see what develops in August/September. I think Cleveland is hoping for Kirk Cousins. The Steelers will show you how smart they are...they’re gonna go out and win with Mason Rudolph. I’m only partly joking there. I think the Steelers are in the lead for Aaron Rodgers now...you don’t meet with a team in person for 6 hours if you’re not serious about signing there...and if you know the Vikings situation is fading away. And Rodgers can’t have his dream spot (MIN), so now it’s about money extraction mode. One more heist...

But nothing would shock me right now/this week with Russ-Rodgers-Cousins and CLE-PIT-MIN.

How do I FF-feel about Winston to NYG? I like it. A very good chance to start the season and seize the day/season. NYG is potentially getting backed into having to take Shedeur Sanders if Travis Hunter is not available at #3...so, Winston will start in that situation...with the fans and media and Dad Sanders putting all kinds of pressure on NYG every week to start Shedeur. I like Winston for FF 2025 way better if NYG does not get the circus/shadow Shedeur.

Winston has cleaned his act up over the years...almost a 180. I was watching his CLE-PIT TNF snow game from 2024 yesterday...Winston was so good in that game. And Winston is a leader. If I were an NFL GM and I could not get Burrow-Mahomes, etc., and I was trying to get a mid-range free agent QB, I want the leaders of men options, hopefully with talent...I’d want to sign Rodgers #1 (if I felt he was serious about playing), then Winston my #2 option over Russ, Darnold, Dan Jones, et. al.

That PIT-CLE Wk12 TNF game abbreviated version: https://youtu.be/jpSOPbVmdgc?si=-VGPv1gRw6G-wwE4

The way the field looked at kickoff and the 1st-half...and then what it looked like in the 2nd-half was bonkers.

-- *TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

And note... The ‘all rookies’ tournament/prize contest ‘Origins’ closes April 24th...it’s a pre-Draft contest/battle of rookie scouting skills, so a great opportunity to try and take advantage using your rookie research.

More FastDraft details below on the daily notes.

-- TV Series ‘March Madness’...

(same intro) OK, here we go...my personal TV series March Madness (16 teams/shows). I’m gonna pit two of these shows against each other every day until we get down to the final one left standing that will lay claim to BEST TV SERIES I’VE EVER WATCHED!

What am I basing my ‘choices’/the winners on? Lots of things...how good the show was/how good I remember it (so recency bias is gonna play a factor, even if I don’t want it to)...the acting, the writing/dialogue...the way it was filmed...would I watch it again and enjoy it just the same or maybe even more (and on some of them I have watched episodes or the series again in recent years).

--------------------

OK, matchup #3...and I threw out the window the notion of doing random matchups and I just went ahead and generated my own matchups because there were so many slick, poetic matchups of TV Series to pit against each other that make a ton of sense why they are connected to face each other.

...like this matchup #3: Breaking Bad vs. Ozark.

Breaking Bad is obviously iconic and needs no explanation why it is here. But the reason I pitted Ozark against BB was -- I was ‘sold’ Ozark as ‘a poor man’s Breaking Bad’...and a ‘Breaking Bad rip-off’...and a ‘hey, if you liked Breaking Bad you will also like Ozark’. So, it’s only fitting they meet up in this tournament.

I was prepared to not like Ozark, when I gave it a shot last year...because comparing anything to Breaking Bad seemed like a ‘kiss of death’, but I gotta say...Ozark was an excellent series. Shocking (to me) how good it was. But, sadly, for Ozark...I gotta go with Breaking Bad here. Ozark deserves a better fate, maybe, in this tourney...but the Breaking Bad machine takes out its first victim.

Still remaining to ‘play’ in the tournament:

24, Better Call Saul, Psych, Severance, Squid Game

Sopranos, Stranger Things, Suits, The Office (U.S), This Is Us

On to the Elite 8: Curb Your Enthusiasm, The Chosen, Breaking Bad

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause for the next week while I have to travel some in the next week. I’ll catch up to them midweek range when I’m fully back and not having to turn around and leave again. A crazy week this week.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated this past Friday 3/21. Next update planned for late this week.

*IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April with the top 50+ rookies at the debut, working towards 100+ IDP rookies there as well.

*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades (1.0 versions) will continue to post over the next few weeks...grading on the prospects we have enough information to run the first wave of scouting model grades. Those boards will be updated daily/weekly up into the NFL Draft, and post-Draft...with more data coming in over the summer and additionally re-graded after we scout players in the preseason.

***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

-- Sign up for the App as if you’re brand new to FFM...it’s a separate ‘thing’/brain from the site. You can use your same exact username/password signing up for the App, to keep it easy for you to remember.

-- Enable the App notifications to get a notification sent to your device when key reports are posted, and/or (especially) in-season when we get inside info/intel from sources before anyone else and it might be news we all need to FF-act on quickly before the world finds out.

-- App tip #1 (FYI): Upper Left (three lines) on App home page, click it, then click profile, then click ‘Push notifications’ – and you’ll see all the alerts we’ve sent in chronological order. App tip #2 (FYI)...if you see things posted but you got no device notification, but you are enabled for notifications…go to your phone’s ‘Settings’>Apps>FFM App>Click the Notifications off then on…like a reboot. I don't know why this works but it does to kick the phone back into business.

SAT 3/22

(6:10amET)

-- I had a great question emailed to me yesterday from a subscriber, and I’m going to share that question and expand on answer here...but before I do that, I just want to say -- I welcome any questions about anything be it a football item, or an FF trade you’re looking at, to an error you see on the website, to a wondering where something is located. I answer my emails as fast as I can...I welcome the emails so I can explain or correct or look into something/anything. We’re not ‘holy’. This is all our site...I’m trying to help make everyone profitable on Fantasy or Sportsbook betting, etc. You help me a lot of the time with your questions or players you think I should look at, etc.

Email me direct (email below) with any football items. Use the customer service email for customer service things, like your account, web issues, etc. We get almost no emails to customer service because there are rare technical issues...so when I see an email come through to the customer service email I have a mini-heart attack until I read and see it is a good football question.

Email me direct at rc4metics and that is a gmail address, and I’m not typing it out as a normal email here so that it is not lifted by bots and then spammed by nonsense.

Ok, the question was: Why are my scouting grades on a player/s one way, then in a Dynasty top 600 (for an example) the players are ranked differently?

To put an example on it...we have Ollie Gordon scouted as a better player/prospect/RB talent than Quinshon Judkins. BUT in the Dynasty top 600 we have Judkins ranked much higher than Ollie. Why? How can that be?

My scouting grades, our computer model grades on a prospect’s talent are what we really feel the talent of that player is from our scouting and analytics -- cutting out the mainstream noise nor guessing what the NFL future holds for that player. I’m simply grading them as a prospect talent in MY book...and the Computer’s book.

But when we do the top 600 Dynasty valuations, it’s an algorithm designed to capture a real world value -- yes, my scouting grade, the computer’s scouting grade are in there and are a big part of the valuations...but I cannot discard the assumptions and impact of where a player will likely be drafted...and by virtue of their draft status I have to assume they will be afforded quicker, better NFL opportunities, which effects their real FF value.

Quinshon Judkins is going to be drafted from around pick #20 to pick #50...and that will be a team drafting him with gusto, with purpose -- so, he’s gonna get to play right away and get many chances to succeed. Ollie Gordon is likely to be drafted day three of the draft, battle to even make the roster, start out as a backup and will likely not get the chance to shine until someone above him gets hurt. I have to take all factors into consideration setting the Dynasty top 600.

I despise Marvin Harrison...I despise the fraud that was perpetrated on the public by the football media. I didn’t believe he was even in the top 5 most talented WRs in the 2024 NFL Draft and I was right) but last year I had him as the #1 overall Dynasty Rookie Draft prospect in DRDs...but I didn’t think he was close to the best player. I did it because Marv was gonna get a mega ‘opportunity’ forever AND the public placed a high value on him. You HAD to take Harrison 1.01 and try to trade him, or the 1.01 DRD pick for the moon...it was the prudent path to consider. I wanted Malik Nabers as my #1, but I knew Harrison held 3x the trade value that Malik did out of the gates...so I often traded the 1.01 pick and fell to 1.02 or 1.03 (for Nabers)...or traded my drafted Marv to the new Nabers owner...a deal for Nabers + things for Marv.

So, scouting grades are different Dynasty Top 600 valuations/rankings are different than Best Ball rankings/projections will be different than our specific Dynasty Rookie Draft ranking/valuation models (that will debut AFTER the NFL Draft, when we know what team they are on)...but the Dynasty top 600 has our best estimates of where the DRD rankings should be right now). Every format theory/logic/economy is a little different, and we account for that.

Hopefully, that makes some sense.

-- Speaking of Quinshon Judkins...

On my to-do list the next few days/week is doing a follow-up scouting report on Judkins...a 2.0 version, a re-look. I did NOT see that (great) Combine set of data from Quinshon coming. I want to re-look at his tape/case to see if I made some error or bias the first time around.

FYI

-- *TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) FOR NEW SIGN UPS...The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter (and for ALL 50 states) contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time. Prize money is in the form of promo dollars to use on future contests.

More FastDraft details below on the daily notes.

-- TV Series ‘March Madness’...

--------------------

Yesterday, we had the first matchup of the tournament...and Curb Your Enthusiasm narrowly defeated Seinfeld. It was a cherry-picked, manipulated matchup by the committee (me) because I was so delighted with the thought of pitting them against each other. And today, I got another ‘meta’ matchup idea. Polar opposites, in every way, collide!

The (now Amazon) faith-based series on adult years of Jesus Christ and his disciples time on earth, The Chosen vs. the sleeper hit of my summer 2024, CBS’s Evil...a show about a team of investigators hired by the Catholic church to investigate the ‘possession’ and ‘demonic’ claims by people who have turned to the church for help, which devolves into quite the on-going battle of good and evil with a lot of mildly scary ‘evil’ on display, not grotesque horror...no, it’s more of a cleverly presented ‘evil’ that might make you have a bad night’s sleep because of the kinda ‘realism’ of it all. It has an ‘X Files’ kind of vibe with clever plots and a running conflict throughout the show.

I was hooked into the show Evil 2-3 minutes into the first episode...a big difference from my pre-concerns with The Chosen, which I feared was gonna be another lame attempt at media by Christian-based content makers...and the first episode was so boring to me that I almost gave up on it right away.

Evil was excellent right off the bat and held up for 2-3 seasons but then started to fade. They lost funding/backing for the show and the plug was pulled on it a year or two ago...and I think they were caught off guard trying to end it in a hurry on a limited budget. It ended weak.

The Chosen started slow for 1-2 episodes and then took off. A show/series that was never supposed to be...a series funded by a public ‘go fund me’ type backing to get it off the ground, no major network or producers would touch it...then it was so good and got such a following that the upcoming season was locked up by Amazon.

Evil was very entertaining, for sure...but The Chosen went from a crowdfunded, really solid season one effort to a very well-funded piece of art unfolding (and still going). I describe The Chosen to people as...it’s the story of Jesus portrayed in the best way any Christian TV series was ever done/made and it kind of has a touch of that Breaking Bad/Better Call Saul vibe and presentation, just with the story of Jesus and his day-to-day interactions. This show keeps getting better with time and funding.

Evil was very entertaining and captivating for most of the series. But The Chosen is more a work of art and only gets better...I think even an agnostic watcher might enjoy the historical vibe of The Chosen, but a Christian watcher of it will be brought to tears and inspiration because it is so wonderfully done, a great vision/interpretation on the bible’s words/descriptions of things that went on.

So, this one is an easy call... The Chosen defeats Evil, which is poetic.

Still remaining to ‘play’ in the tournament:

24, Breaking Bad, Better Call Saul, Ozark, Psych, Severance, Squid Game

Sopranos, Stranger Things, Suits, The Office (U.S), This Is Us

On to the Elite 8: Curb Your Enthusiasm, The Chosen

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos will be on pause for the next week while I have to travel some in the next week. I’ll catch up to them midweek range when I’m fully back not having to turn around and leave again.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty updated Friday. Next update planned for late next week.

*IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April with the top 50+ rookies at the debut, working towards 100+ rookies there as well.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

FRI 3/21

(7:13amET)

-- Our latest Dynasty top 600 rankings are going to be posted today. A question that was posed to me yesterday about our QB valuations -- Why are our Dynasty QB valuations so high/why do we value the QBs, especially the top QBs so highly?

Two thoughts immediately come to mind...

1) Depending upon the scoring system, especially the ones that are QB-friendly (6pts pass TD, and if you have bonus scoring), the QBs are worth more when their scoring is up...and changes even more when QB-friendly scoring is paired with the other positions scoring are down (down to half-PPR, then non-PPR).

In leagues that are non-PPR (which should be a crime/banished league type) and the QBs are getting 6pts per pass TD...the QBs rule, thus their extreme value. We are reading into our ‘math’ the scoring potential for the different scoring systems and placing values on that...which should be obvious, but I am surprised how many FF rankings I see out in the world where the QBs are lumped into a certain box, and they cannot get the valuations they are mathematically due.

...much less SuperFlex/2 QB...where the QBs are simply the most valuable thing there is, I don’t care what other non-QB player we’re talking about by comparison.

2) Quite simply... The QBs deserve more valuation in this era because they are the most immune to this talent surge coming from the college ranks.

Happening right now, and ever-increasing over the next 1-2-3 years...every backfield is gonna have two ‘#1’ RB talents, and many with a great ‘#1’ RB potential as their #3 RB. Like the current Tampa Bay RB depth chart. There will soon be nowhere to hide from the competition on an NFL depth chart for even the likes of Saquon and Bijan, etc. All NFL backfields will soon be designed to be an RBBC, a duo approach, a rotation based on skill sets matching the situations.

You never know when your key RB’s team is gonna draft a great RB and introduce risk to touches at various levels of risk...all the way up to getting surpassed by a talented rookie.

Jalen Hurts (example) doesn’t have to worry about Philly drafting a QB this year who will then split, to whatever degree, throws and rushes with him every game. The top QBs have no risk of getting their FF valuations/outputs blown up after this year’s draft...or next year’s draft, etc.

And while this year’s RB class is overloaded with talent...this year’s QB class may not have even one QB who really makes a dent in the FF game...or maybe ‘just one’, at the maximum.

And soon...we’re gonna have the same issue with the WRs as there is with the RBs. It’s already happening. It used to be that there were like 5-10 total WRs worth a crap in the NFL and all the other WRs were fillers (like about 10+ years ago). Soon, every team is gonna have one quality #1 WR (we’re almost there now), some will have two #1 WRs (we’re getting there now and will be overloaded in about two more drafts)...eventually all teams will have a great 1-2 WR punch...working towards teams having three #1 WR talents working together. Imagine if the Steelers had a better QB and O-Line and offensive coaching staff and a dome to work with featuring the WR trio of Pickens-Metcalf-Roman Wilson!

Imagine the wreckage for Dynasty valuations for two specific WRs if Jacksonville drafts Tet McMillan.

But I have absolutely no worries about where Jayden Daniels will be in two years, but I don’t know who Puka Nacua’s QB will be in two years...or what team he will be on, potentially.

You have to account for the power of the untouchable, unquestionable QBs who consistently produce at a high-level and will not have their throws and rushing cut by 25% or in half by a great QB suddenly drafted onto their roster. There is value in that fact, that safety/security.

-- OK, here we go...my personal TV series March Madness (16 teams/shows). I’m gonna pit two of these shows against each other every day until we get down to the final one left standing that will lay claim to BEST TV SERIES I’VE EVER WATCHED!

And to kick us off...and I’m so delighted with this first matchup...I know I said that I would do random matchups with minor intervention...BUT I am the tournament committee, and I think it’s only appropriate to make the first matchup of the entire tournament: Seinfeld vs. Curb Your Enthusiasm!

And do you know what I’m stuck on thinking about this matchup? Tell me how ‘meta’ my thought process is here...

My first reaction was definitely ‘Curb’. It has ‘recency’ going for it. I watch some Seinfeld episodes or YouTube clips of the show from time-to-time, and Seinfeld is still funny -- but it can feel outdated...which is unfair for this contest (holding ‘time’ against it). But the ‘meta’ thing that hit me was: Curb was great because of Larry David. Seinfeld was great, to me, because of (primarily) George Constanza. And George Costanza was acting as Larry David in Seinfeld, George was 100% based on Larry David. Curb is essentially the extended life of George Costanza, you could say, but it’s Larry David playing ‘himself’ in Curb. Seinfeld’s goodness has a lot to do with George/the ‘real-life’ young Larry David. Curb is the ‘real-life’ old Larry David.

What would have happened if Larry David played George/himself in the original Seinfeld?

Wasn’t Jason Alexander a better version of Larry David, as ‘George’? No one could play that like Jason Alexander did...not even the actual person (Larry David) himself.

I’m sitting here debating -- did I enjoy Larry David being Larry David (Curb) more than Jason Alexander being Larry David, as George (Seinfeld). I think Jason Alexander was a better Larry David than Larry David being Larry David...Jason Alexander created a version of Larry David that may be the single most iconic TV character of all time, with lines/dialogue written by...Larry David!

You thought the premise of Severance was bonkers...

As great as Seinfeld was, as great as the cast was...Curb Your Enthusiasm was just so well-done overall, especially that one season where Larry opened up a coffee shop next door to another coffee shop just to ruin that coffee shop’s business because he was mad at the store owner for something trivial...that whole season, the whole running thread of the story to the finale of that season...so-so-so good, such great writing and story continuity.

I give the slightest nod to Larry David! The Larry David in Curb...Curb Your Enthusiasm rolls on to my Elite 8!

Still remaining in the tournament:

24, Breaking Bad, Better Call Saul,

Evil (the CBS/Paramount+ series)

Ozark, Psych, Severance, Squid Game

Sopranos, Stranger Things, Suits, The Chosen

The Office (U.S), This Is Us

On to the Elite 8: Curb Your Enthusiasm

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today.

*Daily Dynasty Briefing video

*Another positional ranking/grades are scheduled to be posted today...the one supposed to post yesterday, and the day before. Got delayed by other items.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) will post later the first-half of today.

*IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April with the top 50+ rookies at the debut, working towards 100+ rookies there as well.

-- For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

THU 3/20

(7:40amET)

-- News hit WED that the Vikings were not gonna pursue Aaron Rodgers ‘at this time’. I don’t know if that was news as much as it was ‘somebody said...’

I don’t think the book is officially closed on this. Minnesota is not making any official statements, nor should they. I’m left thinking...it took the Vikings two weeks of free agency to supposedly come out and say ‘no thanks’ to Rodgers? What was happening in those two weeks? Why didn’t they say ‘no’ right away? Something was happening...something could still be happening.

It’s not implausible that the Vikings danced with the notion and that they, or Rodgers, turned it down...the story/rumor could be true...but I’m not closing the door on it until I see Rodgers say it publicly...or the Vikes make some official comment (but they likely will not).

The Vikings didn’t admit to talking to or thinking about something with Aaron Rodgers over the past two weeks, that I’m aware of...so, why are there now reports that they are ‘passing’ on him? Again, the reports may be true from yesterday, but something doesn’t 100% feel right about them yet. I am getting no confirmation from sources that the dealings are closed yet -- doesn’t mean they aren’t closed, but I don’t have that official word yet from someone I trust or from Rodgers or the Vikings themselves yet.

I have thought that if Rodgers or the Vikings ‘passed’ on each other, then Rodgers would likely ‘retire’ or just be unsigned for a while...but still be open to a return to a team in need, in the right situation, like if an injury hit in training camp, etc.

The situation is still fluid...and likely annoying for days and weeks to come.

I can say this: the Vikings odds to win the NFC North or NFC Conference haven’t moved today on DraftKings. But their odds to win the Super Bowl actually dropped from +3,000 to +2,200 in the past 24 hours or so. The oddsmakers haven’t reacted negatively to the report on ‘no Rodgers’ from yesterday.

-- I got a few football rumors of my own report on...ones that sources hit me up on, but a thing not really out in the mainstream news...rumors on where Nick Chubb is going.

In approx. a 24-hour period yesterday, I had three different sources (independent of each other) randomly tell me that they had some confidence that Chubb was gonna sign with PIT...and another said DEN...and another said CHI.

I’m surprised Chubb hasn’t signed yet. I think it’s gonna be the Steelers, but it’s just speculation at this point. If my sources are onto anything PIT-DEN-CHI are the ones trying to make the move.

-- I talked about doing a March Madness side project for grins and giggles on finding out which television series is really my favorite of all-time.

I was entertained by the notion, and needed a non-football distraction, so I went out to the web and looked up all the top listings of TV series from critics, viewer ratings, etc., and I wrote down the ones that I felt must be in the running. By the time I quit that project, I had 26 shows on the list...so I searched deeper to come up with the 32 for a proper tournament...but then I felt that was stupid, afterwards...because now I was putting on TV shows that had no chance to win, so why waste time?

So, I paired down my list of 32 to 16...and it was tough to make the final cuts, so I felt better about the project.

The ‘bubble’ teams/shows that didn’t make it on the final cut:

Ted Lasso, Dexter, The Walking Dead, The Twilight Zone, House, and The Goldbergs (in no particular order)...actually, The Goldbergs were probably the final cut. Probably a shocking show to see on a ‘best’ list, but I thought that was a very underrated show that had a long run and had a lot of comedic talent behind it and good writing for a network show, and I always enjoyed watching it every week. And I think I could watch it all again from the beginning and enjoy it.

So, the 16 TV shows invited to my March Madness tournament (alpha order):

Breaking Bad

Better Call Saul

Curb Your Enthusiasm

Evil (the CBS/Paramount+ series)

Ozark

Psych

Seinfeld

Severance (can’t wait for tonight)

Squid Game

Sopranos

Stranger Things

Suits

The Chosen

The Office (U.S)

This Is Us

Starting tomorrow, I will randomly pit two of them against each other...and do one matchup per day to drag it out over 2+ weeks for some sidebar content during the NFL quiet period.

And I’m going to randomly match them up. I don’t want to ‘seed’ them and have any bias to it. I’m just going to let it rip with the purpose of getting a final winner...I will make sure two obvious (for me) powerhouses don’t meet in the 1st-round, so I guess I will manipulate it some if needed. Like, I can’t have Breaking Bad face Better Call Saul in the 1st-round.

I want to hear about your TV series recommendations, I do...like every year I typically ask the FFM cult for TV series recommendations. But before you tell me about a show that I HAVE TO watch...I want you to run your own tournament, kill some time at work, etc., and then tell me about ‘that’ show (that I don’t have in my 16) that made it into your like Final Four or at least Final 8. Make me a good/great case for your show. If I see a trend of folks recommending the same show to me over and over, then I will rush that to the head of my offseason watch list.

It’s all subjective and for fun.

Before you yell at me about some beloved shows that people love/I have been recommended a bunch: I haven’t seen Yellowstone or Cobra Kai, but they are on my list to get to someday...maybe. All the hubbub on White Lotus, I have not had anyone tell me that I need to see it...but it is getting quite a current buzz in the media I see.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish today

*I need to shoot a Daily Dynasty Briefing video on going through yesterday’s news, for the last 2 days -- I lost my voice some after the Podfather show yesterday, so I didn’t shoot. If I get my voice back, I will record it later today.

*Another positional ranking/grades are scheduled to be posted today...the one supposed to post yesterday.

*Best Ball top 600 and top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) update is planned to post later todayET...unless major news hits late to push it real late or into Friday am.

The Dynasty and Best Ball projections include the top 70+ offensive rookies, as best we know/scout them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. Will be up to around 100 offensive rookies soon. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April with 50+ rookies at the debut, working towards 100+ rookies there as well.

*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades (1.0) will continue to post over the next few weeks...grading on the prospects we have enough information to run the first wave of scouting model grades. Those boards will be updated daily/weekly up into the NFL Draft, and post-Draft...with more data coming in over the summer and additionally re-graded after we scout players in the preseason.

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WED 3/19

(7:45amET)

-- We’re hitting a brick wall for football news at the moment. This is the usual ‘lull in the action’ as free agency ends and the Pro Days begin and March Madness kinda takes the wheel for the next couple of weeks, then baseball opening day then jumps in...and then the NFL heats back up 2nd-half of April getting ready for the Draft.

Not a lot of news to discuss in the NFL this morning. And Wednesday/today will be an odd schedule for me as I am prepping to go onto the Mind of Mansion podcast live with Matt Kelley, the Podfather at Noon...and who knows how long we’ll go, it’s like a Joe Rogan-esque session when he and I get together sometimes.

It should be live at NoonET or so. It will be out on YouTube for all of eternity to access after the show ends, and then it will get released as an audio podcast. We’ll post all the links, etc., as we get them.

But with the lack of any other hot news to discuss, I will do a quick update on the QB ‘Muscial Chairs’ as I (think I) know it today...

MIN = As we have maintained for the past two weeks: Aaron Rodgers is either playing for the Vikings or (my new feeling on his fallback plan this week) he will retire, if not connecting with the Vikings...and by ‘retiring’, I mean he will not sign anywhere but be an open option later in the season when/if a key QB gets hurt, etc. I am really of the belief he is not going to choose to play for PIT-NYG-CLE, if MIN doesn’t work out.

And if the Vikings just decide not to deal with Rodgers, it’s because they are ready for the J.J. McCarthy era to begin.

It’s taking time because Rodgers is not going anywhere else, so no rush for him...and he is smart to keep NYG-PIT-CLE on the hook for some leverage. He doesn’t owe those teams anything to ‘hurry up and let them know’...no matter how whiny the fans and/or media gets about it. And the Vikings know Rodgers is only interested in them, and they have JJM, so they don’t care if it takes an extra week or three.

NYG = I think NYG management may be starting to realize this too...that Rodgers isn’t going to choose here (NYG), thus the Jameis Winston meeting yesterday.

I still maintain they will sign Russell Wilson because the Titans won’t trade/swap picks with them, and thus Russ is all that is left to sign, Russ is all that’s left to help the GM to not look like a total and complete utter fool that he is...what a terrible businessperson. He misses out on everything.

PIT = Signs Jameis Winston, because he’ll be the only chair left to sit in...unless the Browns make a wild offer to Winston to come back. But I think Winston is waiting to see if he can get the PIT job...or his 2nd-choice the NYG job. Bottom line, Winston wants a chance to be a starter...and he is going to get it from some team in the next few days/week or so.

The Steelers think quite highly of themselves and believe they are NFL royalty that players should beat down their door and take discounts to go play for...when they realize that Rodgers isn’t picking them, and they have burned the Russ bridge...they will be somewhat smitten with Jameis actively wanting to play here. And I think Jameis left a lasting impression single-handedly beating them in that snow game on TNF last season.

I think PIT could sign Winston + Nick Chubb from CLE.

CLE = The odd team out of this QB game are the Browns, but they’ll be excused for it (unlike NYG or PIT, where this is all considered highly embarrassing that/if Russ or Rodgers don’t go play for them)...the Browns will be excused because (a) no one cares about the Browns, and (b) they have the #2 pick that the media can mock them Shedeur Sanders for the rest of the pre-Draft season.

There is some long shot possibility that Tennessee trades the #1 to CLE and gets multiple picks and gets CLE’s #2 to take Travis Hunter, but that’s likely too bold for either franchise to do/actually go through with an aggressive decision.

I didn’t think Shedeur Sanders would be picked in the top 3 since January, but now I’m starting to think that the bad franchises at picks #2-3 in this Draft are getting backed into a corner where they have to consider it to save some face...and they will rue the day...

-- Best Bet on my offseason board, and Rich Eisen channels my soul to agree...

https://www.reddit.com/r/LosAngelesRams/comments/1jds5s9/and_still_people_think_the_49ers_have_a_better/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Rams +170 to win the NFC West (as of last check).

The 49ers at +125...SEA at +650 and ARI at +$650.

It’s such an obvious bet that it’s scaring me, when it looks too good to be true...

-- I just finished watching the entire TV series ‘Dexter’, as my first entertainment watch of the offseason. And by watching, I mean it’s on one of my computer screens off to the side while I’m inputting data on prospects or doing any other light-thinking work that allows me to mostly listen to/casually follow along with.

I didn’t think I’d like ‘Dexter’, so I avoided it for forever...but a few people pitched it to me as a great TV series over the years, so I decided to give it a one-episode trial...and I was, surprisingly, hooked in right away. So, I binged it since the Super Bowl ended.

It wasn’t the greatest TV series I’ve ever seen, but it was good...and definitely good for its time. Hard for it to compete with the way they make TV shows nowadays. Like most Americans, I am watching 'Severance' Season 2 right now...'Dexter' is no match for 'Severance'...from the acting, dialogue, film work/production, etc. Shows about crime, serial killers, cops...are usually not for me, but ‘Dexter’ had an interesting spin on the genre. I give it a B-/C+ range grade.

But finishing this show got me thinking, again...what would I consider my favorite TV series/watch of all time? And then I thought...you know it’s March Madness time...so if you have a website you’re federally mandated to do some kind of tournament thing -- maybe I’ll go through and see if there are 16 or 32 TV series that I could consider for a mild tournament and settle this thing once and for all.

You may see the debut of this personal bracketology on THU...I’m thinking about it...and the notion is entertaining me. We’ll see. Need some non-football stuff to cleanse the palate of my brain.

-- RE-POSTING... Scheduling note: I am slated to be live with Matt Kelley, The Podfather, at noonET on Wednesday, as a guest on his show. You can watch it live on YouTube...or on-demand on YouTube after...or on his podcasts, wherever you consume your podcasts.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report today...a report on Savion Williams.

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news (Daily Dynasty Briefing) will hit midday.

*Another positional ranking/grades are scheduled to be posted today.

*Best Ball top 600 debuted yesterday. The top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) updated this past Thursday. Next updates on them will be Thursday/Friday...maybe Russ and Rodgers will have made decisions, finally?

The Dynasty and Best Ball projections include the top 50+ offensive rookies, as best we know/scout them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. Will be up to around 100 offensive rookies soon. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades (1.0) will start to post the next few weeks...grading on the prospects we have enough information to run the first wave of scouting model grades. Those boards will be updated daily/weekly up into the NFL Draft, and post-Draft...with more data coming in over the summer and additionally re-graded after we scout players in the preseason.

-- For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.

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TUE 3/18

(8:45amET)

-- For what it is worth...

I’m doing various football study projects right now...part of my day is spent on the draft, and part of my day is spent on existing NFL things...especially, this month, working through the NFL defenses/IDPs for the top 500 rankings on them coming late March/early April. As I was going through some defensive studies, I was working on the Broncos defense yesterday...and something really hit me…a thought that is not revolutionary, but is something that the true potential power of a situation really struck me…

I know, you know, the players they signed in free agency...the big-ticket ones being the 49ers duo they nabbed: Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. And it really didn’t fully hit me how stunning that was -- arguably the best LB and SAF on the market, and Denver gets them both?!? To add to what was, for the first like 13-14 weeks of the 2024 season (and we/FFM called that shot WAY before anyone else even noticed), the single best defensive unit in the league. The Broncos defense was near-dominating at times in the NFL in 2024, and we were racking up nice DST scoring from them...but then Riley Moss got hurt, breaking up their ace CB duo, and things started to come unwound a bit and they sputtered to the finish line.

On paper, Denver’s defense 2025 is pretty much bringing back everything that mattered from the 2024 unit...but Moss is healthy (as is everyone, on paper) and Alex Singleton should be back to full health after getting hurt in Week 3 and gone for the 2024 season.

The 2024 main issues for Denver were the linebacker injuries and a little weakness at safety. So, they go out and get a great linebacker (Greenlaw) and a guy who was heading towards a top 10 or so safety status in the league in 2023, but tore his ACL...Hufanga will be a year+ removed from the ACL surgery in 2025.

The Denver Broncos...best defense in the AFC West, no?

The Denver Broncos...maybe the single best defense in the NFL for 2025, perhaps?

The FF community is taking notice/remembering last year’s Broncos prowess...I’m starting to see them go as high as #1 in early Redraft and Best Ball drafts, ahead of the usual consensus top DST faves for 2025 -- PHI or BAL or PIT.

Are they our #1 DST for 2025...ultimately that question will be answered when the actual schedule order/layout hits, but you can see where we have them in Best Ball rankings right now on FFM.

-- Maybe I’m miss-remembering, or I’m too sensitive on the subject...but what is up with the Tetairoa McMillan 40-time Pro Day report outs/blurbs yesterday?

Usually, when a top prospect runs at their Pro Day...we get instant tweets of the fastest time anyone hand recorded...and that tweet going out like 5 seconds after the player finished their run...and then Twitter/X goes wild with the information as if it is the gospel, and then soon after that some mainstream news reports come out with the first-reported fast time and then that time ‘is a thing’ in that news cycle that day. What the real time was...that may not come pout/be ‘official’ for a day or two+, but everyone has moved on by then and the first reported ‘best times’ are what become ‘reality’ for the fanbase.

It’s just the way that system works...it’s why top prospects skip the Combine times and wait for the Pro Day. They want that ‘home cooking’ first tweet 40-time reports on his time to go out, usually from their agent who knowingly wants to manipulate the news cycle or it goes out from someone from the home school itself wanting to ‘promote’ their guy being ‘fast’.

As a veteran of ‘the scouting game’, I know, you know better...we know to wait for a more official report on the Pro Day 40-time and I often want the tape of it to hand-time it myself. I understand, I always assume that the first reported time from a Pro Day is likely ‘aggressive’...or ‘manipulated’...and is always ‘too low’/’not right’.

So, when I saw tweeted ‘4.48’ reports on McMillan’s 40-time...I assumed: it was probably more like 4.50-4.55. But I knew all the reporting would go on the 4.48 time...that’s just how it works. At least, I thought ‘I knew’ that’s how it would work. What’s very odd to me is that almost every single news outlet/roto blurb creator site reported the time as ‘4.48’ but then quickly went into some explanation of how and why that’s likely not right and that it’s likely a 4.55s +/- time.

Maybe, I’m just forgetting...but I cannot recall the news reports coming out so aggressively to disprove or adjust for a top prospect’s Pro Day 40-time like they did with McMillian yesterday. They should’ve been doing this for the past 15 years, but why are they so hyper-focused on taking down McMillian’s 40-time abilities or draft stock now? Why now? Why him? He’s been sliding in most mocks for the past month...and since the Combine, some lunatics even have Matthew Golden rated ahead of McMillan...because 40-time is the main way some analysts/people judge prospects by.

I don’t know what it is about McMillan, and the football establishment at large, but it feels like they just do not like or respect this guy...he’s been THEIR top ranked WR prospect in the draft, but you barely hear a peep about him. I’m not saying they hate him, but they are not fawning over him...and that’s not natural. I see more McMillan based notes where analysts are trying/aching to make the case that Golden or Egbuka or Burden are ‘really’ the best WRs in this draft.

You know how I feel, how we rated McMillian...so, when I see this general rain cloud or ‘shoulder shrug’ about him in the media...it strikes me as very odd. But I sure hope they keep it up/going come Dynasty Rookie Draft time...

If Ashton Jeanty runs a first-reported 4.48 at his Pro Day, I’ll bet there is little to no mention of how that’s probably 4.55...and if they do mention that adjustment, it will be one sentence about it...followed by 19 sentences on how 40-times don’t matter...they’ll do that because they love Jeanty, and nothing is gonna shake it...so they have to defend it/him no matter what. They do it with all prospects they ‘love’ at this stage. I can tell by the wording of blurbs and the social media comments, which prospects the draft people/draftniks love and which ones they really don’t embrace. ‘Feelings’ are the #1 scouting attribute on a player for analysts (who can find some data or metric to support the ‘feelings’ in most every case they want to)...and ‘feelings’ are then the general fan’s #1 scouting attribute for a player.

Why am I talking about this? Who cares? Well, it matters to the public perception...the group-think manipulation of narratives for these prospects -- it infects analyst’s brains, which trickles down to the base FF/Dynasty community, and they just go with the narratives out there, by and large. And all that impacts real draft stock for the NFL Draft...as well as affecting the draft stock for prospects in Dynasty Rookie Drafts.

Part of the scouting of players for the DRD is assessing their talent...then assessing the impact of their landing spot/new teams...but also to-be-considered for planning is what the public perception is on a rookie. Like the giant group-think fraud perpetrated on the public with Marvin Harrison Jr. last year.

I love this time of year!! I love the chess game of all the factors heading into our Dynasty Rookie Drafts and Redrafts and Best Ball and offseason betting on these things, etc. I only want to find the real profit from it all.

-- Scheduling note: I am slated to be live with Matt Kelley, The Podfather, at noonET on Wednesday, as a guest on his show. You can watch it live on YouTube...or on-demand on YouTube after...or on his podcasts, wherever you consume your podcasts.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report today...a report on Jalen Royals.

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news (Daily Dynasty Briefing) will hit midday.

*Another positional ranking/grades are scheduled to be posted today.

*Best Ball top 600 debuted yesterday. The top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) updated this past Thursday. Next updates on them will be next week...maybe Russ and Rodgers will have made decisions, finally?

The Dynasty and Best Ball projections include the top 50+ rookies, as best we know/scout them now...but we will keep updating them (and adding more) as we go/study them more. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March/early April.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

MON 3/17

(7:42amET)

-- Minnesota trades for Jordan Mason, and then gives him the best contract that a running back has received during this free agency/player movement period in 2025 -- 2-years/$10.5M with $7.2M beats the guarantee Najee Harris got from LAC ($5.3M)...and beats the total contract amount of Rico Dowdle ($6.3M).

A couple thoughts on this...

#1) The Vikings strike again. Aggressive moves for ‘win now’ 2025. The final piece of their puzzle is going to be Aaron Rodgers, if he and Kevin O’Connell agree to the road map for how this is gonna go.

If the Vikings get Rodgers...they should be one of the ‘favorites’ to win the NFC, and I’m pretty convinced the Rodgers thing is gonna happen (not 100%, but 70%+), so I’ve taken some starter positions/stakes in Minnesota to win the NFC North, win the NFC, and win the Super Bowl.

NFC North = +400...the current betting odds project them to finish 3rd in the division behind DET and GB.

NFC = +1600 (now down to +1400 today)...it’s a gauntlet conference even if they get Rodgers. PHI-DET-WSH-LAR all have NFC title hopes. Why SF is 4th in the odds to win the NFC, I have no idea. I wish I could ‘short’ teams at their current odds, I would short the $#!& out of all the SF bets (including that they are the current betting favorites to win the NFC West).

Super Bowl = +3500 (now down to +3000). The only teams I think that can realistically win the Super Bowl this season are: PHI-DET-WSH-LAR-MIN and KC-BUF-BAL...8 teams viable title teams...LAC-GB-CIN-HOU-TB not in that group, but are the next tier...of my 8 teams with a legit shot, the Vikings have the worst odds of the eight, that’s why I threw a few bucks on it for fun.

The eight ‘title potential’ team’s #2 QB...

PHI = Tanner McKee

DET = Hendon Hooker

WSH = Marcus Mariota

LAR = Jimmy Garoppolo

KC = Gardner Minshew

BUF = Mitch Trubisky

BAL = Cooper Rush

MIN = J.J. McCarthy (if Rodgers is signed)

The Vikings have one of the best fail safe options if any QB is needed for a game or two, or a half, etc.

#2) I’m VINDICATED!!! Jordan Mason getting a better contractual treatment than Najee Harris. I’m so glad some NFL teams saw through the Najee façade this offseason free agency period. Undrafted Jordan Mason has been, and is, the better NFL RB than 1st-round Najee.

The right thing to do WAS to sell the hype on Najee right away...and to avoid him for FF the past 4 seasons. He hasn’t been a zero...he’s been worse. You could move on from a zero and hatch other plans...but Najee got enough touches, was gonna thrive in the Arthur Smith offenses, yada-yada, to keep FF owners sucked in to playing him and never really getting a great run of results/ROI.

The public should have a class action lawsuit for the Najee scouting that ALL (non FFMers) bought...and after the lawyers take their cut, they should take back some of Najee’s egregious 1st-round contract money and give it to Mason, who deserved it more than Najee Hyperris. Mason was stuck behind CMC for years, when he could’ve (theoretically/make believe) gone to the Steelers and started and would’ve outperformed Harris the entire last 4 years...Mason just didn’t have the chance, because he was a lowly UDFA RB.

Warms my heart when the overlooked start to get their due.

#3) This is an obvious hit to Aaron Jones for FF. This will be a true split...they put good money into Mason, they didn’t add him to be a low touch bystander.

#4) The 49ers ‘everything must go’/’going out of business’ fire sale continues. I think I saw Christian McCaffrey on the street corner by my local mall spinning a sign touting the big discounts available in trade from the 49ers store.

I would also not be 100% shocked if McCaffrey was dealt sometime this year either.

Isaac Guerendo’s FF-value just jumped...until we see who the 49ers snag in this draft at RB, the golden age of RB’s draft.

How are the 49ers still the NFC West odds-on favorite after losing half their base of players in free agency, and a few more in trade?

-- From a report that I read on ESPN: New tight end Stone Smartt has an interesting backstory. He's relatively new to the position, having played it for only four years -- his final season at Old Dominion and three years with the Los Angeles Chargers. Before tight end, he was a quarterback.

He once threw 31 touchdowns in a season for Riverside City College in California, a junior college where he played for Tom Craft, the same guy who coached Jets GM Mougey and Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand at San Diego State. Mougey himself was a former QB-turned-pass catcher in college.

This whole ESPN article, shockingly, is worth a read: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44242157/new-york-jets-garrett-wilson-justin-fields-reunion

-- Scheduling note: I am slated to be live with Matt Kelley, The Podfather, at noonET on Wednesday, as a guest on his show.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report today...a new RB report. Slipped in Ross’s Matthew Golden report yesterday, my latest RB report publishes today...on D.J. Giddens.

*Another test shoot video on going through yesterday’s news (Daily Dynasty Briefing) will hit later today.

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

2025 1st-Round NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (FFM) v2.0

2025 NFL Draft Scouting Report: RB Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

2025 Dynasty Rankings: Top 600 (Update 3/21)

RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 3/17-3/23