We're looking at free agency ahead of the official FA start period (March 12th, kinda officially…but things are happening all week+ prior), going position by position to discuss some of the big names, tour top ranked guys, as well as the sleepers and frauds of the group…and we'll make some throwaway/dart throw predictions on landing spots.
Today's position group: The SAFs
The consensus top three RBs available…
1) Jevon Holland, MIA
2) Camryn Bynum, MIN
3) Talanoa Hufanga, SF
FFM’s Top Three SAF Available...
1) Talanoa Hufanga, SF
Was the best SAF, talent/output-wise, of this entire group until a 2023 ACL ended his 2023...then hindered him into 2024. A year removed from it now...you’re getting a potential steal because of the last year+ weaker results due to the injury...assuming he totally checks clean on the medicals.
2025 FA PREDICTION: I think SF may let him walk and turn things over to 2nd-year SAD Malik Mustapha. Let’s take a guess that either Brandon Staley saw him at SF last year and brings him to his new Saints D-C gig vs. Mike McDaniel (ex-SF coach) chasing after him.
2) Justin Reid, KC
The steady veteran safety who is only still 28 years old. A good+ run stopper and backup kicker. You can’t go too wrong here.
2025 FA PREDICTION: Very likely never makes it to free agency and re-signs with KC...as the Chiefs look like they are gonna ‘run it back’ with the core group in 2025. I’d be shocked if he left KC/some team made a huge offer to him he couldn’t refuse...not for a safety. BUT...KC is pinched for money, so...
3) Tre’Von Moehrig, LV
Has an argument to be the #1 on the list. Has become a great run stopper and getting better in pass coverage. Was a 2nd-round pick in 2021.
2025 FA PREDICTION: Vegas has a lot of CAP space, but if they were smart they’d not give money to safeties, when they are so replaceable...and cheaper. Probably re-signs with Vegas, because that’s how things usually go with a ‘we drafted this guy, he’s out property’ but...
I am going to be interested to see if this is where the Tom Brady business sense comes in and they don’t invest in a free agent safety, that they use that money more for offensive line and skill positions on offense...and at CB instead of SAF.
A great litmus test here for how Vegas’s new regime is thinking, what their sensibilities are.
The fraud SAF of free agency 2025: Jevon Holland, MIA
Not that he’s a bad safety, but he’s not clearly better than the top 3-4 or so other good safeties available -- but for some reason the NFL has him on a pedestal (even though Miami is likely letting him walk), and he’s potentially going to get the biggest contract of any FA safety this year...and it will not be worth the spend, even if he’s OK/good.
2025 FA PREDICTION: This feels like something a team with good CAP space, and that’s kind of an undesirable team to go to, is gonna panic when they miss out on the other things wanted in free agency...so, they panic overbid for a safety -- and it feels like Tennessee might be that team.
The best value SAF in free agency 2025: Jeremy Chinn, WSH
You get a safety/linebacker type hybrid option here. Washington stole him from Carolina in 2024 (in free agency), and he started getting back to his pre-injury ways last season. A great value that could be quite cheap.
2025 FA PREDICTION: Likely both Chinn and the Commanders want to be together again, and I would highly assume they will on a reasonable deal. Chinn has disappeared from the spotlight, so he should be a bargain. Not sure any team will step up and challenge Washington for his services...no one likely even makes anything beyond a just above league minimum type 2-year deal. He’s best served returning to Washington...and I’m sure he wants to, as well.
The deep sleeper SAF in free agency 2024: Jason Pinnock, NYG
A converted CB to SAF, Pinnock was showing promise in 2023 but then fell off and out of the starting lineup in 2024. He’s still making the transition to safety, in theory. He’s only 26 years old. I saw something in him in 2023...and maybe it was a ghost/blip, but for a league minimum deal with almost no guarantee needed -- a team can take a look.
2025 FA PREDICTION: If I see him get signed by Las Vegas, reuniting him with his former NYG D-C Patrick Graham...then I’ll have some hope that I’m onto something. That will be my projection/hope...to Las Vegas as DB depth. He can play corner for depth as well...and I liked him as CB coming out of Pitt.
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