Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
THU 2/20/25
(7:50amET)
-- Carolina signed Andy Dalton to a two-year, $8M contract with $6M guaranteed. The fail-safe plan if Bryce Young turns back into a pumpkin.
Bryce did play better later last season, but not as good as what everyone was doing backflips over. I think Bryce getting thrown back into the mix late last season set the Panthers back a year+ in a retool. I believe they were gonna ditch Bryce this offseason and move on to greener pastures, but Bryce boxed them in by Andy Dalton getting hurt, Bryce forced back in...and playing better, and the team overall playing better and winning some games...and the lack of QBs available in this year’s draft is helping Carolina just stick with what they got.
So, the prudent thing to do for the Panthers getting backed backed into a QB corner -- just let Bryce play to start 2025...and if he gets better, then they’re ‘winners’/smarter than everyone...but if he flops, Bryce will take the heat and they can make a change next season...when, hopefully, there are more QB options to turn to.
I think you’ll see the Bryce Young ‘concerns’ manifest itself in the draft when Carolina takes a QB on day three -- like a Riley Leonard or Tyler Shough, etc., to go with Dalton.
-- Tales from the road...
*I had this ‘complaint from the road’ partially written up last week, but didn’t get a chance to finish it. I will finish it/post it today...on a light news day. A tale with hopefully a little truth to Fantasy Football management, but mostly me complaining about some recent life events...
So, I was driving (for hours) along to my first stop on my Super Bowl week trip/meetings, and around lunchtime I’m excitedly declared...I can do whatever I want! When my wife travels with me...a congressional hearing and wrangling of votes has to occur to settle on a quick lunch stop choice. And the usual winner is ‘McDonalds’. We’d do Chik Fil A over them, but they aren’t as prevalent AND their parking lot is usually so packed it’s hard to even get into them around lunch time -- still, we will dive into the Chik Fil A fray if there’s the option...but there usually is not. But there’s a McDonald’s everywhere.
But with this trip, I’ve got a dictatorship going on for my lunch decision -- because I’m traveling solo...so, I can go anywhere I want. And one of my favorite quick fast-food stops, because burgers are my #1 pick usually, is Wendy’s...and whaddya know, just as I got the hunger urge...next exit showed having a Wendy’s...so Wendy’s it was.
11:30amET...into the Wendy’s I go. One other customer in the whole store. A clean store. I ordered my Dave’s Double Combo and went and chose my favorite drink from that wonderful jukebox machine of ten thousand soda flavors...*sidebar: someday if I ever hit that 7-leg long-shot parlay...I want to put one of those drink machines in my spacious home or home office*. At the Wendy’s jukebox o’ drink choices, I made my new favorite soda concoction: 80% Fanta Zero Sugar Peach with a 20% splash of Fanta Zero Sugar Pineapple.
By the time I got my soda creation and found my seat, they were calling out that my order was ready...a fresh, perfectly cooked burger and fresh fries. I sat in total peace and quiet and ate...on my side of the store. The only other customer sat on one side of the Wendy’s, so I went all the way to the other side and we both ate in peace...sharing an entire, quiet Wendy’s facility.
It got me thinking...why do I (or we/wife) skip on going to Wendy’s in favor of McDonald’s on the road? I think I agree to it (besides my wife always winning the voting) because I can get a burger and fries and drink for about half the price or so of the same thing at Wendy’s. Yeah, I am saving money...but the meal and the visit are not at all alike at Wendy’s v. McD.
When have you ever gotten a freshly cooked, fresh bun, delightful burger from McDonalds off a major highway? I usually get a disappointing (poorly cooked or poorly presented) burger and a 50/50 shot at fresh fries. I never get ‘sat around in the bin for the last 15 minutes’ burgers from Wendy’s.
And I have to usually wait in a long line at the off-the-highway McDonald’s...because the workers are typically slow moving and unmotivated...or they are trying their best, but they are radically understaffed for the throng of orders -- because McDonald’s does not care about service anymore. They treat all of us like animals. I know they do/think this because have you seen the new store remodels?
At my local McD’s they just did a remodel -- they took out the front counter...there is no cash register/s...no one visible to take or help you with your order...the staff is now hidden behind a wall/blockade...and you WILL use the giant computer screen to order. The touch screen doesn’t bother me, I actually prefer the touch screen order (actually I always order via the App) -- but when I have an issue with something, there’s no one visible to turn to. No front counter...just a giant space of racks and counter they throw your food onto and either the order moved to ‘ready’ on a computer screen OR someone may shout out your number in a shrill voice that cuts through the restaurant so you can't eat in peace...you can’t eat in peace at a McDonald’s anyway due to the mob of kids on the loose at the typical McDonald’s. Why am I supporting McDonald’s terrible treatment of us all? Why give money to this terrible atmosphere of chaos? At the Wendy’s, I sat quietly listening to low volume classical music over their speaker system. At McDonald’s...it was literally like a farm with a bunch of cattle being yelled at and various animals on the loose, overcrowded, roaming the fields.
And, of course, you have to use the restroom when you stop -- so, that’s a delightful ‘crime scene’ at a typical McDonald’s, with a wait in line sometimes. At Wendy’s I immediately went into a private one-person-at-a-time men’s room and used it in peace.
And now...do you know what’s even worse at our local McDonald’s/being rolled out at McDonald’s everywhere -- you order your drink, and they prepare it in the back and put it on the tray with your food and slide it out on a counter for you to go retrieve. There are no more drink machines where you can control your own drink destiny. ..they took them out, they are planning to take them out everywhere...us ‘animals’ can’t be trusted to make their own drinks...someone is probably ordering a water/cup and getting soda in it instead! We’ll make everyone pay for that crime...we’ll take away the soda machine for all! Corporate quarterly profits may go up one whole penny per share!
Why do I want to support a business (McDonald’s) that thinks we are all the scourge of the earth? At Wendy’s, I have 100+ drink options to choose from at my leisure. At Chik Fil’ A...it’s ‘their pleasure’ to refill my drink as soon as they see that’s what I need. At McDonald’s...no soup/drink for you...unless you buy another one...via the App...made the way THEY decided to make it.
So, I am trying to ban McDonald’s as a stop from our road trips...I ask that you join the fight! *Unless you have small children, then I get feeding them cheap and letting them go wild in the playland. When the best thing about your restaurant is ‘a playland’...you’ve got issues.
There’s an FF lesson in all of this -- we can’t be afraid to overpay or properly pay for elite things in Fantasy Football...whether that is a Dynasty trade or redrafting a player 1-2-3 rounds higher ‘than you’re supposed to’. Always looking for a deal isn’t usually what it is cracked up to be.
Quality over quantity.
‘Excellent acquisition of what you want’ OVER ‘trying to get a steal of a deal’ all the time (and then never making a deal because all the offers are terribly cheap/insulting -- and then complaining...’my league never trades’). Be willing to pay a fair, or higher, price for quality.
It’s true of food and Fantasy.
I see this warped sentiment of ‘getting/wanting a deal’ in the stock market ALL THE TIME. People never want to buy a stock at its new all-time high price...they always want to ‘wait for it to come down’ to a better/lower price. The thing is...most all stocks that are hitting all-time highs FOR A GOOD REASON. And the comedy is...the people that talked about wanting a particular stock they love/want to drop 20% so they can ‘buy it cheaper’...when it does have that 20% drop point at one brief window of time -- they still don’t buy it...because ‘what if it keeps going down?’/’what’s wrong with this stock?’
Invest in quality...invest in what you want...you won’t regret it. Trying to get a knock off version or waiting for a surprise flash sale moment -- you’ll miss out/the time won’t ever come and/or won’t be happy.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
Next Scouting Report will post today...another RB (TreVeyon). I’ve been doing several RBs in a row over the past few days, after this TreVeyon Henderson report, I will then take a break on the RBs and transition to a few of the higher/highest ranked prospects at any position that I haven’t done yet.
Our new daily series continues for the next week+ -- a top 25 ‘draft’, a 2023 and 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft mash-up draft...with the rookies from those two years drafted as we know them now. After this mash-up mock we’ll then add the 2025 rookies into it (as we know them pre-draft) after the Combine...just to get some concepts to think about before the actual NFL and DRD draft.
Our 2025 Combine positional previews will publish randomly all week (as we get them done).
Working on my team-by-team studies to launch the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) debut for 2025...which will include the rookies. ETA for the debut is the day after the NFL Combine, to get the best data in for the rookie projections start point. *IDP top 500 will debut in late March.
-- A quick reminder about the Betting Subscribers from 2024...the 2024 betting subscription ‘season’ ended Feb 17th, 2025/a week after the Super Bowl.
New Betting subscriptions for 2025 season (goes until Mid-Feb. 2026) will be available in March, and we’ll let you know all about sign-ups, etc., prior.
We’ll be opening back up in-time for NFL Draft betting and the early Prop and team bets that come out in April and May, and the rest of the offseason into the preseason and through the regular and postseason.
Your Discord access will stay intact all February (and beyond) while we get set for the new betting subscription season.
WED 2/19/25
(7:05amET)
-- A follow up from yesterday’s insider note on the Chiefs inquiring about Kyle Pitts in a trade...
I didn’t mention the other ripple effects of that (after the whole Kelce angle)...two other things...
1) If KC is reaching out to teams/going after TEs, it means they do not see Noah Gray as the answer (which he isn’t)...and that Jared Wiley isn’t ready yet (and he’s rehabbing an ACL, so who knows what his 2025 status will be, and when).
2) I have also heard (from a suspect source) that KC is also sniffing around Evan Engram as well. If KC got EE...you know I’d lose my mind with utter joy.
-- Here are some nice, encouraging words from Sean Payton about Marvin Mims:
https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/sean-payton-classifies-broncos-marvin-mims-as-elite-playmaker
I need Sean Payton to ‘make me a full believer’...not in Mims, I’m already there with that...as most of you know from our FF and betting escapades with Mims late in the 2024 regular season. No, I need to believe Payton is going to push this further, and stop playing footsies with it, as he did too much late last season -- he had a nuclear bomb on his hands (Mims) and rarely pushed the button to deploy it early or fully or constantly on opponents...he just dabbled in it most of the time.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
Next Scouting Report will post today...another RB (Judkins). I’ve been doing several RBs in a row over the past few days, after my TreVeyon Henderson report (after Judkins), I will then take a break on the RBs and transition to a few of the higher/highest ranked prospects at any position that I haven’t done yet.
Our new daily series continues for the next week+ -- a top 25 ‘draft’, a 2023 and 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft mash-up draft...with the rookies from those two years drafted as we know them now. After this mash-up mock we’ll then add the 2025 rookies into it (as we know them pre-draft) after the Combine...just to get some concepts to think about before the actual NFL and DRD draft.
Our 2025 Combine positional previews will publish randomly all week (as we get them done).
Working on my team-by-team studies to launch the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings (offense) debut for 2025...which will include the rookies. ETA for the debut is the day after the NFL Combine, to get the best data in for the rookie projections start point. *IDP top 500 will debut late March.
-- A quick reminder about the Betting Subscribers from 2024...the 2024 betting subscription ‘season’ ended Feb 17th, 2025/a week after the Super Bowl.
New Betting subscriptions for 2025 season (goes until Mid-Feb. 2026) will be available in March, and we’ll let you know all about sign-ups, etc., prior.
We’ll be opening back up in-time for NFL Draft betting and the early Prop and team bets that come out in April and May, and the rest of the offseason into the preseason and through the regular and postseason.
Your Discord access will stay intact all February (and beyond) while we get set for the new betting subscription season.
TUE 2/18/25
(7:57amET)
-- Our friend/Falcons analyst Jeff Benedict dropped this nugget on X yesterday. And Jeff has a high batting average for dropping info on the Falcons, so I just trust his info without much doubt.
https://x.com/JMB_CU16/status/1891481353901776971
We can debate the legitimacy of whether Kyle Pitts is worthy of any of us, or the Chiefs, thinking ‘Pitts just needs _____’. No player has FF-burned me more in the past 4 years than Kyle Pitts. I was with the world off the bat -- that this guy was maybe the greatest TE weapon I’ve ever scouted.
First excuses were: Well, he’s a rookie...but he showed flashes. And Matt Ryan is shot.
Second was: Well, Art Smith and Desmond Ridder.
Last was: Kirk Cousins and a new staff will certainly fix this!
Same old disappointing Pitts every iteration. By the end of last season, Charlie Woerner was playing more snaps in a game. A new regime that was so high on him coming in...effectively benched him at the end of their first season together.
But...I do know, if you own Pitts, when (if) this news hits the mainstream -- Pitts’ valuation will soar once again. I’d be a Dynasty seller into real valuation strength.
AND...this is another piece of evidence that KC is effectively moving on from Travis Kelce....and/or Kelce is moving on from the NFL. I said Kelce was 60/40 gone from the NFL the other day...I’d put that at 65/35 now. If he does return, it will be on a dirt-cheap deal where he will be a rotational TE...a ceremonial starter then plays about 20-30 snaps a game.
-- Time for a little levity. I had this clip pop up in my YouTube feed...it’s from the Saturday Night Live SNL 50th anniversary event held on Sunday. The clip features Bill Murray doing a sketch on weekend update.
I’m guessing most of you have watched SNL at various points in your life, and one way or the other you know who Bill Murray is. So, I was watching this clip while walking the dog and I was cracking up and amazed.
Amazed at the still impeccable comedic timing of Mr. Bill Murray. I hope you’ve watched enough SNL to know how funny this little segment really was (because there’s a lot of SNL history here)...but I also hope you can savor just how great Murray’s delivery and timing and cadence are...
https://youtu.be/4rXBddwSWCg?si=wFRlQSZ8TL0nkbgu
I posted that not only because I so thoroughly enjoyed it, comedically...but I also marveled at the fact = do you know how old Bill Murray is? 74. Seventy-four years old and his comedic cadence hasn’t changed, his wit is rapier sharp, his delivery and performance on live television...flawless.
Shouldn’t 74-year-olds be retired and playing golf or napping a lot...and unable to function at their craft anywhere near as well at their prime years (whatever ‘prime years’ are any more)?
In the crowd at SNL50 was 77-year-old Larry David from ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’, and his best friend 70-year-old Jerry Seinfeld. Neither have lost their fastball for comedy.
I recently watched 73-year-old Pete Carroll handle an intro press conference like a pro...and he looks ready to roll for his new head coaching gig. You have to agree with the crowd...he doesn’t look or act like we think 70+ year olds should.
Whether you like or hate Donald Trump, you do have to give him credit -- does anyone work longer or harder at any age, much less him being the leader of the free world at age 78? I watched him do a 2–3-hour podcast with Joe Rogan before the election...and he was never at a loss for words and was willing to converse about any topic...and Rogan said he was amazed that Trump never took a drink of water or asked for a break or went to the bathroom in that near 3-hour session.
In my mind, growing up/living life into my 20s, 30s, 40s -- I thought I’d be long retired by age 70, and for sure by age 75...and, admittedly thinking I would surely be ‘losing my fastball’ by then. I guess I just kinda held onto that thought for years...without giving it a lot of thought in this current era. But I’m not sure why I have recently taken notice of all the 70+ year old talents thriving and succeeding into their 70’s over the past year+...it has hit me like a ton of bricks -- there’s a long runway ahead for success if we’re all lucky to keep our health in decent shape.
All those successful 70+ers that I mentioned -- they are thriving doing what they love/enjoy.
I used to think about retirement a lot...when I hated my corporate job/life. ‘Retirement’ was the carrot on a stick for me to keep plugging...save-save-save in that 401K, so that I could escape corporate as fast as I could one day into the vast future. Some of you can probably attest to this feeling at the workplace...
But thinking back on it...I had it all wrong. It wasn’t the corporate job’s fault, per se. It was my fault: I was doing something I really didn’t enjoy all that much, but it paid pretty well, so I kept plugging...until I didn’t. I made a big, seemingly stupid change from safe corporate to the unknown, landmine-filled world of doing something I loved as a business...and taking a huge economic haircut to do it. And financially, it’s still not been the ‘right’ move.
But you know what never happens to me now? I NEVER wake up and hate to go to work. Not once. I used to almost always hate to get up for work...unless my aggravating boss was on vacation, then it was semi-enjoyable to wake up and go in. I don’t experience that dread at all working in the football field.
Why am I typing all this from a Bill Murray skit?
Honestly, I don’t know. It just happened. It is ‘RC’s notes, so RC can do what he wants...even refer to himself in the 3rd-person.
I am just marveling at how much more time to thrive we all have...the opportunity. The opportunity to go and find your ‘thing’...even while working a bad job to pay the bills now...I know I did for many years...saving and scratching and clawing to one day try to make my great escape from a job I didn’t love/like...and into a side hustle I had been building in my spare time, that grew into a main hustle. We’ve got more time than we think to find our ‘thing’, to try new things (if we can keep our health, God willing). I pray that we all can find that thing that keeps us energized and challenged into our 70s and beyond.
No more doubts from me about Pete Carroll. I kinda hope he succeeds in Vegas and becomes a bit of a role model on this vibe that’s captivated me of late -- the vibe that we’re in an era of the rise of the 70+ year olds! The vibe that I have a bunch of years ahead of me to succeed and reinvent...and enjoy. Traditional retirement doesn’t have to be the end goal.
I really don’t like shuffleboard anyway...or golf.
Or ‘traveling’.
I’d rather watch football tape or write about football or win money on football betting...I’d rather spend every day of the season just watching football on ever-growing-in-size-televisions!
I watched the Super Bowl on someone’s new 98-inch television. Imagine the size TV there will be in my 70s! It only gets better from here, if we pursue it! Thank you Bill Murray, for that reminder/inspiration!
-- A quick reminder about the Betting Subscribers from 2024...the 2024 betting subscription ‘season’ ended Feb 17th, 2025/a week after the Super Bowl.
New Betting subscriptions for 2025 season (goes until Mid-Feb. 2026) will be available in March, and we’ll let you know all about sign-ups, etc., prior.
We’ll be opening back up in-time for NFL Draft betting and the early Prop and team bets that come out in April and May, and the rest of the offseason into the preseason and through the regular and postseason.
Your Discord access will stay intact all February (and beyond) while we get set for the new betting subscription season.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
Next Scouting Report will post today or WED...another RB. I’m doing several RBs in a row over the next few days, then taking a break and transitioning to higher/highest ranked prospects at any position.
Our new daily series continues for the next week+ -- a top 25 ‘draft’, a 2023 and 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft mash-up draft...with the rookies from those two years drafted as we know them now. After this mash-up mock we’ll then add the 2025 rookies into it (as we know them pre-draft) after the Combine...just to get some concepts to think about before the actual NFL and DRD draft.
Our 2025 Combine positional previews are set to begin this upcoming week.
Working on my team-by-team studies to launch the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings debut in a week or so...which will include the rookies.
MON 2/17/25
(7:27amET)
-- Read this first, it was ‘a thing’ about a week ago...for some reason: https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10153578-nfl-rumors-patriots-to-consider-joe-milton-trade-execs-project-3rd-round-price-tag.amp.html
First off, Joe Milton is awful/not an NFL QB.
Second, I do believe New England will trade him (if they can).
Third, If NFL execs think Milton is worth a 3rd-round pick...if that’s real...it’s further proof NFL people, from the scouts to the GMs to the coaches to the owners, know as much about scouting as throwing a dart at a dart board -- and I’ve got about 15 years in the business now...so I know this to be true...it’s shocking how bad/random NFL scouting is.
And as a scout, myself...yes, I want to be right about everything all the time -- but that’s not possible. My job, my goal is to be ‘more right’ than anyone else walking the planet. And that may mean a 70-80% hit rate, where the NFL and other analysts are 50%...60% on the really good ones.
And scouting is not just about ‘Who got it right?’ in March/April...although, that’s a big test...but I’m also maniacal about ‘continuous scouting’. We gotta keep watching and scouting into a rookie’s preseason work and with their week-to-week NFL work. Not just rookies but all players. Players evolve, improve, get hurt, have personal issues, and get constant different coaches, etc. It’s an everlasting, ever-evolving scouting.
I want to be right first, but then after that...I want to be right quickly on something I missed/misread. There is zero valor in making a prediction on...let’s use the example of Anthony Richardson...and just sticking with it to my own peril. I thought he would be a superstar NFL player, a dual-threat QB that would be stunning for FF. But then we find out in his NFL year two that he has study and effort and injury issues...none of which was on the board pre-Draft, at least wasn’t on my radar...and it would’ve changed my (and the Colts’/the NFLs) thinking pre-Draft. Sometimes ‘money’ is the biggest ‘change’ pressure on a prospect...or it reveals a true character that was hiding prior.
So, mid-2024 season, I had to make a new call on AR, which I did...I sold out. Took a loss on the sale but got out quicker than others who stuck by him and saw his value continue to decline. Could he turn back around? Sure. But the ‘new scouting’ or the ‘current’ Richardson had me make a decision in the other direction.
I live and die betting on players for FF and Props. I cannot afford to be 50/50 on scouting upfront and I cannot afford to hold on to a bad prior scouting, when something has changed the game in the ‘current’. Too much of my money and your money at stake.
I don’t know why Joe Milton triggered that stream of consciousness...but he did. I know I’m not wrong about Milton...upfront or ‘current’. He’s not a 3rd-round level QB acquisition. But I wouldn’t put it past some NFL teams...
-- Here’s another example of bad scouting...one where EVERYBODY agreed and had no doubts at all. But now, conveniently, the doubts are coming...on Mr. Marv Harrison.
Just see what an opposing CB thinks of Marv...and the CB is a Pro Bowl’er...and one who faced Marv in college and in the pros. He hits the Marv scouting right on the head: https://x.com/new_era72/status/1890196974357668104
It goes without saying that this made my day.
-- A quick reminder to the Betting Subscribers from 2024...the 2024 betting subscription runs until Feb 17th, 2025/a week after the Super Bowl.
New Betting subscriptions for 2025 season (goes until Mid-Feb. 2026) will be available in March, and we’ll let you know all about sign-ups, etc., prior.
We’ll be opening back up in-time for NFL Draft betting and the early Prop and team bets that come out in May, and the rest of the offseason into the preseason and through the regular and postseason.
Your Discord access will stay intact all February (and beyond) while we get set for the new betting subscription season.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
Next Scouting Report will post today...another RB. I’m doing several RBs in a row over the next few days, then taking a break and transitioning to
Our new daily series continues for the next week+ -- a top 25 ‘draft’, a 2023 and 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft mash-up draft...with the rookies from those two years drafted as we know them now. After this mash-up mock we’ll then add the 2025 rookies into it (as we know them pre-draft) after the Combine...just to get some concepts to think about before the actual NFL and DRD draft.
Our 2025 Combine positional previews are set to begin this upcoming week.
Working on my team-by-team studies to launch the top 600 Dynasty valuations/rankings debut in a week or so...which will include the rookies.
-- Crumbl Scouting Report...
I have a four-week streak going of no Crumbl, but not always for a lack of effort...too much travel, too much work of late. One of my attempts to acquire some in the past few weeks...they were sold out of most items on a Saturday night/end of the Crumbl week.
I need to stay away, for weight loss hope...so I was hoping to get to a 5th week of a streak staying away this week ahead -- but...then Crumbl hit me in the gut with this week’s offerings:
Tres Leche Cake is back! My single favorite. I don’t know how I can stay away...
Chocolate Peanut Butter Pie is making a debut, I believe...it looks good.
Key Lime Pie Cookie...no way for me, I hate key lime.
Chocolate Cake Batter Cookie...I’m not a chocolate guy, per se...but man does this look good.
Kit Kat cookie...a cookie filled with Kit Kat and topped with Kit Kat? I love a Kit Kat, but can they pull this off? I may have to find out.
Iced Oatmeal Cookie...ouch, another punch to the gut...I LOVE Oatmeal Cookies, especially ‘iced’ just right.
I have a feeling the streak is going down as soon as a couple hours from this post...
What it looks like on video: https://youtu.be/rmxqnyVMLFI?si=-yE5oj1VHMVJkuhA
