Using the rosters as they are as of Aug 28 (version 3.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and then taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 13-15...
-- Uh oh, the Jets (9-5) lead in the AFC East is down to one-game over Buffalo (8-6).
-- The Bengals (10-4) are holding their one-game lead over the Ravens (9-5)...also, Cincy has the best record in the AFC coming down the stretch – but five other AFC teams are a game behind them for the top spot.
-- Houston (9-5) is still tied for the AFC South lead...but no longer is it with Indy (8-6)...it’s with Tennessee (9-5).
-- The Chiefs (9-5) still lead the AFC West, but they cannot hake the pesky Broncos (8-6) who are just a game behind.
-- The Giants (7-7) lead the NFC East by one-game over...the rest of the division tied at (6-8).
-- Detroit (10-4) has caught the Packers (10-4) in the NFC North.
-- The Falcons (8-6) have caught the Bucs (8-6) in the NFC West.
-- The Rams (11-3) have the best record in the NFC West and in the Faux NFL...a two-game lead over SF (9-5).
-- Minnesota (2-12) broke their (0-11) start and won not one, but two games this last stretch! CAR-NE-MIN all at (2-12) now.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| BUF | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| MIA | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| NE | …. | 2 | - | 12 | = | 0.143 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| CIN | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| BAL | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| CLE | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| PIT | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| HOU | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| TEN | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| IND | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| JAX | … | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| DEN | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| LAC | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| LV | … | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYG | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| PHI | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| WSH | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| DAL | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| GB | …. | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| CHI | … | 4 | - | 10 | = | 0.286 |
| MIN | … | 2 | - | 12 | = | 0.143 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| TB | …. | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| NO | …. | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| CAR | … | 2 | - | 12 | = | 0.143 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 11 | - | 3 | = | 0.786 |
| SF | …. | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| SEA | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| ARI | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
