Using the rosters as they are as of Aug 28 (version 3.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and then taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 10-12...
-- The Jets (8-3) continue to lead the AFC East...leading it by two games over both BUF and MIA (6-5)
-- The Ravens (7-5) are closing in on the Bengals (8-3) in the AFC North.
-- The Colts and Texans are both (7-5) leading the AFC South...with the Titans (6-5) a game behind.
-- The Chiefs (7-4) still lead the AFC West but cannot shake the Broncos (6-6) hanging in the race.
-- Shocker... The Giants (6-5) take a half-game lead over Washington (6-6) for the NFC East. Dallas and Philly are two games out at (4-7).
-- Green Bay (9-2) is keeping there two game lead over the Lions (7-4) in the NFC North.
-- Tampa Bay (7-4) has taken sole possession of the NFC South over Atlanta (6-5).
-- The Rams (10-1) are out to the biggest lead of any team/division...now 3 games ahead the 49ers (7-4).
-- I don’t think this will really happen, but the schedule is so brutal the computer models are going there...and it is Sam Darnold after all...but the Vikings are now (0-11). The last time our projections crushed a team this bad (worse) it was the 2022 Seattle Seahawks led by new starting QB Geno Smith...and then they made the playoffs that season, so I’m sure that will happen here as well and make us look foolish.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
| BUF | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| MIA | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| NE | …. | 2 | - | 10 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| CIN | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
| BAL | … | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
| CLE | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| PIT | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| IND | … | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
| HOU | … | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
| TEN | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| JAX | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| DEN | … | 6 | - | 6 | = | 0.500 |
| LAC | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| LV | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYG | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| WSH | … | 6 | - | 6 | = | 0.500 |
| PHI | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| DAL | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| GB | … | 9 | - | 2 | = | 0.818 |
| DET | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| CHI | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| MIN | …. | 0 | - | 11 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| TB | …. | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| ATL | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| NO | …. | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| CAR | … | 1 | - | 10 | = | 0.091 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 10 | - | 1 | = | 0.909 |
| SF | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| SEA | …. | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| ARI | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
