Using the rosters as they are as of Aug 28 (version 3.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and then taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 7-9...
-- All the undefeateds have fallen...CIN (8-1) and LAR (7-1) incurred their first loss this cycle.
-- However, we still have one team that is winless...the Vikings are (0-8). They aren’t the worst team in the league by any stretch, they just have a wicked schedule.
-- The Jets (7-2) continue to lead the AFC East by more than a game...2 games ahead of BUF (5-4).
-- The Bengals (8-1) are riding their favorable schedule to a 2-game lead over Baltimore (6-3).
-- Indy (5-4) and Houston (5-4) are tied for the AFC south lead.
-- KC (5-3) has a half-a-game lead over surprising Denver (5-4).
-- Washington (4-5) and NYG (4-5) are the shock co-leaders of the NFC East.
-- Green Bay (7-2) and Detroit (6-2) are in a heavyweight battle for the NFC North.
-- The Falcons (6-3) and Bucs (6-3) are continuing to battle for the NFC West.
-- The Rams (7-1) lead the NFC West by a game, now, over SF (6-2).
AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
NYJ | … | 7 | - | 2 | = | 0.778 |
BUF | … | 5 | - | 4 | = | 0.556 |
MIA | … | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
NE | …. | 2 | - | 7 | = | 0.222 |
=============== | ||||||
AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
CIN | … | 8 | - | 1 | = | 0.889 |
BAL | … | 6 | - | 3 | = | 0.667 |
PIT | … | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
CLE | … | 4 | - | 5 | = | 0.444 |
=============== | ||||||
AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
IND | … | 5 | - | 4 | = | 0.556 |
HOU | … | 5 | - | 4 | = | 0.556 |
TEN | … | 4 | - | 4 | = | 0.500 |
JAX | … | 3 | - | 6 | = | 0.333 |
=============== | ||||||
AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
KC | …. | 5 | - | 3 | = | 0.625 |
DEN | … | 5 | - | 4 | = | 0.556 |
LAC | … | 3 | - | 5 | = | 0.375 |
LV | … | 3 | - | 6 | = | 0.333 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
WSH | … | 4 | - | 5 | = | 0.444 |
NYG | … | 4 | - | 5 | = | 0.444 |
PHI | … | 3 | - | 5 | = | 0.375 |
DAL | … | 2 | - | 6 | = | 0.250 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
GB | … | 7 | - | 2 | = | 0.778 |
DET | … | 6 | - | 2 | = | 0.750 |
CHI | … | 2 | - | 6 | = | 0.250 |
MIN | …. | 0 | - | 8 | = | 0.000 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
ATL | … | 6 | - | 3 | = | 0.667 |
TB | …. | 6 | - | 3 | = | 0.667 |
NO | …. | 2 | - | 7 | = | 0.222 |
CAR | … | 1 | - | 8 | = | 0.111 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
LAR | … | 7 | - | 1 | = | 0.875 |
SF | … | 6 | - | 2 | = | 0.750 |
SEA | …. | 5 | - | 4 | = | 0.556 |
ARI | … | 3 | - | 6 | = | 0.333 |