Using the rosters as they are as of Aug 28 (version 3.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 1-3...
-- Four undefeated teams through 3 games: CIN, BAL, GB, LAR
-- And four winless teams through 3 games: CHI, MIN, CAR, ARI
-- The AFC East race begins with a three-way (2-1) tie with BUF-NYJ-MIA
-- Cincy and Bal are both (3-0) and lead the AFC North.
-- A three-way tie for the AFC South between (2-1) TEN-HOU-IND.
-- The AFC West has a shock lead, via a nice schedule...LAC (2-1)...with everyone else (1-2).
-- The NFC East is a four-way tie with every team (1-2).
-- Green Bay (3-0) leads the NFC North over Detroit (2-1).
-- The Saints and Bucs are both tied (2-1) to lead the NFC West.
-- The Rams (3-0) lead the NFC West over Seattle (2-1). The 49ers begin (1-2).
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| NYJ | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| MIA | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| NE | …. | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| CIN | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| BAL | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| CLE | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| PIT | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| TEN | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| HOU | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| IND | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| JAX | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAC | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| KC | …. | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| LV | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| DEN | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| WSH | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| DAL | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| PHI | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| NYG | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| GB | …. | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| DET | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| CHI | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| MIN | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| NO | …. | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| TB | …. | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| ATL | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| CAR | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| SEA | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| SF | …. | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| ARI | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
