INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 15 week in Dec. 2023)
Game Overview...
This was a one score game with a little over a minute left and Washington trying to stop a final Rams drive to get the ball back to hopefully have a chance to tie the game...but Washington couldn’t stop the Rams last drive, so the clock ran out...and ballgame. The perceived reality of this game/what people ‘saw’ from this = a one score game with the bland Rams barely beating the bad Commanders.
In reality, to my judge’s scorecard, after the rewatch = this should’ve been a 40-50+ points to 0-7 domination win by the very good Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams were near-dominant here. Up 20-0 quickly...eventually up 28-7...within all that big/quick lead Kyren Williams lost two fumbles on likely scoring drives, etc., in the 1st-quarter. Washington could barely move the ball during the onslaught as the Rams were marching towards a score nearly every drive. As the Rams tried to put this one away to try to go up 35-7, Puka dropped an easy 3rd-down conversion in the red zone (a catch that might have gone for a TD and a Puka WR1 week) and that led to a short field goal attempt...that the Rams missed and then suddenly the Commanders caught fire with their ‘we’re giving up’ move to Jacoby Brissett.
The Rams were just trying to get this game over with late and Brissett came in firing and the Commanders started making acrobatic catches and scored two TDs in short order and suddenly it was a game. It didn’t have to be. The Rams let off the gas/just had some one-off things happen not forced by Washington and then the Commanders got lucky getting back into it.
I will continue to say the Rams (7-7) are one of the best ‘emerging’ teams in the NFL right now. The best-looking under the radar teams to me all season have been Houston, Indy and the Rams. I thought Arizona was going to go there too, but they never could finish what they started...and then they gave up/gave out near the trade deadline. Now, replacing Arizona for our ‘bad team you don’t wanna face right now’ award is Chicago. Week 16 is the big moment for the Rams (and Saints). Rams must win this...and if they do, they are likely to be one of the wild cards at (9-8). If the Rams lose, then the advantage flips over to the Saints (or Tampa) going in with Seattle for the final two spots.
Washington (4-10) should’ve gotten stomped here, and it should have been the 3rd game in a row they would’ve given up 40+ points and been beaten by 30+. If that had happened...their +3.0 line at NYJ might be +4-5-6 for Week 16. Washington really did get whooped here, but the score didn’t indicate it.
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2024 COMMENTS: This was the game that got Washington people jacked on Jacoby Brissett, but it really was a lot of ‘throws up for grabs’ and the Washington WRs making the grabs late in the game, to their credit. But they wouldn’t start Brissett the following week against NYJ...instead they let Sam Howell go out and get smacked around again, and Brissett entered late and did the same routine as this game – just forcing the action with the team down big and the defense playing prevent...and good things happened, making Brissett look good...but it wasn’t as good as it seemed.
They never did go to Brissett after that...they let Howell work the rest of the season from there (just 2 games). Then, Howell was dumped this offseason...to Seattle.
The Rams were firing on all cylinders most of this game...just unusual Kyren Williams fumbles thwarted things early. This late game collapse kept the points spread down for next week’s game and we took advantage of it.
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- This was the perfect scenario (home/dome vs. terrible Pass D Washington) for Matt Stafford (25-33 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) to be the top QB for FF Week 15...and he blew it. Well, he didn’t blow it...Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua did. If Kyren Williams wouldn’t have fumbled away scoring drives TWICE in the 1st-quarter...and Puka didn’t drop an easy 3rd-down conversion in the red zone, possibly taking it in for a score – Stafford might have had 3-4-5 passing TDs and gunning for 300+ yards. Don’t blame Stafford here...he was on fire as he’s been and had a pretty nice FF tally after all – blame Kyren Williams.
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2024 COMMENTS: No fumble issues detected all season, before or after, for Kyren...this was just a fluke thing.
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-- Another game where Cooper Kupp (8-111-1/8) racks up the bigger numbers over Puka Nacua (5-50-0/8)...it’s been that way a couple weeks in a row now.
It looks to me like teams see what I see, and that’s Stafford is really favoring Puka on his drop backs...so now they are accounting for it hard, and Stafford is smartly adjusting and Kupp is now getting more free range to work against lesser coverages for the first time in years.
I bet teams put their focus back on Kupp this week or next, then we might see Kupp dip back to where he was at 3-4-5 weeks ago (the Kupp crisis) and Puka re-rises, but that’s just a hunch – the trend is with Kupp over Puka for output now, even though the main intent might be for Puka...Kupp is getting the numbers...and both are viable because Stafford is rolling for the past 4 weeks.
The Saints look like a tough matchup on paper, but they’ve been gifted by playing the NFC South a bunch and other soft schedule items. Without Marshon Lattimore, the Saints are not as good on defense.
Demarcus Robinson (2-44-1/3, 1-23-0) is the 3rd-wheel in the passing game...but a hot 3rd-wheel. A TD catch in three straight games...and also note that he had another TD shot in this game from 10+ yards out on a timing fade to the end zone but he wasn’t open/the ball not catchable anyway. It’s a nice run he’s on, but he’s in a 2-3 catch a game pattern (with a high of 4 catches in a game) with 40s-50s yardage output in games...BUT he’s getting the TDs, and that’s FF-worth something, but he’ll FF-sting you if he doesn’t get that TD.
DRob is a random WR3 with WR2 upside and WR4 downside. However, you want to play him for Week 16 or 17....conviction, desperation, luck of the draw, or ‘pass’...any of those outcomes are possible.
-- Kyren Williams (27-152-1, 5-3-0/7) makes me shake my head every week. I wish all my way more talented FF RBs got the same treatment from their O-Cs as Kyren does from McVay. I mean, this guy fumbled twice in a quarter and was putting the game in some peril right away – and yet he still was right back in the game for next series, after each fumble, ultimately getting 32 touches in the game. I am not denying it/Kyren...I just can’t believe it...and it makes me think: Who cares about talent scouting RBs anyway? It’s all about what the coach thinks about/gives to an RB...just ask Jaylen Warren.
-- Sam Howell (11-26 for 102 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was really bottled up/shutdown by this emerging Rams defense. Howell still looks fine/good, but it’s a tribute to the Rams D...and a terrible Commanders O-Line.
Jacoby Brissett (8-10 for 124 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) came in and looked great, but consider he came into a game that was 28-7...that just missed being 31/35-to-7 on the prior Rams drive...and a game that felt like it was really 50+ to 7. So, Brissett entered and faced a softer prevent defense that the Rams tried to just run this clock out on and not give up a big/fast play against...but then they did just that on some good/lucky throws and catches and a broken coverage moment and then all of a sudden Washington is back in it. Brissett’s moment here will be taken out of context and anytime Washington is down in games the rest of 2023, the fans will want Brissett in...but he is not better than Howell, not at all.
-- Curtis Samuel (5-41-2/9...5/8 QS) ended up with 2 TDs, but one was a late lucky one...lucky that Terry McLaurin (6-141-1/12) fell a yard short of the goal line on his 48-yard surreal catch to get them down there...then lucky Chris Rodriquez got stuffed at the goal line...then lucky Logan Thomas (1-7-0/3) caught the TD but it got waived off for OPI...then Samuel got his 2nd TD on the 4th & goal last gasp.
However it is happening...it is happening for Samuel more than it isn’t. Two out of his last 3 games with quality starts. These 2 TDs were the first time he’s had a TD in a game since Week 6. CSam has hope this week, but he’s also a risk that this was a nice blip that rarely gets repeated.
-- No Brian Robinson (DNP) here, so Antonio Gibson (4-15-0, 5-20-0/5) had his shot as a starter...but this game got out of hand fast, and Washington stopped running and started working in Chris Rodriquez (10-35-0) in the 2nd-half and Gibson didn’t really FF-pan out here. Gibson has only had one PPR quality start all season with no rushing TDs.
-- Lucas Havrisik (2/3 FG, 2/2 XP) had a decent FF week, but he had a bad ‘make’ on his first FG, then missed one late – trying to really put this game out of reach. He’s pushing most of his kicks right. He’s been a good FF earner the past 4-5 games, but he’s also been at risk of losing his job 2 weeks ago. He’s not on thick ice right now.
-- Washington-DST has been really bad most all season. Good matchup Week 16 at NYJ...but you can’t really trust them against anybody, in my book...and there are a ton of other options similar to work with.
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2024 COMMENTS: Washington gave up 30 points in a loss to the struggling Jets the prior week. Ron Rivera’s fate had been sealed weeks ago.
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-- The Rams-DST has been better in NFL terms than FF terms. This game was indicative – they were pitching a shutout for a while and were really locking down Washington, but they let up and ended up blowing their FF week with cheap TDs late. All that said...this is a pretty good unit and at NYG Week 17 could be something. Week 16 v. NO might be OK but there are plenty of better options.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Rams defense was good-not-great against NO and NYG the following two weeks...but good enough to win the games...a 4-game win streak to end the season.
The Rams bounced back from their OT loss to the Ravens the prior week with a win here against already past-dead Washington. This win would kick off a 4-game win streak to end the season and result in a playoff berth.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = McLaurin
46 = Dotson
43 = Samuel
48 = Logan T
24 = Bates
27 = Gibson
20 = C Rodrgz
13 = Jon Williams
75 = Kupp
75 = Puka
71 = Drob
47 = Higbee
26 = D Allen
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