INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 11 week in Nov. 2023)
*My Week 9 report from 2023 was done in a video report that dissipates after 6 months of age on Twitch – so no review of it in this series. That was the game where the Rams lost to GB with Stafford out hurt and Brett Rypien starting and playing as badly as you’d expect. No need to go over it – the Rams lost their 3rd-in-a-row to fall to (3-6) going into their bye week and this Week 11 game was their first game off the bye.
Game Overview...
The Seahawks took a fairly commanding 13-0 lead midway through the 2nd-quarter, a lead that coulda/shoulda been 20+ to nothing...and it looked like the Seahawks were set to stay tied for the NFC West lead heading into their Thanksgiving Day matchup with the 49ers.
But it all fell apart from there...and possibly the season/playoffs are at risk now...
The Rams scored before the half, to keep it close 13-7 Seattle. The Seahawks had to settle for another FG to go up 16-7 heading towards the 4th-quarter. But then Geno Smith got whacked and hurt his elbow on his throwing arm and Drew Lock entered and the Seattle downfall began.
The Rams got the lead down to 16-14 with 6+ minutes remaining, and with Seattle trying to run the clock out...Drew Lock threw a pick and the Rams then drove the ball down to chip shot FG range and took the 17-16 lead with 1+ minute remaining. Geno Smith went back into the game, wrecked elbow and all...and he got the team to a 55-yard FG shot to win it at the buzzer, but Jason Myers pushed the kick to the right and Seattle lost a tough one/the Rams win.
This was a MONSTER loss for Seattle, now (6-4). They face SF-DAL-SF-PHI the next 4 games. It’s possible Seattle will be (6-8) after Week 15 and having to win out their final three games (TEN-PIT-ARI) to get to (9-8) to have any chance at a wild card. If Geno is going to miss a game or two ahead...then even more likely Seattle is going to have to scrap their way to the last wild card spot.
A MONSTER win for the Rams (4-6). With Seattle and Minnesota losing, the Rams are suddenly back in the playoff hunt. Their schedule says they’ll finish (8-9) which will either just miss the wild card or be the final wild card. The Rams have beaten Seattle twice this season, so if they tie...the Rams go forward in the wild card seeding. The Rams playoff hopes are not dead yet. They’re very much alive...but they cannot afford to lose a game that they shouldn’t the ROS.
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2024 COMMENTS: Seattle would lose their next three in-a-row from here but some break the losing streak with a Week 15 win over Philly WITH Drew Lock starting that game. Seattle was able to get to (9-8) but they lost out the tiebreaker for the final wildcard spot to the Packers.
This Week 11 game was the turnaround to the Rams season – Stafford was back and they came from behind after a slow start and won it because of Drew Lock having to play and a missed last second FG.
The Rams are about to go on a run and score a lot of points doing so...28 or more points scored in their next 5 games.
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Nothing but trouble for the Seattle FF assets ahead for various reasons: tough schedule and Geno Smith’s (22-34 for 233 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) elbow.
If Seattle loses Geno...the Seahawks WRs are FF-screwed. Or even if just Geno’s elbow takes him down a peg in effectiveness...it’s trouble, especially against SF-DAL-SF the next 3 weeks.
Geno will be a QB2/3 and DKM/Lockett will be WR2/3s the next 3 weeks.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Seattle collapse, the eventual Pete Carroll replacing – it all started with this very unlucky late game action/loss.
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-- Zach Charbonnet (15-47-0, 6-22-0/6) looks great, and should start and be the main guy the next 2-3 games (Walker hurt)...but against SF-DAL-SF he is facing the #4-15-4 run defenses AND likely very limited scoring in general for the Seattle offense AND maybe worse news that Drew Lock starts 1-2 of those games.
The one FF-hope within that is...Charbonnet gets 5-10 dump passes a game out of the backfield due to the pressure coming from SF-DAL-SF, and with Geno possibly arm limited. However, I bet DeeJay Dallas (1-4-0, 1-10-0/1) sees some time in the hurry up passing game as well and takes some easy targets away from ZC.
I’ve been FF-waiting for this moment for Charbonnet, and now that it’s here...it’s a giant dark cloud surrounding it.
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2024 COMMENTS: Charbonnet did look good, but the opponents were tough as advertised and Charb ended up an RB2/3 for his starting role stretch.
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-- Just a final Seattle offensive FF note...
Every time I watch this team, I see Kenneth Walker is good, agile...and Charbonnet is so powerful and all-around impressive...and DKM is a freak and Lockett is such a pro...and Geno is a good game manager NFL QB...I see why these guys are doing their thing, but...
I never see Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3-40-0/6) doing anything that stands out in any way. I’m just noting this, again and again, to let you know...I’m looking, waiting to see what everyone else does...but I never see ‘it’.
I see some ‘it’ with Jake Bobo (1-8-0/2), but not with JSN.
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2024 COMMENTS: I remember getting crucified for not buying into the JSN hype this time last year. Who ever talks about/gets excited about JSN now/today?
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-- Another game where Matt Stafford (17-31 for 190 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looks really good, such a quality NFL passer...but it doesn’t mean crap for FF scoring. Stafford has 0-1 TD passes in a game in eight of his 9 games played this season.
After every game, I think...what’d Stafford have like 250-275 yards passing and a couple TDs? Nope...most games are now 200 +/- passing yards and just 1 TD. Very odd for his attempts and success levels. But the stats don’t lie at this point.
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2024 COMMENTS: After this game, Stafford was gonna finally breakout with a QB1 stretch to end the season.
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-- Cooper Kupp (1-11-0/1) had four stages of notes from this game, and all of them piss me off/scare me to death where I own him (in order of the notes taken as the game progressed):
1) Barely involved in the passing game early.
2) Had a good downfield catch but negated because he pass interfered to get open...he’s having to resort to PI’s to get open now?
3) Followed the PI moment with a dropped TD pass/catch.
4) Then hurt his ankle on a basic play and went out of the game and back to the locker room. Never went back in.
Ankle sprain. Might miss Week 12. If he can play, I need/want that vibe so I can trade him this week. I’ve seen enough. The old Kupp-Stafford connection has transferred to Stafford-Puka. Kupp is not dead, but his name/aura might puff his value for you to move him sideways into some other WR1.5/2.0 with upside...if you can bait someone in a deal for it.
-- If Kupp misses time, Tutu Atwell (1-17-0/3) could perk back up. He only had the one catch in this game, but he had a 40+ yard target ready for a catch but he got P.I.’d because he was open. He also got a 20+ yard TD shot but he was covered well. He later had a 15+ yard laser thrown low, and he fell down to catch the low throw, but he couldn’t haul it in. There was 3-80-1/3 intention that never materialized here.
Not imminent or urgent but Tutu has hope if Kupp is like 2-3 weeks out...or a one-week DFS flier or Prop bet if Kupp is out just one game.
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2024 COMMENTS: Kupp would try to play through the injury, and he wasn’t very good next game either...but then he got on a roll...a TD scored in four of his final 5 games of the season.
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-- Kyren Williams (DNP) will return Week 12 and you can kiss all the other Rams RBs goodbye. Royce Freeman, I guess is the handcuff...but I think they’re about to push Zach Evans into the #3 spot to try and take over. They cut Darrell Henderson, so that must mean Ronnie Rivers is coming back soon too.
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2024 COMMENTS: No hesitation or restricted return for Kyren next week...he would rush for 100+ yards in a game in four of his next 5 games during the Rams breakout.
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-- The Seattle-DST is gonna be dropped all over the place with SF-DAL-SF coming up, but if you’re rocking with Miami-DST, note the Dolphins-DST schedule wobbles Weeks 16-17-18, a key FF playoff time (DAL-BAL-BUF)...while Seattle-DST gets TEN-PIT-ARI in that same stretch.
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2024 COMMENTS: This was the turnaround moment for the Rams...a clutch, but lucky win here and then Kyren returned for the next game and the offense really took off, as well as the defense improving. It was all about to come together.
However, we need to consider who/how they were about to get all these wins against – a pretty bad group of opponents ahead.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Atwell
58 = Puka
46 = Trammell
18 = Kupp
42 = Freeman
24 = DHendo
46 = DKM
44 = JSN
36 = Lockett
26 = Bobo
55 = Charbonnet
07 = Dallas
07 = Walker
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