It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s FINAL matchup (Pre-NFL Draft):
Ross Jacobs
DET v. KC = (KC wins 31-27) I cannot in good conscience give Detroit this win. I don't agree they have done enough to really improve and I'm not even convinced they are the best team in the NFC North (looking at you Green Bay). This team had a massive fatal flaw last year and that was the pass defense.
You cannot win a Superbowl in this era without at least a respectable pass defense. Bringing in DJ Reader does nothing for me. Who cares? They were already good against the run and that means nothing when you're trying to outscore Patrick Mahomes. To fix their atrocious pass defense all they've brought in was Carlton Davis and while he's a solid player they also lost CJ Gardner-Johnson, Tracy Walker, and Cam Sutton. None of those players are great on their own, but it's still three decent players. Unless Detroit drafts multiple good defensive backs this year, I just can't put them in the conversation for top contender. They have to prove me wrong. Until then the Chiefs stay champions.
AndrewDFS
DET vs KC = (DET wins by 1) I’ll keep beating this drum, the Lions were a secondary away from being the SB champions last season. The margin of victory can change dramatically depending on the draft outcome this Thursday. The Lions match up very well against the Chiefs. They have the advantage on both the offensive and defensive line along with a strong rushing attack. I don’t think the Mahomes / Reid combo will be enough in this one.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
DET v. KC = (KC wins 52% of the simulations)
The better offense? Lean Lions? The better O-Line. Deeper at RB. And the Lions have issues at WR talent/depth after Amon-Ra, but KC has nothing close to the impact/talent of ARSB...just aging Travis Kelce. Better O-C...Lions. Mahomes over Goff makes up some of that gap. Maybe ‘even’ overall? Although the Mahomes edge cannot be overlooked, but don’t sell the Lions O-Line edge short.
The Lions may draft their way past KC’s defense, overall...but you have to give the edge to KC.
It’s all even O v. D. – but then give the edge to KC at kicker with Harrison Butker over Michael Badgley...and then new secret weapon punter Matt Ariza for KC really puts it over the top.
Bet The Close Chris
DET v. KC = (KC wins 31-17). I don’t think the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl again, I think they will lose to the Bengals in the playoffs. However, this is the matchup we are dealt and if it happens the Chiefs have an edge at coaching, QB, offense, defense…I’d have to do some research to see if the Lions have better special teams.
I respect the talent on the Lions but you know what they say “when the going gets tough, Dan Campbell gets crazy”. He gets praise for it, but it gives me a headache. I just can’t get past the 2 blah playoff efforts last year, so I enter this season needing to see more for Detroit before crowning them even NFC champs. Love DJ Reader so if all of the defensive pieces come together to be above average then they will have my attention. I’ve seen the defense of the Chiefs do it and I believe they can do it again.
RC
DET v. KC = (KC wins 23-21) When you’re talking ‘finals’ and KC is involved...they have to be the favorite, no? They’ve ‘been there, done that’ for years...where this would be a big step up for Detroit.
These are two evenly matched teams that if they were to meet in the finals in 2024, for real, I bet the Chiefs would add 1-2 veteran pieces for the stretch run because players want to go play there. Detroit is more tribal and would stick with their guys AND not as many players want to be with Dan Campbell. It’s just a fact.
Close matchup, but EDGE to Mahomes.
KC wins the vote 4-1 and wins the whole tournament. Thanks to the voters for their votes and commentary, and thanks to all of those who followed along.
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