It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
AndrewDFS
LAR vs DET = (DET wins by 0.5) In a rematch of last year's Wild Card game, the NFC's top teams prepare for an epic showdown. Both have strengthened thus far in the offseason. The margin between them is slim. As of April 20, 2024, my pick is the Lions. Their Achilles' heel last year was their struggling secondary. Had it been an average unit, they might have easily won the Super Bowl. Setting aside hypotheticals about their dominance over SF with an improved secondary, their offense would have troubled KC's defense with superior offensive line play and a strong running game.
Bet The Close Chris
LAR v. DET = (LAR win 27-24). I’m not sure the panel will vote the Rams past DET, but they should have / could have beat them in their own building this past playoffs so they have the scouting trip under their belts. In my mind the Rams and a good draft away from the bounce back of all bounce backs. We thought they sold out to get Stafford one ring, he may hang around long enough to get one for each hand. We can look at matchups but the trump card is McVay, he’s the matchup that matters here.
RC
LAR vs DET = (DET wins 24-23)
The Lions just feel like a team of destiny in 2024...they had a trip to the Super Bowl in the palm of their hands, and Josh Reynolds (among others) dropped it away...dropped several key passes in the 2nd-half that would’ve helped Detroit keep their big lead/lead and possibly face KC for a second-time last year (the very first game of the season, and then the last...). The Lions were THAT close to being Super Bowl champs.
And the Lions had flaws all last season...a terrible secondary and weak non-Amon-Ra WRs. The Lions have done a nice job securing secondary players in the offseason...and they enter the greatest WR draft of our lifetimes, to fix their WR depth glitch. I assume they do just that and nudge ahead of the oncoming Rams and win here and get to that Super Bowl matchup robbed from them last season – KC v. DET.
Ross Jacobs
LAR v. DET = (LAR wins 30-27) This one is close, and I might change it after the draft. If Detroit gets in gear and takes a really good corner like Max Melton late in the 1st round that will go a long way to solving their biggest issue which is pass defense. But as things stand right now, I like the balance of the Rams a little bit more. Both offenses can score points. The decision comes down to who can stop the other team just one more time, and I think the Rams additions at corner are more impactful even with the loss of Aaron Donald.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
LAR vs DET = (DET wins 52% of the simulations)
Better O-Line = Lions.
Better Defense? A push...both two, young talented defenses with rebuilt-in-progress secondary.
Better offensive weaponry? Maybe a push...with the tipping point being IF Detroit adds an ace WR in this draft with a ton of WR talent, then they can have the edge at QB and O-Line and RB...and be more plausible in a WR comparison.
Too many edges to the Lions, so they get the nod.
The Lions get over the hump, a 3-2 vote win, and go on to the finals of our tourney to face KC.
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