It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Ross Jacobs
MIA v. DET = (DET wins 30-23) This one feels like a no-brainer. Miami lost a lot of pieces on their defense and have not improved in any noticeable way. The draft could theoretically change that, but I have no reason to expect the Dolphins will suddenly have an all-time draft. Detroit just needs to shore up their cornerback room in the draft and they should be one of the top contenders for the Superbowl.
Bet The Close Chris
MIA v. DET = (DET wins 35-7) I’m bullish on the Lions defense heading into next season. Lions have a spot or two to backfill on the OL but I expect the offense to be good again. The Dolphins probably should have lost 2 rounds ago. I think I’m going to trust McDaniel to score a bunch vs bad defenses and struggle with good ones, I already said I think DET D is a good one.
AndrewDFS
MIA v. DET = (DET wins by 3)
The Lions are the better team on offense and defense, but Miami is a challenging matchup for them specifically. If the Dolphins could choose any elite team to face, they would likely pick Detroit. Weather won't be a factor, thanks to Detroit's dome and Miami's favorable climate. While the Lions have strengthened their secondary, it may not be enough to contain Miami's talented wide receivers, particularly Tyreek Hill. Despite the potential for a close game, the Lions should ultimately pull this one out.
RC
MIA v. DET = (DET wins 30-21) I don’t know how Miami got here...a very easy, graceful set of matchups it appears. But they are NO match for the Lions in 2024.
The Lions were the better team in 2023, and they’re continuing the momentum with a smart offseason. While Miami is re-re-making its defense again this offseason, and it doesn’t look all that amazing to me yet.
The Lions had issues at WR and CB last year, and this is the draft to fix that...and they’ve gotten some nice CBs in the offseason already. I don’t see how Miami is better than Detroit top-to-bottom in 2024, so far.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
MIA v. DET = (DET wins 60% of the simulations)
Detroit has the edge at QB and O-Line. A huge push for the Lions here. Miami has better skill position weapons. The defense overall leans Detroit. Coaching edge, playoff momentum edge all goes to Detroit...who really had a chance to win the title last year. This NFL Draft is built for Detroit to fix their remaining issues (CB depth and a playmaking WR)...I assume they will get those things and be on their way.
The Lions get an Elite 8 sweep 5-0 vote win onto the Final 4.
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