It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Bet The Close Chris
PHI v. ATL = (PHI 24-20). I think there is rightful optimism for Atlanta with the addition of Cousins, but if this is early in the season, I need to see that he’s healthy and how much he was able to work with his new offense. I am still a Fangio believer, so I boosted the Eagles for that, and Jalen was clearly Hurts last year. The Eagles are one win better in season win totals, so the Falcons win their division, but the Eagles win this game.
RC
PHI v. ATL = (ATL wins 30-17) The new look, Kirk Cousins-led Falcons are far superior to the fading away Eagles. The Eagles have a bottom tier defense, and their O-Line strength is disappearing. The Falcons were a QB away and new head coach away from being contenders – and now they have these things.
Nick Sirianni will be done as head coach after the 2024 season, if not before it ends...my bold-ish prediction.
Ross Jacobs
PHI v. ATL (PHI wins 35-17) It's only week two and Drake London is leading the league with 30 catches for 410 yards when Josh Huff sneezes on Kirk Cousins causing him to tear his ACL. Bijan Robinson finishes the game as a single-wing QB taking direct snaps, and Philadelphia is inspiring fear around the league with their innovative new offense where they just run the exact same play over and over: all 230 lbs of Saquon Barkley tush-pushing Jalen Hurts forward for 4 yards.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
PHI v. ATL (ATL wins 57% of the simulations)
The Eagles are better than the Falcons on the D-Line and that’s about it, among positions groups...and with the Falcons having a top 5 or so O-Line in the league, it neutralizes any hope Philly had of their D-front saving the day.
The Eagles had one of the three worst defenses in the league last year...arguably the worst down the stretch. They haven’t really gotten any better on defense this offseason. The Falcons had a solid defense last season and should get one of their leaders back for opening day 2024 – ILB Troy Andersen.
The Falcons now have a better O-Line than the dying, fading, aging, Kelce-less Eagles O-Line.
The Falcons weapon group on offense is now better (worst case ‘equal’) across the board at RB-WR-TE as a whole.
QB is a (tush) push. Both QBs are good. I’ll take Cousins to win an NFL game behind the better O-Line.
If your big hope for the Eagles to win/be better here is that Kirk Cousins gets hurt or that he’s hindered in some way...then you’re admitting the Falcons are better, but the QB health is a liability. I assume Cousins will be fine and thus the Falcons are the better team. Aren’t we voting on who is the better team not who might be hurt?
Andrew DFS
PHI v. ATL = (PHI by 2) Both teams boast rosters that are poised for a deep playoff run next year. Philadelphia stole star RB Saquon Barkley from their division rivals, strengthening their rushing attack. The Eagles have also got defensive reinforcements by signing DE Bryce Huff and S Chauncey Gardener-Johnson.
Meanwhile, Atlanta addressed the QB position this offseason by signing Kirk Cousins to a lucrative deal. While the Falcons' roster is talented, they lack experience compared to the Eagles, who made a Super Bowl appearance just two years ago, narrowly losing to the Chiefs.
The closest contest voting yet in this tourney...and the Eagles sneak by 3-2...after known Falcons-lover Andrew DFS stabs his team in the back by voting against them. The Eagles move on.
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