Game Overview...
The Chiefs beat the Bills in the playoffs...again. Since the 2020 season, the Chiefs are (3-0) against the Bills in the playoffs. In that same span, the Bills are (3-0) against KC in the regular season. The football world will assign all kinds of ‘meanings’ (talent-wise, or psychology, etc.) to this playoff game outcome, but either team could’ve won this game – (it looked like) a gale force wind took a chip shot field goal off to the right like one of my tee shots in golf back when I used to (try to) play. Outside of that, this was an evenly matched game that fell to KC. Josh Allen didn’t fail or choke...a kicker missed a kick in swirling winds.
The Chiefs move on to face Baltimore and I think I feel the same way about the game as I did about KC-Buffalo ahead of kickoff...the Chiefs should lose, but why do I know/feel in my gut like they’re gonna win? I hate having those feelings...I like thinking I’m betting on/against things based on some wizardry data or scouting, even if I’m going to ultimately lose that bet...I wanna ‘feel’ like I got it under control, ‘scientifically’. These nagging KC thoughts/feelings, I don’t like it...but it’s there...kinda like the old ‘never bet (ATS) against Tom Brady’ vibes.
Pre-playoffs, I picked Buffalo to go all the way in the AFC...and they let me down again. I wonder if the Bills’ management comes off this game thinking – we’re so close, we should’ve won, let’s bring the band back together and get this in 2024 season...OR, do they think – this group simply cannot get past KC, no matter how hard we try, so let’s blow it up (get rid of Diggs, etc.) and take a year or two to retool and come back better?
If I know the NFL...the Bills will stay the course until they really blow it, like miss the playoffs, etc. I still think Diggs could be traded either way. The Bills are running out of time, as currently constituted. Josh Allen has them propped up from falling to also-rans/disappointments. But now they have time to start thinking about all of that...starting this week, because they are not headed to the Super Bowl...again.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- The main thing that stood out to me in this game was...the Bills moved up in the draft to get Dalton Kincaid (5-45-0/5) for just this very type of moment...to show/use their own ‘Kelce’ and ram it down the Chiefs' throats. Instead, the Bills barely utilized Kincaid all game and when they started to use him a bit late in the game, they also rotated him in-and-out randomly, showing their sheer stupidity. Several key moments late on the final drive for the Bills (the missed FG drive), Kincaid was out...a top weapon not on the field putting pressure on the Chiefs defense.
The Bills deserved to lose.
And...now I’m worried they will continue to be this stupid going into the 2024 season on how they do/don’t use Kincaid. No one will know if they are going to plan, and follow through with a plan, to make Kincaid ‘their Kelce’ in 2024, but no matter what I think/theorize...I don’t really know...and it will haunt me making his projections and valuations all offseason.
-- James Cook 18-61-0, 4-21-0/5) had that one huge game vs. Dallas Week 14, but otherwise this ended up being a very disappointing season from Cook...for FF...from what it could’ve/should’ve been. The Bills simply do not use him as if they think he’s like their Aaron Jones, etc.
Ty Johnson (7-40-0, 1-14-0/1) seemed to get more respect late season...which I like Ty and think he was screwed over by the NFL in his career, but I’m just noting it for 2024+ projections on Cook...it’s something I said all season – it’s not very FF-fruitful being the Bills lead RB under McDermott.
-- I think we saw the last game for Stefon Diggs in a Bills uniform. I don’t know where he’s headed but I think the Bills can see that Diggs is not a ‘must have’ to win a title...or more reality: not a ‘must have’ to just keep losing to KC over-and-over.
Diggs is going to be 31+ years old in the 2024 season and is still due $31M, and is a locker room concern, so it won’t be easy to deal him. Buffalo will have to eat some payroll...but Buffalo is in a BAD place salary cap wise so it’s not going to be easy to deal him and a lot of his contact, but they must send a lot of that payroll to Diggs’ new team...therefore, it will be lesser draft pick/s in exchange in the deal. And then, the Bills would have to go find a veteran #1 WR...and that ain’t easy or cheap.
If I were them, I’d let Gabe Davis walk and I’d send Diggs packing, and then try and sign Darnell Mooney reasonably/cheaply and then add cheaper veteran hands from there. They don’t need a true #1...they can do what Green Bay, or KC for that matter, is doing – a collective at WR (only GB is just deep...KC is rotating mostly garbage, but they’re in the Final Four, so...)...as long as you have a real QB.
-- Patrick Mahomes (17-23 for 215 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-19-0) was efficient in the cold, but it was another non-‘wow’ output game. Mahomes has just one 300+ yard game in his last 11 games this season...and seven of the 11 games with under 250 yards passing in a game. How is that possible with Mahomes? How do we project Mahomes 2024? Depends on his O-C and what they do at WR...and if Kelce retires.
-- Travis Kelce (5-75-2/6) FINALLY had a good FF game...like the old Kelce, but really it wasn’t anything dominant or ‘old Kelce’ like at all. He slipped out open for two TD catches, but they were nothing special...it was nothing that any other TE couldn’t have done.
Kelce does look like he’s losing his fastball, but he’s still in a good spot with Mahomes...especially if KC finds some real WRs to push into the starting lineup for 2024 to help open things up.
If you have Kelce for Dynasty, and you want off of him to ‘sell high’...this may be the best ‘sell high’ moment remaining (coming off 2 TD game). The problem being...everyone is so age adverse in Dynasty that you likely won’t get what it’s worth to make a move.
-- I can’t help but watch Isiah Pacheco (15-97-1, 1-14-0/1) in these playoffs and not have a ‘father’s pride’...those that have been with me through the 2022 NFL Draft scouting and Dynasty Rookie Draft season know what I mean...and you’re forefathers too for believing in my scouting on this.
My note on Pacheco here is: I’m telling you, I’m, telling you, I’m telling Andy Reid and telling numbnuts Matt Nagy – Pacheco is an excellent receiver with untapped potential that KC is not tapping. The next move higher for Pacheco, in FF production...is when KC figures this out consistently.
Pacheco is starting to run real routes and catch passes like a WR the last few weeks...the ‘green shoots’ on him in the passing game are becoming visible of late, but I want it to bloom into a field of luxurious flowers...and not get choked off by lack of nutrients.
-- The Bills held Rashee Rice (4-47-0/4) down and the possible MVP of this game, who had been a total waste of space all year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2-62-0/4) actually caught a pass...no, make that two downfield passes caught and he finally helped the offense for once this season.
This WR group is so pathetic they don’t deserve to win a Super Bowl title, but they’re one win away from making it to the big dance. Next year, everyone from this WR group except Rice will be gone or deeply benched.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Diggs
66 = Sherfield
54 = Shakir
09 = Harty
01 = Isabella
48 = Kincaid
31 = Knox
39 = J Cook
21 = Ty Johnson
14 = Latavius Murray
36 = Pacheco
13 = CEH
42 = Kelce
30 = Gray
32 = R Rice
25 = MVS
22 = J Watson
19 = Mecole
15 = R James
